2007-Feb-3
Diary for Feb 04 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN: +79 points (within OVERALL: +102)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday): I've short-listed 3: DEGAS ART/WON (Row 1), KEY TIME/WON & LE PASSING/WON (Row 2). My (Sundays) Majority stats are good on the former two (though on few results as regards Key Time) but, on just 2 results only 50/50 as regards Le Passing. My Odds stats are emphatically strong on Degas Art & (on 10 results) Le Passing. On Key Time they are just encouragingly good. Forecast Odds on the 2nd Favs., however, suggest that those runners could overturn Key Time and/or Degas Art. The day could easily go wrong (badly so if Degas Art fails to win) but I'm reasonably hopeful it won't.
Summary (Day 306) C/F to 05 Feb (Day307Month11Week1.5Phase06CDay96) E&OE:
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) surplus = +10 points net @ an average this Phase of +c0 point/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of -371 points gross @ an average of -c4 points/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: **3 B/PL (3 O/A) Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41: but there seems to be an error somewhere of 33 points to be traced] Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300] Nov: 19 (15) [-218] **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost ... I must have won!
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])
Row 1
230 Muss. DEGAS ART/Won F/c 4/7 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stats + 20% = 1.31 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 3.14 Old stat Sundays stakes enhancer x 1.80
Bets: Capped Basic, Flat Star, 2-Row Doubles (with Naps I, today an enhancement of the Basic bets), 2-Row Treble (with Row 2), the 3 Combos BASIC PLAN +26
Row 2
200 Muss. KEY TIME/Won F/c 8/13 Min val odds + 20% = 2.01 (not likely to be avail.) New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.43 Old stat Sundays stakes enhancer x 2.00 (based on only 4 results: 3W1L - I call it "x 2.00")
340 Font. LE PASSING/Won F/c 4/9 Min val odds + 20% = 1.30 New odds stats enhancer (Row 1) x 1.96 Old stat Sundays stakes adjuster Zero
Bets: Basic, Flat FS + Mop Ups, 2-Row Treble (with Row 1), Capped Place Only, the 3 Combos, Short-list (Place Only) 'Combo,' Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups on the short-list (except Degas Art) + Bafana Boy, Mistakes: I made a mess of the bets (principally a significant over-bet on Key Time) and I'm left with 3 extra bets due to their recasting, Discrepancy (Nil) BASIC PLAN +25 and OVERALL +22
Row 3 - No qualifier
Place Only I - Rows 1 (Degas Art in Xtra Combo only) & 2, and
Muss: BAFANA BOY/WON
Bets: Capped Basic, Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN +4
Place Only II
Font: BENETWOOD/2ND
Muss: MODICUM/WON
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN +1
Naps I
DEGAS ART/Won (Triple stake)
Bets: Capped Basic, 'Double' (an enhancement of the Basic bet today), 2-Row Double (with Row 1, a further enhancement of the Basic bets), Total Combo BASIC PLAN +19
Naps II
LE PASSING/Won and
Muss: BAFANA BOY/Won
Bets: Total Combo BASIC PLAN +4
My Lay bets - Discontinued (for the time being)
Fancy - Potentially worthy rejects from Place Only II - No selection
Tips
1) No Main tip [Bet (against advice, as this is an EW tip): Split of Small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of ? points (for a 'small' field) OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words) today, including my dedicated stat for this bet category, at Muss: BAFANA BOY/Won (12W16L)
Bets: Basic Place Only [OVERALL +1]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk):
No2 SPY MASTER F/c 8/1 641 Gulf(USA/WON - from yesterday
No1 INVASOR F/c 6/5 1023 Gulf(USA/WON - from yesterday
More tips awaited if any - No bets
Bets: Miniscule Win [OVERALL +1]
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