The Totopoly Kid

Results of bets on Tue Sep 26 2006
Day177Month6Week4.5 (Phase 06B Day57)

PROSPECTS
My stats are actually quite encouraging for wins as regards all my Row 3 qualifiers. But every one suffers from a negative or two as well. So, cautiously, I've kept them out of Row 2. Should they all win, I shall do nicely enough via the multiples. But it's entirely possible that one or more will fail. (That is what I expect, in fact.) Usually, when it does, 'damage limitation' is acceptable. Small risk, solid gain on a good day, is the advantage I enjoy from these bets.
OUTCOME
Expectation born out (except that only Lodgician won: the others placed). Damage limitation fine.     OVERALL +25 points (including BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.30])

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Sep Week 4.6 Day178 (Phase B: Day 58)
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) deficit = -339 points @ an average of  -c6/day…..including BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B) deficit = -113 points @ an average of -c2/day
Gain-days in Phase 06B:In Aug: 15 Overall (14 Basic Plan) from 31 bet-days; in Sep: 11 (14)
PLUS
OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) deficit frozen (for comparison purposes) @ -2656 points ... including BASIC PLAN @ -366 points
Gain-days in Phase 06A:
In Apr: 11 Overall from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]

Rows 1 & 2  - No qualifier
Supplementary bet (Row 2): Short-list Combo     OVERALL EVEN [-0.25]

Row 3
220 Sedg. LODGICIAN/WON F/c 8/11 Min value odds according to my 'Odds Configuration' stat + 20% = 2.10 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.33 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.09 Halve stakes as the race is over obstacles First off I put Lodgician into Row 2 but had 2nd thoughts and demoted him/her. Wrong decision, but no regrets.
415 Good. SHOW WINNER/3RD F/c 13/8 Min val odds + 20% = 1.87 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.57 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.70
535 Nott. SEABOW/2ND F/c 11/8 Min val odds + 20% = 1.87 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.57 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.70
550 Sedg. WILLYWONT HE/2ND F/c 5/4 Min val odds + 20% = 1.64 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 3.00 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.70 Halve stakes as over obstacles
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos      BASIC PLAN -1

Naps I - No selection

Naps II
WILLYWONT HE/2nd - see above
Bets: Total Combo   BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.16]

Place Only I - on Row 3 and
Good: LORENA WOOD/WON F/c 6/4 (Xtra Combo bet only)
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo    BASIC PLAN +2

Place Only II - on all, or from,
Good: MOONLIT SKIES/WON
Nott: COMMA/LOST - SOUND OF NATURE/LOST
Sedg: PRIMUS INTER PARES/LOST
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN -1

Fancies
Good: HADAHOO/LOST F/c 3/1
Nott: FRETWORK/3RD F/c11/8
Sedg: THE DUBLIN PUBLICAN/LOST F/C 7/4
Bets: Token Basic (Place Only)  Changed my mind and went 'token win'      OVERALL EVEN [-0.30]

My Lay bets - None

Tips
TIMBERMAN 550 Grey(RSA/LOST
SENSE OF CLASS 800 Dela(USA/Late result - see tomorrow
Bets: Tiny win     [OVERALL EVEN (-0.10)]
No major Lay tip to hand
Win tip to hand was STRONGHOLD/WON F/c 15/8 340 Good. Significant win bet topped up to 40 points Place Only     [OVERALL +27]
Good words to hand SALISHAN 220 Ball(Ire./LOST - DOWN THE BRICK 505 Nott/LOST     [OVERALL EVEN (-0.20)]