The Totopoly Kid

Bets on Mon Feb 05 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN: +28 points (within OVERALL: +46)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday): I've short-listed 4: DOM D'ORGEVAL/WON & KING REVO/WON (Row 2), FRINGE/2ND (Row 3) & BEDLAM BOY/WON (Place Only I). My Majority stats are encouragingly good on the latter three. My Odds stats, however, are strong on only Dom D'Orgeval & King Revo for the win, no better than 50/50 on Fringe and weak on Bedlam Boy.
I may have overdone things on the multiples stake levels, I feel. (Got a bit carried away.) If these do well, I should do all right. (Perhaps the odds are against this, though, on balance.) Single win bets are modestly staked, however, so these can't hurt me unduly if any go/goes wrong - but, as usual, it will be damaging if any of the major 3 short-listed fails To Place. The day could very easily go wrong.

Summary (Day 307) C/F to 06 Feb (Day308Month11Week1.6Phase06CDay97) E&OE:
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) surplus = +38 points net @ an average this Phase of +c0 point/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of -325 points gross @ an average of -c3 points/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: **4 B/PL (4 O/A) Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41: but there seems to be an error somewhere of 33 points to be traced] Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300] Nov: 19 (15) [-218] **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost ... I must have won!
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201];  Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])

Row 1 - No qualifier

Row 2
200 Hexh. DOM D'ORGEVAL/Won F/c 8/13 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stats + 20% = 1.58 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.50 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.67
300 Hexh. KING REVO/Won F/c 4/6 Min val odds + 20% = 1.84 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.53 Old stat stakes enhancer x 2.00
Bets: Basic, FS (Flat on Dom D'Orgeval/Adjusted on King Revo - 1st rung - subject to further adjustment if Dom D'Orgeval loses i.e., up to Rung 2) + Mop Ups (Capped on Dom D'Orgeval), '2-Row Treble' (with Row 1 normally, today a Sequential Double), Place Only (Capped on Dom D'Orgeval), the 3 Combos (the Total Combo Capped) + Xtra, Short-list (Place Only) 'Combo,' Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups including Bedlam Boy, Mistakes: (1) Should have done an Xtra Double within "2-Row Doubles" after Fringe's 2nd, (2) I included Naps II's Bedlam Boy in 123/A Combo (& redid the bet), Discrepancy (Negligible)      BASIC PLAN +20 plus OVERALL +28

Row 3
220 Wolv. FRINGE/2ND F/c 1/2 Min val odds + 20% = 2.20 (not likely to be avail) New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.96 Old stat stakes enhancer x 2.00
350 Wolv. CANADIAN DANEHILL/WON F/c 11/8 Taking a chance, on Infiltration, due to Support (1xNap,1xNB)
Bets: Place Only on Fringe, the 3 Combos (not Canadian Danehill in the Xtra Combo) + Xtras     BASIC PLAN +7

Place Only I - Rows 2 & 3 (except Canadian Danehill), and
Hexh: BEDLAM BOY/Won
Bets: Basic (Capped on Dom D'Orgeval), Xtra Combo + LateXtra    BASIC PLAN +3

Place Only II
Hexh: L'ANTARTIQUE/2ND - BROOK NO ARGUMENT/2ND
LingA: ONE NIGHT IN PARIS/WON
Bets: Basic Bet365 took my Tote Place bets as Tote Win bets in error     BASIC PLAN so far EVEN [+0.07]

Naps I 
FRINGE/2nd (Double stake) - DOM D'ORGEVAL/Won - KING REVO/Won (Double stake)
Bets: Basic, Win Doubles, 2-Row Doubles (with Row 1 normally, today an enhancement of the existing Doubles bet), Capped Total Combo + Xtra     BASIC PLAN -7

Naps II
Hexh: BEDLAM BOY/Won - APRIL SAN/LOST
Bets: Capped Total Combo + Xtra     BASIC PLAN -3

My Lay bets - Discontinued (for the time being)

Fancy - Potentially worthy rejects from Place Only II
Hexh: APRIL SAN/Lost
Wolv: CANDIAN DANEHILL/Won - GLOBAL TRAFFIC/LOST
Bets: Basic Place Only     OVERALL -2

Tips
1) No Main tip [Bets (usually against advice as this is a Win, occasionally an EW, tip): Split of Small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of ? points (for a 'small/large' field) OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words) today, including my dedicated stat for this bet category, at Hexh: KING REVO/Won (50W56L) - BEDLAM BOY/Won (19W21L)
Bets: Basic Place Only     [OVERALL EVEN (+0.49)]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk) 559 Phil(USA) MAPLE SUGAR/NON RUN F/c 2/1 [Bets: Miniscule Win OVERALL N/A]