The Totopoly Kid

Bets on Thu Feb 1st 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN -1 (within OVERALL -31)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday): I've short-listed 4: MEDICI CODE/WON (Row 1), CANADIAN DANEHILL/WON (Row 2), OVER THE CREEK/UR/KARELLO BAY/WON (Place Only I). My stats are emphatically encouraging for the win on Medici Code. (Not that this guarantees anything.) The rest of my stats on this short-list are a mixed bag of contradictions. I hope for the best. Another 'one horse day,' perhaps. No, or only if it had lost.
Frustrating day, I thought. Kept promising to be good and then something would happen to ruin the shape up.

Summary (Day 303) C/F to 2nd Feb (Day304Month11Week1.2Phase06CDay93) E&OE:
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) deficit = -140 points net @ an average this Phase of -c2 point/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of -589 points gross @ an average of -c6 points/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Feb: 0 B/PL (0 O/A) Jan '07: *21 (19) [-41] Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300] Nov: 19 (15) [-218] *Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost ... I must have won!
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201];  Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])

Row 1
350 SoutA. MEDICI CODE/Won 1/7 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.40 (based on only 8 results: 6W2L) New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 2.86 Old stat stakes enhancer x 3.17 (based on 25 results: 19W6L)
Bets: Flat Basic + Capped Mop Up, Capped Star (should be 6th rung) + Capped Mop Up, 2-Row Doubles (with Naps I normally, today a Token enhancement of the Basic bet), 2-Row Treble (with Row 2 normally, today a Token Sequential Double), Capped Place Only, 123 & (capped) Total Combos + Xtra, Partially capped Xtra Combo + LateXtra     BASIC PLAN +1

Row 2
150 SoutA. CANADIAN DANEHILL/Won F/c 8/11 Min val odds + 20% = 1.79 New odds stats stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.50 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.79
Bets: Basic, 2-Row Treble (with Row 1, today a Token Seq. Double), Place Only, the 3 Combos (as above) + Xtras if any, Short-list (Place Only) 'Combo,' Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups on Medici Code & Canadian Danehill, Mistake: wrong split of -/1 Xtra bet which I corrected, Discrepancy (Negligible) I opted not to go for an FS bet today (alas)     BASIC PLAN + 4 plus OVERALL -4

Row 3
400 Towc. OVER THE CREEK/ur F/c 4/7 Infiltrated here on Support (2xNaps,1xNB)
Bets: The 3 Combos (as above) + Xtras     BASIC PLAN -4

Place Only I - Rows 1 & 2 and
Towc: RING BACK/WON - OVER THE CREEK/ur - THREE GUESSES/2ND
Winc: KARELLO BAY/WON
Bets: Basic, Partially capped Xtra Combo + LateXtra     BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.08]

Place Only II
SoutA: MISARO/2ND
Towc: LE BEAU BAI/WON
Winc: LAMANVER HOMERUN/LOST
Bet: Basic     BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.13]

Naps I - No selection
Naps II
KARELLO BAY/Won - OVER THE CREEK/ur - MEDICI CODE/Won - THREE GUESSES/2nd
Bets: Basic (on Medici Code & Three Guesses), Capped Total Combo + Xtras     BASIC PLAN -2

My Lay bets - Discontinued (for the time being)

Fancy - Potentially worthy rejects from Place Only II
SoutA: COUNT COUGAR/2ND
Winc: PARKINSON/UR - TRIGGER THE LIGHT/2ND
Bets: Basic (Place Only)     OVERALL +2

Tips
1) Main tip to hand KINGS SIGNAL/LOST F/c 6/1 240 Winc
Bet (most often against advice, as this is a Win, or occasionally EW, tip): Split of Small Win + (mainly) Place Only, to grand total of 27 points (for a 'small' field) Disappointing run, but possibly finished lame     [OVERALL -27]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words) today, including my dedicated stat for this bet category, at
Towc: OVER THE CREEK/ur (10W9L)
Winc: No selection
Bets: Basic Place Only     [OVERALL -1]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk):
920 Gulf(RSA) EINSTEIN F/c 4/1/LOST - yesterday
1220 Vaal(RSA) HARBOUR MASTER/2ND
425 NadA(UAE) MOONER/2ND F/c 5/1
455 NadA(UAE) DIAMOND QUEST/LOST F/c 6/4
950 Gulf(USA) BAENA F/c 3/1/Late result - see tomorrow
Tips awaited if any
Bets: Miniscule Win     [OVERALL -1]