The Totopoly Kid

Bets on Fri Feb 16 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN: -12 points (within OVERALL: -11)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday): I found the task extra tricky but eventually arrived at a short-list of 5 - over which I feel unconfident as regards both the inclusions and where I've positioned them: FIRST LOVE/LOST (Row 2), BACK NINE/WON & LE PASSING/WON (Row 3), WILLIAM BONNEY/WON (Place Only I), BE TELLING/WON (Place Only II).
My Majority stats are encouraging (at a level less than emphatic except for First Love which is). My Odds stats are solidly encouraging about all except Be Telling. My investment is possibly too high, frankly, despite some capping. (I've 'gone with my numbers' a little more than is typical lately.) Definitely, a blow-out day would be damaging to my present, not over-ample, level of Scope. But, hang it all, I'm overdue a bumper day! I'll need favourable luck, sure, but - unaccountably - my gut says I'll get it today. I nearly did.

Summary (Day 318) C/F to 17 Feb (Day319Month11Week3.3Phase06CDay108) E&OE:
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) deficit = -66 points net @ an average this Phase of -c1 point/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of -485 points gross @ an average of -c5 points/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: **10 B/PL (9 O/A), Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41: but there seems to be an error somewhere of 33 points not so far found], Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300], Nov: 19 (15) [-218] **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost ... I must have won!
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201];  Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])

Row 1 - No qualifier

Row 2
445 Sand. FIRST LOVE/Lost F/c 4/6 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.99 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.52 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.95
Bets: Basic + Capped Mop Up, 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 1 normally, today a small enhancement of the Basic bet), Capped Place Only, 123 (including an EW Treble) & Total Combos, Capped Xtra Combo + LateXtra, Short-list (Place Only) Combo, Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups (including the other Place Only I qualifiers except Dancing Bay), Mistakes: (1) LateXtra/A Combo - omitted Le Passing and included Be Telling instead; (2) somehow backed Whitenzo To Place (in II) instead of Back Nine, Discrepancy (Negligible)     BASIC PLAN -21 plus OVERALL +2

Row 3
300 Sand. BACK NINE/Won F/c 4/7 Min val odds + 20% = 1.56 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.75 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.19
420 Fake. LE PASSING/Won F/c 4/11 Min val odds + 20% = 1.27 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.75 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.25
Bets: Capped Place Only, the 3 Combos + LateXtra     BASIC PLAN -7

Place Only I - on Rows 2 & 3 and
Fake: DANCING BAY/WON (lucky) (Xtra Combo only) - FIDDLING AGAIN/WON
Sand: WILLIAM BONNEY/WON
Wolv: BOSCOBEL/WON(DH) - TYRONE SAM/LOST
Bets: Basic/Capped Basic, Capped Xtra Combo + LateXtra     BASIC PLAN -2

Place Only II
Fake: BE TELLING/Won
Sand: WHITENZO/2ND - OVER THE FLOW/2ND
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN +2

Naps I
LE PASSING/Won (Quadruple stake)
Bets: Capped Basic, 'Double' (today an enhancement of the Basic bet), '2-Row Doubles' (with Row 1 normally, today an enhancement of the Basic bet), Total Combo     BASIC PLAN +19

Naps II
BOSCOBEL/Won (dh) (Double stake)
Bets: Total Combo     BASIC PLAN -2

My Lay bets - Discontinued (for the time being)

Fancy - Potentially worthy rejects from Place Only II
Sand: PRIME BERE/LOST
Bets: Basic Place Only     OVERALL -5

Tips
1) No Main tip [Bets (against advice as this is a Win, occasionally EW, tip): Split of Small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of ? points (for a 'small/large' field) OVERALL]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category, at
Fake: DANCING BAY/Won (53W56L) - LE PASSING/Won (49W32L)
Sand: BACK NINE/Won (55W51L) - WILLIAM BONNEY/Won (55W51L) - FIRST LOVE/Lost (15W12L)
Bets: Basic Place Only     [OVERALL -6]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk):
Added: 120 Arli(RSA) BLACK KITE/WON
             924 Gulf(USA) PACKER SWEEP F/c 6/1/Late result - see tomorrow
Bets: Miniscule Win/2 pt Win on Black Kite In Running    [OVERALL +12]