The Totopoly Kid

Results of bets on Mon Sep 25 2006
Day176Month6Week4.4 (Phase 06B Day56)

PROSPECTS
My stats are encouraging for the win as regards SWISS ACT/WON; but there are negatives, too, and, significantly more so, about OPERA CROWN/WON. These qualifiers could fail. My concession to caution is to locate the latter in Row 3, and to restrict myself to just the Row 2 Basic bet on the former i.e without a Supplementary component.
That said, not a lot of money is at stake on single win bets, but I am vulnerable on the Place Only bet about Swiss Act in that it has computed quite high by recent standards. (I may yet cap it. I didn't.) If this runner fails at least to Place, uncapped, my loss will hurt. (I am assuming, as I write, that Betfair will pay out on 2 Places.)
OUTCOME:     OVERALL +43 points (including BASIC PLAN +43 points)

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Sep Week 4.5 (Day177 Phase B - Day 57)
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) deficit = -364 points @ an average of  -c7/day…..including BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B) deficit = -113 points @ an average of -c2/day
Gain-days in Phase 06B:In Aug: 15 Overall (14 Basic Plan) from 31 bet-days; in Sep: 10 (14)
PLUS
OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) deficit frozen (for comparison purposes) @ -2656 points ... including BASIC PLAN @ -366 points
Gain-days in Phase 06A:
In Apr: 11 Overall from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]

Row 1 - No qualifier

Row 2
345 Hami. SWISS ACT/Won F/c 8/13 Min value odds according to my 'Odds Configuration' stat + 20% = 1.4 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 6.00 (well, "7W1L." I call that '6.00') Old stat stakes reducer x 0.87 It is opposed by a Nap, which is worrying.
Bets: Basic, 2-Row Treble (today just an enhancement of the Basic bet as there is no other qualifier), Place Only, Sequential 123 Combo, Total Combo (+ Xtras), Sequential Xtra Combo, Sequential Short-list Combo Only did partial sequences in the end as I felt enough had been risked on Swiss Act
BASIC PLAN +26 plus OVERALL EVEN [+0.22]

Row 3
320 Bath. OPERA CROWN/Won F/c 4/6 Min val odds + 20% = 2.77 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.96 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.37
320 Bath. DITTO/Won due to Support (2xNPs, 1xNB) Double stake
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos (+ Xtras)      BASIC PLAN +1

Naps I
OPERA CROWN/Won & SWISS ACT/Won - see above
Bets: Basic, Sequential Double, Sequential 2-Row Double (normally with Row 1 but today an enhancement of the existing Double), Total Combo (+ Xtras)     BASIC PLAN +9

Naps II
250 Bath. DESERT STORMLOST F/c 9/4
NOTEWORTHY: A non-qualifier that I had decided to back under "Fancies." So it was a marginal inclusion, here. Really, I should have excluded it.
Bets: Total Combo (+ Xtras)   BASIC PLAN -1

Place Only I - on Rows 2 & 3 and
Brig: SHEBANG/WON
Bets: Basic, Sequential Xtra Combo     BASIC PLAN +8

Place Only II - on all, or from,
Bath: SUPPORT FUND/3RD
Hami: MELPOMENE/2ND/MONTPELLIER/WON
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.31]

Fancies
Bath: DESERT STORM/Lost
Brig: EKTIMAAL/3RD
Hami: FONTHILL ROAD/2ND
Added: OPERA CROWN/WON
Bets: Place Only (Token Basic)      OVERALL EVEN [+0.16]

My Lay bets - None

Tips
LEIOA 706 Dels(USA/LOST
Bets: Tiny win     [OVERALL EVEN (-0.25)]
The Lay tip to hand is PENTATONIC/HRS WON 420 Bath. F/c 9/4. This happens to be Newmarket's Nap. I don't oppose those, so no lay bet for me today. Correct decision, this time
No Major Win tip to hand
No good words to hand