The Totopoly Kid

Bets on Sat Feb 10 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN: +48 points (within OVERALL: +30)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday): I've short-listed 5: DENMAN/WON, KAUTO STAR/WON, CHAMOSS ROYALE/NON RUN, OPERA MUNDI/NON RUN (Row 1), OSLOT/2ND (Row 2). My stats are encouraging-to-very-encouraging across the board. Pity the weather is so dodgy.
A proportion of my bets are capped (the multiples severely so in the main), and two races are Win Only without possibility of hedging through Mop Ups. Even so, a fair sum is at risk in aggregate. 'Apprehensively hopeful' describes me today.

Summary (Day 312) C/F to 11 Feb (Day313Month11Week2.4Phase06CDay102) E&OE:
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) surplus = +47 points net @ an average this Phase of -c0 point/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of -362 points gross @ an average of -c4 points/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: **8 B/PL (7 O/A), Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41: but there seems to be an error somewhere of 33 points not so far found], Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300], Nov: 19 (15) [-218] **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost ... I must have won!
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201];  Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])

Row 1
135 Newb. DENMAN/Won F/c 1/2 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stats + 20% = 2.00 (unlikely to be avail) New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 1.96 Old stat stakes enhancer x 2.00
150 Warw. CHAMOSS ROYALE/Non run F/c 4/6 Min val odds + 20% = 2.00 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.96 Old stat stakes enhancer x 2.00
220 Warw. OPERA MUNDI/Non run F/c 4/6 Min val odds + 20% = 2.00 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 1.96 Old stat stakes enhancer x 3.33 (based on 26 results: 20W6L)
240 Newb. KAUTO STAR/Won - just F/c 2/5 Min val odds + 20% = 1.57 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 1.96 Old stat stakes enhancer x 3.33 (based also on 26 results)
Bets: Basic (Capped on Kauto Star & Opera Mundi) + Capped Mop Ups on Kauto Star & Opera Mundi, Capped *Star on Kauto Star & Opera Mundi + Capped Mop Ups (*New policy: no Star Bets on Win Only race qualifiers - except when 2xPlaces are returnable through Betfair), 2-Row Doubles (with Naps 1; uncapped - taking a chance This did well), Token 2-Row Trebles (with Row 2), Capped Place Only on Kauto Star & Opera Mundi, Token 123 & Total Combos (Not Token re the Accums), Capped Xtra Combo     BASIC PLAN +43

Row 2
420 Newb. OSLOT/2nd F/c 8/11 Min val odds + 20% = 1.83 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.55 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.23
Bets: Basic, *FS (1st rung) + Mop Up (*New policy: no FS Bets on Win Only race qualifiers - except when 2xPlaces are returnable through Betfair), 2-Row Treble (with Row 1), Capped Place Only, the 3 Combos (as above), Short-list (Place Only) Combo (except Win Only races), Short-list (Win Only) Combo (today a Sequential Double - changed to a Win bet due to non-runner), Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups (except Win Only races), Mistake: overlooked Place Only bet on Mighty, Discrepancy (Negligible)     BASIC PLAN -8 plus OVERALL -1

Row 3 - No qualifier

Place Only I - Rows 1 & 2 (Denman & Chamoss Royale only in the Xtra Combo), and
LingA: MIGHTY/WON - SOHRAAB/WON
Bets: Basic (Capped re Kauto Star, Opera Mundi & Oslot), Capped Xtra Combo     BASIC PLAN +2

Place Only II
LingA: CUSOON/2ND
Newb: ASHLEY BROOK/2ND - ONYX BRUERE/LOST
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.03]

Naps I 
DENMAN/Won (Double stake)
Bets: Basic, Double (today an enhancement of the Basic bet), 2-Row Doubles (with Row 1), Token Total Combo (Not Token re Accum)     BASIC PLAN +8

Naps II
LingA: MIGHTY/Won - SOHRAAB/Won
Warw: CHAMOSS ROYALE/Non run
Bets: Token Total Combo (Not Token re Accum)     BASIC PLAN +5

My Lay bets - Discontinued (for the time being)
Fancy - Potentially worthy rejects from Place Only II - No selection
Added: win bet on SOHRAAB/Won     OVERALL +2

Tips
1) Main tip to hand (EW) TARLAC/LOST F/c 6/1 Degree of market support, a few Naps, must have a chance
Bets (against advice as this is an EW tip): Split of Small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of 21 points (for a 'large' field) I have decided in future to halve the total stake if the tip is EW    [OVERALL -21]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words) today, including my dedicated stat for this bet category, at
Newb: DENMAN/Won (18W21L) - KAUTO STAR/Won (24W22L)
Warw: OPERA MUNDI/Non run (66W57L)
Bet: Basic Place Only (Win bet on Denman)     [OVERALL +2]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk)
NadA: QUIJANO/WON F/c 7/4/DONO DO RAIA/LOST F/c 10/1 - ASIATIC BOY/WON F/c 8/11 - yesterday
744 Gulf(USA): No1 THUNDER MAB F/c 3/1/2ND - yesterday
744 Gulf(USA): STALWART WOODSMAN F/c 8/1/Late result - see tomorrow
More awaited if any
Bets: Miniscule Win     [OVERALL EVEN (+ 0.43)]