2007-Feb-13
Diary for Feb 12 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN: -37 points (within OVERALL: -58)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday): I've short-listed CHAMOSS ROYALE/LOST (Row 1). My Majority stat is only a notch or two better than 50/50 for the win, but my Odds stats are much more encouraging (not that this guarantees anything). It is, I would say, significantly opposed, however. Plus, there's not much daylight to the 2nd Fav in the F/c odds. So I'm taking a chance. But I feel it should win. Aside from a main tip, if one comes in, Chamoss Royale carries enough in commitment for it to be disappointing if it fails.
Summary (Day 314) C/F to 13 Feb (Day315Month11Week2.6Phase06CDay104) E&OE:
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) surplus = +16 points net @ an average this Phase of +c0 point/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of -410 points gross @ an average of -c4 points/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: **9 B/PL (8 O/A), Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41: but there seems to be an error somewhere of 33 points not so far found], Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300], Nov: 19 (15) [-218] **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost ... I must have won!
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])
Row 1
245
Bets: Capped Basic, '2-Row Double' (with Naps I normally, today an enhancement of the Basic bet), '2-Row Treble' (with Row 2 normally, today a further enhancement of the Basic bet), 123 Combo (today a further enhancement of the Basic bet), Total & Xtra Combos (a combined Sequential Double) It is a Win Only race, so, under my new policy, no Star bet BASIC PLAN -37
Row 2 - No qualifier
Bets (Row 2): Short-list Combo (Flat Basic win bet to day on Chamoss Royale), Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Up on Desert Air, Mistake/s if any, Discrepancy (*+3) OVERALL [*-15] adjusted to -12
Row 3 - No qualifier
Place Only I - with Row 1 (Xtra Combo only)
Plum: DESERT AIR/WON
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo (today a Seq. Double) BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.01]
Place Only II
Plum: SHATABDI/WON/APOLLO LADY/NON RUN - SPIDAM/2ND
Wolv: MOON EXPRESS/2ND/GLORY DAYS/LOST
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN +1
Naps I - No selection
Naps II
Plum: DESERT AIR/Won
Bets: Total Combo (today a Seq. Double) BASIC PLAN -1
My Lay bets - Discontinued (for the time being)
Fancy
Wolv: CANCAN STAR/2ND
Plum: FAIR QUESTION/WON
Bet: Tiny win (4321 bet on Cancan Star)
Potentially worthy rejects from Place Only II
Plum: PARK LANE PRINCESS/LOST
Bets: Basic Place Only OVERALL -2
Tips
1) No Main tip [Bets (usually against advice as this is a Win, occasionally an EW, tip): Split of Small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of ? points (for a 'small/large' field) OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stats for this bet category, at Plum: PARK LANE PRINCESS/Lost (25W30L) - CHAMOSS ROYALE/Lost (49W31L) - SHATABDI/Won (No stat) - SPIDAM/2nd (66W57L)
Bets: Basic Place Only/Win on Chamoss Royale [OVERALL -7]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk)
850 Gulf(USA) No10 EIGHT DAYS APART F/c 6/1/ LOST - yesterday
Race 4 Phil(USA) ARCHOMAN F/c 5/1/Late result - see tomorrow
More awaited if any - no further bets
Bets: Miniscule Win [OVERALL EVEN (-0.07)]
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