The Totopoly Kid

Bet results Sun Jan 21 2007 Sunday Mode selectively applied
Day292Month10Week3.7SPhase06CDay80
OUTCOME: Bad - but 'damage limitation' did operate usefully to a degree     BASIC PLAN -65 (within OVERALL -56)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday):
6 qualifiers for my short-list [2W3PL1L], 3 of them marginal. About EVELITH FORREST/2ND (Row 1), my stats are encouraging for the win across the board but I'll not be risking a Star bet on it and I've decided to apply Sunday Mode (halving the stakes from their already Capped level) as regards win bets [...correct decisions]. I've retained the Place Only bet on it at my standard Capped level, however. ESPRIT SAINT/2ND (Row 3) has good stats in my books but there is not much daylight in the odds between it and the forecast favourite, a worry. It's a similar picture about WARNE'S WAY/2ND (Place Only I). I'm relying on it for a win just in the Xtra Combo. [Esprit Saint's chances were undermined, arguably, by the number of fences being cut by 5]
MILTON DES BIEFFES/WON, TRADING UP/LOST/PU & TANZANITE DAWN/WON enjoy weaker stats in my records and, though short-listed, I've decided, taking a chance, to restrict these to an OVERALL account contribution solely through my Short-List (Place Only) 'Combo' (Row 2) except that I've infiltrated Milton des Bieffes into Row 3 on Support (and Esprit Spirit, too, on a double up i.e., it's in Row 3 twice - to bump up the 123 & Total Combo stakes) .... If Evelith Forrest does not win, I shall incur a deficit ... I think. I am apprehensive of a total blow-out (on an over-commitment); not at all confident. The multiples have computed a touch too high, perhaps. If they fail, and the Place Only bets as well, ...

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Jan Week 4.1 Day 293 (Phase 06C: Day 81)
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) surplus = +64 @ an average this Phase of +c1/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of -302 points gross @ an average of -c4/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Jan '07: *16 B/PL (*14 O/A) Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300] Nov: 19 (15) [-218] *Break-Even days count as Win ones - a ruling I introduced a while back on the basis that if I haven't lost, I must have won.
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201];  Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within  OVERALL Phase 06A only = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])   

Row 1
310 Towc. EVELITH FORREST/2nd F/c 1/3 Min value odds according to my Odds Config. stat +20% = 1.30 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 3.33 (based on only 26 results: 20W6L) Old stat stakes enhancer x 4.80 (based on only 29 Sunday results: 24W5L)
Bets: Capped Basic + Mop Up, 2-Row Double (with Naps I, today an enhancement of the Basic bet), 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 2 normally, today a further enhancement of the Basic bet), Place Only, the 3 Combos + Xtras     BASIC PLAN -23

Row 2 - No qualifier
Bets (Row 2):  Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups on Warne's Way, Evelith Forrest & Esprit Spirit, Ditto the Short-list (Place Only) 'Combo' on these + the other 3 short-listed runners, Mistake/s if any, Discrepancy (Negligible)     OVERALL +3

Row 3
210 Towc. MILTON DES BIEFFES/Won F/c 6/4 Infiltrated on Support (2xNBs)
[For info: Min val odds + 20% = 3.00 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.69 Old Sunday stats stakes reducer x 0.96]
340 Towc. ESPRIT SAINT/2nd F/c 5/4 Min val odds + 20% = 1.59 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.74 Old Sunday stats stakes enhancer x 1.70 (based on only 27 Sunday results: 17W10L)
Ditto ESPRIT SAINT/2nd - Infiltrated as well on Support (3xNaps) to enhance stakes on the Combos
Bets: Place Only (just on Esprit Spirit), the 3 Combos (the Xtra Combo without Milton des Bieffes) +  Xtras     BASIC PLAN -17

Place Only I - Rows 1 & 3 (not Milton des Bieffes) and
Towc: WARNE'S WAY/2nd
Bet: Basic, Xtra Combo + LateXtras     BASIC PLAN -3

Place Only II
Wolv: SNOWY DAYS/2ND/DOWER HOUSE/LOST
Bet: Basic     BASIC PLAN -1

Naps I
EVELITH FORREST/2nd (Triple stake) - see above
Bets: Token Basic, 2-Row 'Double' (with Row 1, today an enhancement of the Basic bet), 'Double' (today a further enhancement of the Basic bet), Total Combo + Xtra    BASIC PLAN -21

Naps II - No selection
My Lay bets - Discontinued (for the time being)
Fancy - No selection

Tips
1) No Main tip [Bet (most often against advice, as this is a Win, or occasionally EW, tip): Split Small Win/mainly Place Only, to grand total of ? points (for a 'small/large' field) OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stat for this bet category, at Towc (arrived late): MILTON DES BIEFFES/Won no bet (3W5L) - EVELITH FORREST/2nd (46W31L) - ESPRIT SAINT/2nd (51W50L) - TANZANITE DAWN/Won (23W22L)
Bets: Basic Place Only     [OVERALL +5]
3) Other tip/s: Discontinued except occasionally @ tiny stakes. (I did a belated AMD check the other day - Alphabetical Monitoring Device ( see below) - which showed its record had deteriorated to "ZZT," too far in deficit to justify persevering with at other than negligible risk.
850 Gulf(USA) LA VIKINA F/c 15/1/Late result - see tomorrow
Bet: Tiny win     [OVERALL N/A]