The Totopoly Kid

Bets on Mon Jan 29 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN -11 (within OVERALL -22)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday): I've short-listed just one: JUNIOR/2ND (Row 2) [Maybe I should have dropped it to Row 3]. My stats, across the board, are very encouraging of the win. (Not that this guarantees anything.) However, Spotlight opposes (the odd-one-out to do so), the field is quite big including several newcomers [one of these won], plus there's little daylight in the F/c odds up to the 2nd fav.
I'm vulnerable to a further reverse, frankly. But, having gone into over-cautious mode following bad days in the past - on too many occasions - I've chanced 'going with my numbers' today, more or less; more in hope, obviously, than expectation.

Summary (Day 300) C/F to Tue, Jan 30th (Day301Month10Week4.7+2Phase06CDay89) E&OE:
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) deficit = -36 points net @ an average this Phase of -c0 point/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of -444 points gross @ an average of -c5 points/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Jan '07: *21 B/PL (*19 O/A) Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300] Nov: 19 (15) [-218] *Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost ... I must have won!
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201];  Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])

Row 1 - No qualifier

Row 2
130 Ludl. JUNIOR/2ND F/c 10/11 Min value odds according to my Odds Config. stat + 20% = 1.83 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.54 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.63 Found one newcomer too good - in a creditable time, apparently
Bets: Basic, FS (3rd rung) + Capped Mop Up, 2-Row Treble (with Row 1, today an enhancement of the Basic bet), Capped Place Only, the 123 & Total Combos (today a combined Sequential Double), Xtra Combo (Win single today), Short-list (Place Only) 'Combo,' Ad hoc Supplementary Capped Mop Up, Mistake: Forgot to back Scotland Yard/LOST Place Only, Discrepancy (*0.34)     BASIC PLAN -13 plus OVERALL [*-14] adjusted to -13

Row 3
JUNIOR/2nd again - by Infiltration on Support (3xNaps,2xNBs) - see above
410 Wolv. EKTIMAAL/WON F/c Evs also by Infiltration (4xNaps,2xNBs)
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos (as per above)     BASIC PLAN EVEN [0.00]

Place Only I - Row 2
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo (Win single)     BASIC PLAN -2

Place Only II
Ludl: THEATRE DIVA/WON
Wolv: EKTIMAAL/Won/THE WRIT/LOST
Bet: Basic     BASIC PLAN +1

Naps I
JUNIOR/2nd (Double stake) & EKTIMAAL/Won (Triple stake)
Bets: Basic, Sequential Double, 2-Row Double (with Row 1 normally, today an enhancement of the existing Seq. Double), Total Combo (Seq. Double)     BASIC PLAN +3

Naps II - No selection
My Lay bets - Discontinued (for the time being)

Fancy - Potentially worthy reject from Place Only II
LingA: JOSH YOU ARE/2ND
Bets: Basic (P lace Only) Rejects rejected from here did well! 6W-3PL-1L-1NR. My criteria may be too severe.    OVERALL +2

Tips
1) No Main tip [Bet (most often against advice, as this is a Win, or occasionally EW, tip): Split Small Win/mainly Place Only, to grand total of ? points (for a 'small/large' field) OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words) today, including my dedicated stat for this bet category, at Ludl: JUNIOR/2nd; plus, in the same race, SCOTLAND YARD/Lost (overlooked) (46W31L)
Bets: Basic Place Only     [OVERALL EVEN (+0.42)]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk): None [Bets: Miniscule Win OVERALL N/A]