2007-Feb-14
Diary for Feb 14 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN: +9 points (within OVERALL: +26)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday): I've short-listed 4: CHIEF YEOMAN/WON (Row 2), ENDIAMO/WON (Place Only I), MIDDLETON DENE/3RD & KYBER/UNSEATED (Short List Combo). My Majority stat is excellent about Chief Yeoman and a few notches better than 50/50 for the win about the others. My Odds stats are again excellent about Chief Yeoman, only circa 50/50 or much worse about the others, the which get precedence in my book, earning lowly placing. Apart from on what appears the good chance of Chief Yeoman to win (and any main tip that comes in), I'm risking little on what otherwise looks like a Laura Luck day to me.
Summary (Day 316) C/F to 15 Feb (Day317Month11Week3.1Phase06CDay106) E&OE:
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) surplus = +15 points net @ an average this Phase of +c0 point/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of -399 points gross @ an average of -c4 points/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: **10 B/PL (9 O/A), Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41: but there seems to be an error somewhere of 33 points not so far found], Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300], Nov: 19 (15) [-218] **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost ... I must have won!
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])
Row 1 - No qualifier
Row 2
240 Leic. CHIEF YEOMAN/Won F/c 2/11 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.33 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 13.00 (on only 15 results: 14W1L - I call that "x13") Old stat stakes enhancer x 2.05
Bets: Capped Basic, 2-Row Treble (with Row 1 normally, today a token enhancement of the Basic bet, 123 & Total Combo (today token enhancements of the basic bet), Partially capped Xtra Combo (Sequential Double), Short-list Combo including MIDDLETON DENE/3rd & KYBER/ur, Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Up on Endiamo, Mistake/s if any, Discrepancy (*+0.58) BASIC PLAN +8 plus OVERALL [*-3] adjusted to -2
Row 3 - No qualifier
Place Only I - on Row 2 (Xtra Combo only) and
LingA: ENDIAMO//Won
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo (as above) BASIC PLAN +2
Place Only II
LingA: RESPLENDENT ACE/LOST
Muss: FOLK TUNE/BRIGHT SPARKY/BOTH LOST
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN -2
Naps I & II - No selection
My Lay bets - Discontinued (for the time being)
Fancy - Potentially worthy rejects from Place Only II
LingA: MYSTIC MAN/LOST
Muss: CROCODILE DUNDEE/3RD
Bets: Basic Place Only OVERALL +1
Tips
1) Main tip to hand in BOGUS DREAMS/WON EW F/c 5/1 Definite reject for Basic Plan. I am happy to go with my new policy of halving the stake on EW tips from this source Oops!
Bets (against advice as this is an EW tip): Split of Small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of 8 points (for a 'large' field) [OVERALL +18]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category, at Leic: CHIEF YEOMAN/Won (54W51L)
Bets: Basic Win [OVERALL +1]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk)
Race 3 Phil(USA) DAVID'S DANCE F/c Evs/WON - yesterday
No3 610 Gulf(USA) SWEETSOTHERNBREEZE F/c 2/1/Late result - see tomorrow
More awaited if any - but not expected
Bets: Miniscule Win [OVERALL EVEN (+0.18)]
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