2007-Feb-2
Diary for Feb 02 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN: +60 points (within OVERALL: +63 )
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday): I've short-listed 2: DON'T PUSH IT/WON (Row 1) & TOT O'WHISKEY/WON (Row 2). I am dependent on Don't Push It to win, especially as it is a Win Only race. I hope for the best. A 'one horse day.'
Summary (Day 304) C/F to 03 Feb (Day305Month11Week1.3Phase06CDay94) E&OE:
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) deficit = -80 points net @ an average this Phase of -c1 point/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of -526 points gross @ an average of -c6 points/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: **1 B/PL (1 O/A) Jan '07: 21 (19) [-41] Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300] Nov: 19 (15) [-218] **Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost ... I must have won!
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])
Row 1
310 Chep. DON'T PUSH IT/Won F/c 1/2 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.32 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 3.00 (based on 28 results: 21W7L) Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.85
Bets: Capped Basic + Capped quasi Mop Up (via the Xtra Combo), Flat Star (should be 5th rung i.e., too steep in Delta Quadrant betting) + Capped quasi Mop Up as per Basic bet, 2-Row Doubles (with Naps I, today a shared enhancement of the Basic bets), 2-Row Treble (with Row 2, today a Sequential Double), the 3 Combos (all at least partially capped) + Xtras BASIC PLAN +21
Row 2
435 Catt. TOT O'WHISKEY/Won F/c 4/6 Min val odds + 20% = 1.59 New odds stats stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.39 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.85
Bets: Basic, 2-Row Treble (with Row 1, today a Seq. Double), Capped Place Only, the 3 Combos (as above) + Xtras, Short-list (Place Only) 'Combo,' Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups on the above & Classic Fiddle, Mistake/s if any, Discrepancy (*-1.67) I have opted not to go for an FS bet today BASIC PLAN +21 plus OVERALL [*+2] adjusted to EVEN [+0.33]
Row 3
130 Chep. CLASSIC FIDDLE/2ND F/c 10/11 Infiltrated here on Support (2xNaps,1xNB)
Bets: The 3 Combos (as above) + Xtras BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.06]
Place Only I - Row 1 (Xtra Combo only) & Rows 2 & 3
Bets: Basic (except Don't Push It), Partially capped Xtra Combo + LateXtra BASIC PLAN +2
Place Only II
Catt: AVIATION/WON/GOLDEN DUCK/2ND
Chep: GASPARA/WON - MIDAS WAY/3RD/PASS ME A DIME/2ND
Bet: Basic BASIC PLAN +6
Naps I
DON'T PUSH IT/Won (Triple stake) - see above
Bets: Capped Basic, 'Double' (today an enhancement of the Basic bet), 2-Row 'Double' (with Row 1, today a shared enhancement of the Basic bets), Total Combo + Xtras BASIC PLAN +11
Naps II
TOT O'WHISKEY/Won - see above
Wolv: PICADOR/Broke Down (Double stake)
Bets: Capped Total Combo + Xtras BASIC PLAN -2
My Lay bets - Discontinued (for the time being)
Fancy - Potentially worthy rejects from Place Only II
Catt: SIR BOREAS HAWK/WON
Wolv: MONDA/2ND
Bets: Basic (Place Only) OVERALL +2
Tips
1) No Main tip [Bet (most often against advice, as this is a Win, or occasionally EW, tip): Split of Small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of ? points (for a 'small/large' field) OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words) today, including my dedicated stat for this bet category, at
Catt: BAYSIDE/LOST (30W38L) - AVIATION/Won (53W50L)
Chep: CLASSIC FIDDLE/2nd/GASPARA/Won (53W50L) - MIDAS WAY/3rd (30W38L)
Bets: Basic Place Only [OVERALL +1]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk):
950 Gulf(USA) BAENA F/c 3/1/LOST - yesterday
1250 Fair(RSA) HULLET'S EXPRESS/WON
950 Gulf(USA) VIGOROUS F/c 8/1/Late result - see tomorrow
More tips awaited if any
Bets: Miniscule Win [OVERALL +1]
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