The Totopoly Kid

Bets on Thu Jan 25 2007
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN +31 (within OVERALL +12)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday): Four short-listed: SCHUH SHINE/WON (Row 1), SILVER JARO/WON (Row 3), MILAN DEUX MILLE/WON & LUCIUS VERRUS/WON (Place Only I). Majority stats encouraging of the win on Schuh Shine, Silver Jaro & Milan deux Mille. But the odds stats are very encouraging only on Schuh Shine, while on the others they are worse than 50/50 for the win (particularly Milan Deux Mille). With a couple of capped bets on Schuh Shine, it will hurt if those fail. Otherwise, I can't guess how the day will go.

Summary (Day 296) C/F to Fri, Jan 26th (Day297Month10Week4.5Phase06CDay85) E&OE:
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) surplus = +114 points net @ an average this Phase of +c1 point/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of -262 points gross @ an average of -c3 points/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Jan '07: *20 B/PL (*18 O/A) Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300] Nov: 19 (15) [-218] *Break-Even days count as Win ones on the basis that if I haven't lost, I must have won.
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201];  Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL (Phase 06A only) = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])

Row 1
120 Font. SCHUH SHINE/Won F/c 4/7 Min value odds according to my Odds Config. stat + 20% = 1.59 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 1.95 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.23
Bets: Basic, Capped Star + Mop Up, 2-Row 'Double' (with Naps I, today an enhancement of the Basic bet as there is no other selection or qualifier), 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 2, today a further enhancement of the Basic bet), Capped Place Only, the 3 Combos + LateXtra     BASIC PLAN +19

Row 2 - No qualifier
Bets (Row 2): Short-list (Place Only) 'Combo,' Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups on the short-listed runners, Mistake(s), Discrepancy (Negligible) I was late to my computer and matched a win bet In Running on Silver Jaro to replace the Place Only one that had lapsed un-matched     OVERALL +5

Row 3
110 Warw. SILVER JARO/Won F/c 11/8 Min val odds + 20% = 2.40 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.20 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.63
110 Warw. SILVER JARO/Won By Infiltration, on weight of Support (3xNaps,2xNBs)
340 Warw. MILAN DEUX MILLE/Won F/c 11/10 By Infiltration on Support (1xNap,1xNB)
[For info: Min val odds stakes reducer 2.51 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.51 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.63]
Bets: Place Only (once re. Silver Jaro), the 3 Combos + LateXtra     BASIC PLAN +6

Place Only I - Rows 1 & 3, and
Font: CLASSIFIED/FELL (Xtra Combo only)
SoutA: LUCIUS VERRUS/Won
Warw: MILAN DEUX MILLE/Won
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo + LateXtra    BASIC PLAN +2

Place Only II
SoutA: NEVINSTOWN/LOST
Warw: TABORA/WON/INCH PRIDE/LOST - BALLAROYALE/3RD
Bet: Basic     BASIC PLAN +1

Naps I 
SCHUH SHINE/Won - see above
Bets: Basic, 'Double' (an enhancement of the Basic bet), 2-Row 'Double' (with Row 1, an enhancement of the Basic bet), Total Combo     BASIC PLAN +2

Naps II
SoutA: PICADOR/Won
Warw: SILVER JARO/Won
Bets: Total Combo     BASIC PLAN +2

My Lay bets - Discontinued (for the time being)

Fancy - Reject from Place Only II Row
PICADOR/Won
+ GRANAKEY/LOST (same race)
Bets: Basic (Place Only)     OVERALL -1

Tips
1) Main tip to hand is EBORARRY/LOST F/c 7/2 240 Warw
Bet (most often against advice, as this is a Win, or occasionally EW, tip): Split Small Win/mainly Place Only, to grand total of 23 points (for a 'small' field)     [OVERALL -23]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words) today, including my dedicated stat for this bet category, at Font: SCHUH SHINE/Won (51W50L)
Bets: Basic Place Only     [OVERALL EVEN (+0.14)]
3) Other tip/s for fun (at negligible risk):
530 Grey(RSA) WINTER RAINBOW F/c 5/1/LOST - yesterday
1015 Gulf(USA) CATCH MY SMOKE F/c 4/1/LOST - yesterday
245 Gowr(Ir) SOUTHERN VIC & WELL TUTORED/BOTH LOST
335 Nada(UAR) FAIRMILE/WON F/c 11/4
712 Gulf(USA) AUTOBAHN GIRL F/c 9/5/Late result - see tomorrow
Bets: Miniscule Win     [OVERALL EVEN (+0.12)]