The Totopoly Kid

Results of bets on Sat Jan 20 2007
Day291Month10Week3.6Phase06CDay79
OUTCOME: Need not have worried (but 'a Laura Luck day' it was)     BASIC PLAN -5 (within OVERALL +12)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday):
Despite the number of meetings, I found only one qualifier for my short-list: MY WAY DE SOLZEN/WON (Row 1). My stats are encouraging for the win across the board but one of my two Odds stats could be better for maximum confidence. No margin for error today except that I shall not be risking a Star bet on it.
If My Way de S. does not win, I shall incur a deficit on the day (unless the outcomes of the bets on the main tip more than compensate). Today is, in my view, "a Laura Luck day." Period. In fact, I incurred a deficit on Basic Plan through the disappointing results on other bets and was bailed out Overall by the subscription tip's win which did "more than compensate.".

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Jan Week 3.7SDay 292 (Phase 06C: Day 80)
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) surplus = +129 @ an average this Phase of +c2/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of -246 points gross @ an average of -c3/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Jan '07: *16 B/PL (*14 O/A) Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300] Nov: 19 (15) [-218] *Break-Even days count as Win ones - a ruling I introduced a while back on the basis that if I haven't lost, I must have won.
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201];  Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within  OVERALL Phase 06A only = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])   

Row 1
300 Hayd. MY WAY DE SOLZEN/Won F/c 2/7 Min value odds according to my Odds Config. stat +20% = 1.97 (not likely to be avail) New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 1.91 Old stat stakes enhancer x 3.00 (based on only 24 results: 18W6L)
Bets: Capped Basic + Quasi Mop Up (today an enhancement of the Capped Basic bet as part of the Xtra Combo), Capped 2-Row Double (with Naps I, today a further enhancement of the Capped Basic bet)), 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 2 normally, today yet further enhancement of the Basic bet), 123 Combo (today a Sequential Double), Total Combo + Xtras, Xtra Combo (today a significant further enhancement of the Basic bet)     BASIC PLAN +6

Row 2 - No qualifier
Bets (Row 2):  Ad hoc Supplementary Quasi Mop Up on My Way de Solzen by way of the Xtra Combo enhancement, Ditto the Short-list Combo, Mistake/s if any, Discrepancy (Negligible)     OVERALL +1

Row 3
320 Winc. ABRAGANTE/2ND F/c 2/1 Infiltrated on Support (1xNap,1xNB)
[For info: Min value odds +20% = 2.64 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.20 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.70]
Bets: 123 Combo as above, Total Combo + Xtras     BASIC PLAN -2

Place Only I - Row 1 (Xtra Combo)
Bet: Significant Xtra Combo     BASIC PLAN +1

Place Only II
KempA: MELPOMENE/LOST
Bet: Basic     BASIC PLAN -4

Naps I
MY WAY DE SOLZEN/Won (Double stake) - see above
Bets: Token Basic, Capped 2-Row 'Double' (with Row 1, today a small enhancement of the Basic bet), Double (today a tiny further enhancement of the Basic bet), Total Combo + Xtras    BASIC PLAN +1

Naps II
Hayd: CARTHALAWN/FELL (Double stake)
KempA: MELPOMENE/Lost
Bets: Total Combo + Xtras     BASIC PLAN -5

My Lay bets - Discontinued (for the time being)

Fancy - No selection

Tips
1) Main tip to hand is MALETTON/WON F/c 5/2 350 Winc
Bet (against advice, as this is a Win tip): Split Small Win/mainly Place Only, to grand total of 16 points (for a 'small' field as there are non-runners)     [OVERALL +17]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stat for this bet category, at Hayd: MY WAY DE SOLZEN/Won (50W50L) - Winc: No selection but I added MANDINGO CHIEF/2ND (10W8L) 'in running' because I liked the look of the 8.2/1 price to win. Nearly did win. Good run.
Bets: Small Win     [OVERALL -1]
3) Other tip/s: Discontinued except occasionally @ tiny stakes. (I did a belated AMD check the other day - Alphabetical Monitoring Device ( see below) - which showed its record had deteriorated to "ZZT," too far in deficit to justify persevering with at other than negligible risk.
Added taking a chance: 952 Gulf(USA) SUSIES GAL/LOST F/c 10/1
Bet: Tiny win     [OVERALL EVEN (-0.05)]