2007-Feb-8
Diary for Feb 08 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN: +12 points (within OVERALL: +7)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday): I've short-listed 3: WISE OWL/WON (Row 1), I'M LOVING IT/WON (Row 2), BE BE KING/FELL (Row 3). My Majority stats are very encouraging about the former two, but weak about the latter (51W80L). My Odds stats show across-the-board encouraging win majorities over losses.
My bets are capped about Wise Owl, so I shall be unhappy if that loses. Otherwise it will hurt, as usual, if there are failures To Place. But, I am hopeful today - fingers crossed.
Summary (Day 310) C/F to 09 Feb (Day311Month11Week2.2Phase06CDay100) E&OE:
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) deficit = -5 points net @ an average this Phase of -c0 point/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of -367 points gross @ an average of -c4 points/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: **6 B/PL (6 O/A) Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41: but there seems to be an error somewhere of 33 points not so far found] Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300] Nov: 19 (15) [-218] **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost ... I must have won!
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])
Row 1
220 Taun. WISE OWL/Won F/c 8/15 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stats + 20% = 1.85 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 2.26 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.62
Bets: Capped Basic + Capped Mop Up, Capped Star + Capped Mop Up, 2-Row Double (with Naps 1, today enhancement of the Basic Bets), 2-Row Treble (with Row 2, today a Sequential Double), Capped Place Only, the 3 Combos BASIC PLAN +19
Row 2
150 Taun. I'M LOVING IT/Won F/c 2/5 Min val odds + 20% = 2.01 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.48 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.62
Bets: Basic, FS (2nd rung) + Mop Ups, '2-Row Treble' (with Row 1, today a Sequential Double), Place Only, the 3 Combos, Short-list (Place Only) 'Combo,' Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups, Mistake/s: Initially I used wrong stats about Wise Owl to work out my stakes adjustments, Discrepancy (Negligible) BASIC PLAN -3 plus OVERALL -3
Row 3
250 Taun. BE BE KING/Fell F/c 10/11 Min val odds + 20% = 1.83 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.81 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.64
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos Beats me why jockeys bustle their mounts close into a late jump when looking booked at worst to place. A modicum more care, I think, & this horse would have won. BASIC PLAN -11
Place Only I - Rows 1, 2 & 3
Bets: Basic (Capped re Wise Owl), Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN -3
Place Only II
Taun: NOBODY TELLS ME/2ND - EVEN MORE/WON - THENFORD STAR/NON RUN/ROCKYS GIRL/3RD
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN +1
Naps I
WISE OWL/Won (Double stake)
Bets: Basic, Double (today an enhancement of the Basic bet), 2-Row Doubles (with Row 1, today further enhancements of the basic bets), Total Combo BASIC PLAN +11
Naps II
Taun: I'M LOVING IT/Won
Bets: Total Combo BASIC PLAN -2
My Lay bets - Discontinued (for the time being)
Fancy - Potentially worthy rejects from Place Only II
SoutA: GRANGE LILI/LOST
Taun: MAGICAL QUEST/LOST/BEAU NASH/3RD
Bets: Basic Place Only OVERALL -3
Tips
1) No Main tip [Bets (usually against advice as this is a Win, occasionally EW, tip): Split of Small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of ? points (for a 'small/large' field) OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words) today, including my dedicated stat for this bet category, at Taun: I'M LOVING IT/Won (48W31L) - WISE OWL/Won (51W56L) - Added GUSTAVO/WON (30W38L) due to non-runners
Bet: Basic Place Only (Win bet In Running on Gustavo) [OVERALL +3]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk)
No2 950 Gulf(USA): SHONE F/c 6/1/LOST - yesterday
1215 Vaal(RSA): LYNN'S EXPRESS/PLACED
550 NadA: MOONER (EW) F/c 7/1/Late result - see tomorrow
Race 9 Gulf(USA): SAVE THAT SONG F/c 12/1/Late result - see tomorrow
More awaited if any
Bets: Miniscule Win [OVERALL -1]
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