2007-Jan-18
Diary for Jan 18 2007
Day289Month10Week3.4Phase06CDay77
OUTCOME: Main racing called off BASIC PLAN *EVEN (within OVERALL EVEN)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday):
4 in my short-list again: TILAPIA/NON RUN (Row 3) & I'M SO LUCKY/NON RUN (Place Only I), plus WYLDELLO/NON RUN & GARRULOUS/NON RUN (latter two rejected). Apart from Tilapia, each is encouraging for the win on my Majority stat. The exact reverse is true of my Odds stats. Wyldello, indeed, falls within one of my least successful Odds Configuration categories: 6 runners F/c @ under 14/1 (22W43L - I prefer a more favourable stat than this for qualifiers). Each is Opposed, Wyldello by a Nap. Aside from any main tips that comes in, my stakes are tiny.
The above are all quite well favoured "Consensus Favourites," in fact, but it still looks like a "Laura Luck Day" to me.
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Jan Week 3.5 Day 290 (Phase 06C: Day 78)
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) surplus = +63 @ an average this Phase of +c1/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of -342 points gross @ an average of -c5/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Jan '07: *15 B/PL (*12 O/A) Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300 O/a] Nov: 19 (15) [-218] *Break-Even days count as Win ones - a ruling I introduced a while back on the basis that if I haven't lost, I must have won.
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL Phase 06A only = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])
Rows 1 & 2 - No qualifier
Bets (Row 2): Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups on I'm So Lucky & hybrid Mop Up share of the Xtra Combo on Tilapia, Short-list 'Combo' (Place Only on I'm SO Lucky &, in the case of Tilapia, via the Xtra Combo i.e., a further hybrid share), the 3 Combos (123 Combo is a small win bet) + Xtras if any on the other two Combos, Mistake/s if any, Discrepancy (N/A) OVERALL EVEN
Row 3
300 Wolv. TILAPIA/Non run F/c 4/9 Min value odds according to my Odds Config. stat +20% = 1.97 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.72 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.71
Bets: the 3 Combos as per above BASIC PLAN EVEN
Place Only I - Row 3 (in the Xtra Combo) and
Taun: I'M SO LUCKY/Non run
Bet: Basic - no bet, Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN EVEN
Place Only II
Taun: THE REAL DEAL/Non run
Bet: Tiny Basic BASIC PLAN EVEN
Naps I - No selection
Naps II
Ludl: HIGHLAND GAMES/NON RUN (Triple stake)
Taun: I'M SO LUCKY/Non run, WYLDELLO/Non run
Wolv: TILAPIA/Non run
Bets: Total Combo BASIC PLAN EVEN
My Lay bets & Fancies - Both Rows discontinued (for the time being)
Tips
1) No Main tip [Bet (usually against advice, as these are Win, occasionally EW, tips): Split Tiny/Small Win/mainly Place Only, to grand total of ? points (for a 'small/large' field) OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stat for this bet category, at Ludl: No selection - Taun: I'M SO LUCKY/Non run (50W50L)
Bets: Place Only [OVERALL EVEN]
3) Other tip/s: Discontinued. I did a belated AMD check - Alphabetical Monitoring Device ( see below) - which showed its record had deteriorated to "ZZT," too far in deficit to justify persevering with. However, with so little going on, today, I've chanced
No.8 DAY BIRD F/c 4/1 840 Gulf(USA/Late result - see tomorrow
Bet: Tiny win [OVERALL N/A]
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