2007-Jan-19
Diary for Jan 19 2007
Day290Month10Week3.5Phase06CDay78
OUTCOME: Exceeded expectations BASIC PLAN +71 (within OVERALL +84)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday):
3 in my short-list: MARKO JADEO/WON & ITALIAN ROMANCE/WON (both Row 2), and PEVENSEY/WON (Place Only I). Each is encouraging for the win according to my Majority stat. PEVENSEY has the weakest Odds stats & gets also into my Row 3 on Support. The strongest Odds stats are on Marco Jadao. The day could end well: I put it no stronger than this.
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Jan Week 3.6Day 291 (Phase 06C: Day 79)
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) surplus = +134 @ an average this Phase of +c2/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of -258 points gross @ an average of -c3/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Jan '07: *16 B/PL (*13 O/A) Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300] Nov: 19 (15) [-218] *Break-Even days count as Win ones - a ruling I introduced a while back on the basis that if I haven't lost, I must have won.
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL Phase 06A only = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])
Row 1 - No qualifier
Row 2
335 Wolv. MARCO JADAO/Won F/c 11/8 Min value odds according to my Odds Config. stat +20% = 1.84 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.46 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.20
505 Wolv. ITALIAN ROMANCE/Won F/c 8/13 Min val odds + 20% = 1.89 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.46 Old stats stakes enhancer x 1.20
Bets: Basic, FS (starting at 1st rung) + Mop Ups, 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 1 normally, today a Sequential Double), Place Only, the 3 Combos + LateXtra, Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups also on Pevensey, Short-list 'Combo' (Place Only), Mistakes: small overbet on Marko Jadeo//Won within the 1st win bet of the Sequential Double, no bets on 1240 Muss as I was late to my computer, no bet on RSA race as I seem to have overlooked to confirm it, Discrepancy (Negligible) Bad day at the office on mistakes! BASIC PLAN +49 plus OVERALL +15
Row 3
110 Muss. PEVENSEY/Won F/c 8/11 Infiltrated on Support (3xNaps,2xNBs)
[For info: Min value odds +20% = 2.68 (not likely to be avail) New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.96 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.63]
Bets: the 3 Combos + LateXtra BASIC PLAN +14
Place Only I - Row 2 and
Muss: STRIKE AN ARK/LOST no bet in error - PEVENSEY/Won
Bet: Basic, Xtra Combo + *LateXtra *should have included Pevensey but I overlooked the bet at that stage (An 'Xtra' mistake! Annoying.) BASIC PLAN +3
Place Only II
Muss: KNOCKARA LUCK/2ND bet not matched
Wolv: DESERT HAWK/LOST
Bet: Basic BASIC PLAN -3
Naps I
ITALIAN ROMANCE/Won (Double stake)
Bets: Basic, 2-Row 'Double' (with Row 1 normally, today a tiny enhancement of the Basic bet), Double (today a further tiny enhancement of the Basic bet), Total Combo + LateXtra BASIC PLAN +4
Naps II
PEVENSEY/Won (Triple stake)
Bets: Total Combo + LateXtra BASIC PLAN +4
My Lay bets - Discontinued (for the time being)
Fancy
I know, I know, I'm supposed to have "discontinued" this Row. But so little is happening...
Muss: STRIKE AN ARK/Lost/KNOCKARA LUCK/2nd - ROMANOV RAMBLER/FELL/MORANDI/FELL
Bets: Multi Fancy (2x2 EW Doubles - 2 points risked in all) OVERALL -2
Tips
1) No Main tip [Bet (usually against advice, as these are Win, occasionally EW, tips): Split Tiny/Small Win/mainly Place Only, to grand total of ? points (for a 'small/large' field) OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stat for this bet category, at Muss: KNOCKARA LUCK/2nd bet not matched (46W31L)/STRIKE AN ARK/Lost no bet in error (2nd rated) - PEVENSEY/Won (60W57L)
Bets: Place Only [OVERALL EVEN (+0.37)]
3) Other tip/s: Discontinued. I did a belated AMD check - Alphabetical Monitoring Device ( see below) - which showed its record had deteriorated to "ZZT," too far in deficit to justify persevering with. However, with so little going on yesterday, I chanced DAY BIRD F/c 4/1 840 Gulf(USA/LOST
also, today, 135 Arl(RSA) SAVANNAH BEAT/WON F/c 7/2 - no bet due to failure to confirm bet. Irritating.
Bet: Tiny win on Bay Bird, Tiny EW on Savannah Beat [OVERALL EVEN (-0.13)]
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