The Totopoly Kid

Bets on Wed Jan 31 2007
OUTCOME: Another 'Cash-flow buster' of a day BASIC PLAN -94 (within OVERALL -95)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday): I've short-listed 3: SKIPPERS BRIG/2ND (Row 1), NAIAD DU MISSELOT/DH2ND (Row 3) & SI FOO/WON (Place Only II). My Majority stats are encouraging for the win on all. (Not that this guarantees anything.) But Si Foo is significantly opposed by Newmarket and (Nap) Robin Goodfellow; Naiad Du Misselot is in a large field including a sprinkling of newcomers.
I've not 'gone with my numbers' on Skippers Brig as they computed too high for code "Delta Quadrant" betting. So long as Skippers Brig succeeds, I should end the day close to Even if my other bets do badly. It didn't. Thus I didn't. The good month has ended disappointingly. More or less a 'one horse day,' perhaps. Yes, pretty much.

Summary (Day 302) C/F to Thu 1st Feb (Day303Month11Week1.1Phase06CDay92) E&OE:
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) deficit = -139 points net @ an average this Phase of -c2 point/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of -558 points gross @ an average of -c6 points/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Jan '07: *21 B/PL (*19 O/A) Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300] Nov: 19 (15) [-218] *Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost ... I must have won!
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201];  Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])

Row 1
240 Leic. SKIPPERS BRIG/2nd F/c 4/7 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 2.00 (not too likely) New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 2.04 Old stat stakes enhancer x 2.10
Bets: Capped Basic + Capped Mop Up, Capped Star (should be 5th rung) + Capped Mop Up, 2-Row Doubles (with Naps I normally, today an enhancement of the Basic bet), 2-Row Treble (with Row 2 normally, today a further enhancement of the Basic bet), Capped Place Only, (Capped) 123 & Total Combos (combined Sequential Double, hoping for enough time to assess what further to do about the 2nd bet - see Mistake below), Partially capped Xtra Combo + LateXtra     BASIC PLAN -34

Row 2 - No qualifier
Bets: Short-list (Place Only) 'Combo,' Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups, Mistake: got the order of the races wrong on the Seq. Double (what should have been the 2nd bet was made 1st), Discrepancy (*+1.27)     OVERALL [*-3] adjusted to -2

Row 3
220 Newc. NAIAD DU MISSELOT/dh2nd F/c 4/5 Min val odds + 20% = 2.51, New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.51 Old stat stakes enhancer x 3.17 (based on 25 results: 19W6L)
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos (as above) + LateXtra     BASIC PLAN -11

Place Only I - Rows 1 & 3
Bets: Basic, Partially capped Xtra Combo + LateXtra     BASIC PLAN -2

Place Only II
Leic: BACK FOR THE CRAIC/WON/IRIS DE BALME/LOST
LingA: SI FOO/Won/HIGH TRIBUTE/2ND - FUSTAAN/WON - SPOT THE SUBBIE/WON - SPRING GODDESS/3RD
Bet: Basic     BASIC PLAN +1

Naps I
SKIPPERS BRIG/2nd (Triple stake)
Bets: Basic, 'Double' (an enhancement of the Basic bet), 2-Row Double (with Row 1, today a further enhancement of the Basic bet), Capped Total Combo     BASIC PLAN -23

Naps II - No selection
My Lay bets - Discontinued (for the time being)

Fancy - Potentially worthy reject from Place Only II
Newc: BARTON SUN/WON
Bets: Basic (Place Only)     OVERALL EVEN [+0.36]

Tips
1) No Main tip [Bet (most often against advice, as this is a Win, or occasionally EW, tip): Split Small Win/mainly Place Only, to grand total of ? points (for a 'small/large' field) OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words) today, including my dedicated stat for this bet category, at
Leic: SKIPPERS BRIG/2nd (48W31L) - IM SPARTUCUS/LOST (8W20L)
Newc: NAIAD DU MISSELOT/dh2nd (53W50L)
Bets: Basic Place Only     [OVERALL EVEN (-0.29)]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk):
559 Phil(USA) HIGHLAND RAPIDS F/c 6/1/LOST - yesterday
920 Gulf(RSA) EINSTEIN F/c 4/1/Late result - see tomorrow
Bets: Miniscule Win     [OVERALL EVEN (-0.07)]