The Totopoly Kid

Bets on Tue Jan 30 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN -9 (within OVERALL -19)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday): I've short-listed 5: CHIEF YEOMAN/2ND (Row 2), HOBBS HILL/WON & IONIAN SPRING/2ND (Row 3), REACH FOR THE TOP/WON (Place Only I), LEADING CONTENDER/2ND (Place Only II). My stats are least encouraging for the win on Reach For The Top, otherwise just good - though, except for Hobbs Hill, not wholly emphatic. (Not that this guarantees anything.) However, they are all opposed - Hobbs Hill by Templegate's Nap.
I've largely 'gone with my numbers' because stake levels have not computed particularly high. But, as there are quite a lot of other bets, a generally bad day would hurt.

Summary (Day 301) C/F to Wed, Jan 31st (Day302Month10Week4.7+3Phase06CDay90) E&OE:
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) deficit = -45 points net @ an average this Phase of -c1 point/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of -463 points gross @ an average of -c5 points/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Jan '07: *21 B/PL (*19 O/A) Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300] Nov: 19 (15) [-218] *Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost ... I must have won!
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201];  Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])

Row 1 - No qualifier

Row 2
240 Taun. CHIEF YEOMAN/2nd F/c 8/13 Min value odds according to my Odds Configuration stat + 20% = 1.99 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.44 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.25
Bets: Basic, FS (4th rung) + Mop Up, 2-Row Treble (with Row 1, today a tiny enhancement of the Basic bet), Place Only, the 3 Combos (Total Combo Capped), Short-list (Place Only) 'Combo,' Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups, Mistake: overbet on 2nd stage of combined Seq. Double, Discrepancy (Negligible)     BASIC PLAN -7 plus OVERALL -14

Row 3
150 Folk. HOBBS HILL/Won F/c 4/5 Min val odds + 20% = 2.77 (not likely to be available), New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.96 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.85
300 SoutA. IONIAN SPRING/2nd F/c Evs Min val odds + 20% = 1.59 New odds stat enhancer (General) x 1.71 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.25
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos (Total Combo Capped)     BASIC PLAN -2

Place Only I - Rows 2 & 3 and
Folk: REACH FOR THE TOP/Won
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo     BASIC PLAN +2

Place Only II
Folk: LE ROCHELAIS/2ND - no bet due to computer problem (delayed start)
Taun: L'OUDAN/3RD - ditto - LEADING CONTENDER/2nd - ditto (no match due to the delay) - NORTON SAPPHIRE/3RD - KING CAINE/LOST
SoutA: ZAR SOLITARIO/2ND - JAZRAWY/WON - no bet due to the delayed start
Bet: Basic     BASIC PLAN -1

Naps I
HOBBS HILL/WON (Triple stake) - see above
SoutA: RAGAD/3RD (Double stake)
Bets: Basic, Sequential Double, 2-Row Double (with Row 1 normally, today an enhancement of the existing Seq. Double), Capped Total Combo     BASIC PLAN -1

Naps II
IONIAN SPRING/2nd, CHIEF YEOMAN/2nd (see above) and
Taun: LEAD ON/WON - NORTON SAPPHIRE/3rd
Bets: Capped Total Combo     BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.20]

My Lay bets - Discontinued (for the time being)

Fancy - Potentially worthy rejects from Place Only II
RAGAD/3rd & LEAD ON/Won - no bet due to my delayed start
Bets: Basic (Place Only)     OVERALL +1

Tips
1) No Main tip [Bet (most often against advice, as this is a Win, or occasionally EW, tip): Split Small Win/mainly Place Only, to grand total of ? points (for a 'small/large' field) OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words) today, including my dedicated stat for this bet category, at
Folk: REACH FOR THE TOP/Won - less matched than intended due to my delayed start/LE ROCHELAIS/2ND - no match due to the problems (46W31L)
Taun: LEADING CONTENDER/2nd - no match as per above (52W50L) - CHIEF YEOMAN/2nd/L'OUDAN/3rd - no bet as per above (64W57L)
Bets: Basic Place Only     [OVERALL +2]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk):
559 Phil(USA) HIGHLAND RAPIDS F/c 6/1/Late result - see tomorrow
Bets: Miniscule Win     [OVERALL N/A]