2006-Sep-24
Diary for Sep 24 2006
Day175Month6Week4.3Sunday Mode (Phase 06B Day55)
PROSPECTS
My stats barely edge towards OK for the win on Rows 2 & 3 qualifiers.
No major tips today, so all stakes are all extremely modest.
OVERALL +18 points (including BASIC PLAN +11 points)
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Sep Week 4.4 (Day176 Phase B - Day 56):
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) deficit = -407 points @ an average of -c7/day…..including BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B) deficit = -156 points @ an average of -c3/day
Gain-days in Phase 06B:In Aug: 15 Overall (14 Basic Plan) from 31 bet-days; in Sep: 10 (13)
PLUS
OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) deficit frozen (for comparison purposes) @ -2656 points ... including BASIC PLAN @ -366 points
Gain-days in Phase 06A:
In Apr: 11 Overall from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]
NB Computed stakes levels in "Sunday Mode" are halved except for major tips and minor bets
Row 1 - No qualifier
Row 2
415 Hunt. AMEEQ/WON F/c 5/4 Min value odds according to my 'Odds Configuration' stat + 20% = 2.12 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.10 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.87 Halve stakes as the race is over obstacles
NOTEWORTHY: Ameeq has thrown up marginally as the best option for a win single by my stats: Odds Configuration: 73W68L; New Odds (General): 51W39L (but only 22W20L Row 2); Sunday Majority: 20W23L. It will be mildly interesting to see if results bare out these indications today. (It is a worryingly big field, however. I am taking a bit of a chance, here.)
Bets: Basic, FS, Remedial Supplementary (12th rung) + Mop Up (Computed to a small stake, however, after halving for Sunday Mode and again for over obstacles), 2-Row Treble (today just an enhancement of the the Basic bet as there is no other qualifier), Place Only, the 3 Combos, Short-list Combo
BASIC PLAN +2 plus OVERALL +8
Row 3
235 Hunt. TERRAMARIQUE/WON F/c 2/1 Min value odds + 20% = 2.40 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.51 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.87 Halve stakes as over obstacles
400 Muss. PLANE PAINTER/NON RUN F/c 4/5 Min val odds + 20% = 2.17 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.96 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.89
425 Asco. MAKDERAH/WON F/c 7/4 Min val odds + 20% = 2.80 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) X 1.20 Old stat stakes reducer x Zero
425 Asco. Ditto due to Support (2xNaps) - Double stake indication waived
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos BASIC PLAN +6
Naps I - No selection
Naps II - on Row 3 qualifiers and
340 Hunt. EL DEE/2ND F/c 2/1
Bets: Total Combo BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only I - on Rows 2 & 3 and
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN +2
Place Only II - on all, or from,
FRANKLINS GARDENS/LOST - EL DEE/2nd - TEDSDALE/NON RUN
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN -1
Fancies
Muss: BALLYHURRY/LOST F/c 6/1
Asco: FRANKLINS GARDENS/Lost F/c 5/4
Bets: Tiny win OVERALL EVEN [-0.46]
My Lay bets - None
Tips
SECRET ESCORT 1240 Vaal(RSA)/LOST
Bets: Tiny win [OVERALL (-0.23)]
No Lay tip today
No major Win tip today
Good words on PALOMAR/LOST - FIRENZE/LOST - but no bets for me Correct decision, this time
0 comments | add a comment