The Totopoly Kid

Bets on Fri Jan 26 2007
OUTCOME: WYLDELLO/WON (Row 1) replaced non runner.     BASIC PLAN +25 (within OVERALL +23)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday): Three short-listed  [1W-IPL-1N/R]: EFISTORM/WON & HOBBS HILL/NON RUN (Place Only I) plus, very marginally, ALMATY EXPRESS/2ND (Place Only II). My Majority stat is encouraging of the win only on Efistorm but its Odds stats are, respectively, a little less than 50/50 and much worse. Hobbs Hill Odds stats for the win are, respectively, very encouraging and significantly better than 50/50, but some days I reject runners with its Majority stat of an indifferent 51W80L, hence its location just in Place Only I. It is a moot point whether Almaty Express should be short listed at all, especially as it is opposed by Newmarket's Nap [won], but I am chancing it in Place Only II at a tiny stake. Looks very much a "Laura Luck" day to me.
Apart from bets on a major tip, if one comes in, the above are all on at very small stakes (the - modest - highest levels To Place only), so I'm not risking much. I've no premonition whatever on how the day will go.

Summary (Day 297) C/F to Sat, Jan 27th (Day298Month10Week4.6Phase06CDay86) E&OE:
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) surplus = +139 points net @ an average this Phase of +c2 point/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of -239 points gross @ an average of -c3 points/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Jan '07: *21 B/PL (*19 O/A) Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300] Nov: 19 (15) [-218] *Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost, I must have won.
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201];  Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])

Row 1
150 Here. WYLDELLO/Won [Stats by extrapolation, but against my policy i.e., I prefer not to respond on Consensus Favourites that emerge as a consequence of defections. I have made an exception here because this runner does appear to have an excellent chance.]
Bets: Capped Basic, Capped Star + Capped Mop Up, 2-Row Double (with Naps I normally, today an enhancement of the Basic bet), 2-Row Treble (with Row 2 normally, today a further enhancement of the Basic bet), Capped Place Only, 123 Combo (Sequential Double), Total Combo, Xtra Combo (Seq. Double)     BASIC PLAN +18

Row 2 - No qualifier
Bets (Row 2): Short-list (Place Only) 'Combo,' Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Up on Efistorm & Wyldello, Mistake: Forgot main part of 1st stage of the substantive Xtra Combo bet (Seq. Double), Added: Total/A Combos (due to the addition of Wyldello in the substantive bet i.e., Hobbs Hill included in Total/A), Discrepancy (-0.42 ignored)     OVERALL +2

Row 3
300 Wolv. EFISTORM/Won F/c 6/4 Infiltrated on Support, taking a chance (2xNaps, despite opposed by 1xNB) [For info: Min value odds according to my Odds Config. stat + 20% = 2.40 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.51 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.95]
Bets: Place Only, 123 Combo (Seq. Double), Total Combo, Xtra Combo (Seq. Double with Wyldello today)     BASIC PLAN +2

Place Only I - Row 1 and
Here: HOBBS HILL/Non run
Wolv: EFISTORM/Won
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo (Seq. Double)     BASIC PLAN +2

Place Only II
Here: MALETTON/2ND
Wolv: ALMATY EXPRESS/2nd/CANADIAN DANEHILL/WON - RECIPROCATION/3RD
Bet: Basic     BASIC PLAN +2

Naps I - No selection
Naps II
Here: URSIS/WON (Triple stake) - MALETTON/2nd (Double stake)
Bets: Total Combo     BASIC PLAN +1

My Lay bets - Discontinued (for the time being)

Fancy - Rejects from Place Only II Row
Here: RADNOR LAD/LOST
Wolv: MAGIC AMOUR/LOST - DESERTER/LOST
Bets: Basic (Place Only)     OVERALL -5

Tips
1) No Main tip [Bet (most often against advice, as this is a Win, or occasionally EW, tip): Split Small Win/mainly Place Only, to grand total of ? points (for a 'small/large' field) OVERALL NA]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words) today, including my dedicated stat for this bet category, at Here: PRESIDENT ROYAL2ND (63W57L) - WYLDELLO/Won (HOBBS HILLNon run) (46W31L) - RADNOR LAD/Lost (8W19L) - MALETTON/2nd (49W55L)
Bets: Basic Place Only     [OVERALL +2]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk):
712 Gulf(USA) AUTOBAHN GIRL F/c 9/5/WON - yesterday
CLASSIA 1220 Fair(RSAWON
125 Pau(Fr) CHARADA/LOST
GATHER Fc 20-1 817 Gulf(USA/Late result - see tomorrow
Bets: Miniscule Win     [OVERALL EVEN (+0.37)]