The Totopoly Kid

Bets on Wed Feb 07 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN: -55 points (within OVERALL: -57)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday): I've short-listed 5, taking chances on one or two: GUNADOIR/NON RUN & SI FOO/2ND (Row 2), STORYMAKER/NON RUN (Row 3), BURHAAN/3RD & RAIN AND SHADE/2ND (Place Only I). My Majority stats are only encouraging about the Row 2s. My Odds stats just show a majority of wins over losses except about Burhaan and Rain and Shade. On another day on these stats I might have gone with a shorter list, frankly, so far from being emphatic they are. But I've experienced very good days on worse.
My commitment is modest, again, but it would hurt, as usual, if there are failures To Place. I can but be anxiously hopeful today.

Summary (Day 309) C/F to 08 Feb (Day310Month11Week2.1Phase06CDay99) E&OE:
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) deficit = -17 points net @ an average this Phase of -c0 point/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of -374 points gross @ an average of -c4 points/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: **5 B/PL (5 O/A) Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41: but there seems to be an error somewhere of 33 points to be traced] Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300] Nov: 19 (15) [-218] **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost ... I must have won!
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201];  Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])

Row 1 - No qualifier

Row 2
215 Carl. GUNADOIR/Non run F/c 13/8 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stats + 20% = 1.85 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.55 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.27
405 LingA. SI FOO/2nd F/c 4/7 Min val odds + 20% = 2.00 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.54 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.27
Bets: Basic, FS (starting at 1st rung) + Mop Ups (Capped about Si Foo), '2-Row Treble' (with Row 1 normally, today a Sequential Double), Place Only (Si Foo Capped), the 3 Combos (Xtra Combo Capped) + Xtras, Short-list (Place Only) 'Combo,' Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups including BYWELL BEAU/Non run, Burhaan & Rain And Shade, Mistakes: (1) Left out the Accum element of the 123/1 Combo Xtra bet (extra factored into the -/2 Xtra bets to compensate), (2) LateXtras/A1&2: Overlooked I had a third runner to put into LateXtra/1 & forgot to de-cap the stake, Discrepancy (*+1.82)     BASIC PLAN -21 plus OVERALL [*-3] adjusted to -1

Row 3
1250 LingA. BURHAAN/3rd F/c 5/4 Infiltrated on Support (2xNaps,1xNB)
320 Carl. STORYMAKER/Non run F/c 8/11 Min val odds + 20% = 2.00 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.73 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.81
405 LingA. SI FOO/2nd again by infiltration on Support (3xNaps)
Bets: Place Only (on Storymaker), the 3 Combos (as per above) + Xtras     BASIC PLAN -22

Place Only I - Rows 2 & 3 (Storymaker), and
Carl: BYWELL BEAU/Non run
LingA: BURHAAN/3rd - RAIN AND SHADE/2nd
Bets: Basic (Capped on Si Foo), Capped Xtra Combo + LateXtras     BASIC PLAN +1

Place Only II
Carl: TOPAZ LADY/Non run - TRITON/Non run
LingA: KING AFTER/2ND - MASTERSHIP/WON - AAJEL/WON
Ludl: RUBY GALE/Non run
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN +2

Naps I 
SI FOO//2nd (Quadruple stake)
Bets: Basic, Double (today an enhancement of the Basic bet), 2-Row Doubles (with Row 1 normally, today a further enhancement of the basic bet), Total Combo + Xtras     BASIC PLAN -15

Naps II - No selection
My Lay bets - Discontinued (for the time being)

Fancy - Potentially worthy rejects from Place Only II
Ludl: JAZZ CITY/Non run - FREE GIFT/Non run
Bets: Basic Place Only     OVERALL EVEN

Tips
1) No Main tip [Bets (usually against advice as this is a Win, occasionally EW, tip): Split of Small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of ? points (for a 'small/large' field) OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words) today, including my dedicated stat for this bet category, at
Carl: GUNADOIR/Non run (18W21L) - STORYMAKER/Non run (24W22L)
Ludl: No qualifier
Bet: Basic Place Only     [OVERALL EVEN]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk)
750 Phil(USA): No1 GWEN'S SONG F/c 6/1/NON RUN
205 Fair(RSA): HARD LADY/PLACED SP 5/1
No2 950 Gulf(USA): SHONE F/c 6/1/Late result - see tomorrow
More awaited if any
Bets: Miniscule Win     [OVERALL EVEN (-0.48)]