2007-Jan-17
Diary for Jan 17 2007
Day288Month10Week3.3Phase06CDay76
OUTCOME: Unable to recover from a Win Double failure BASIC PLAN -33 (within OVERALL -29)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday):
4 in my short-list: PANCAKE/WON & THE WHISPERER/3RD (both Row 1), RAPID CITY/WON (Place Only I), (marginally) LORDSWOOD/3RD (Place Only II), all strong on my Majority stat, but my Odds stats on the latter two are worse than 50/50 for the win (Lordswood, moreover, falls within one of my least successful Odds Configuration categories, namely, 6 runners forecast @ under 14/1 [22W43L] - for main bets I prefer a more favourable stat than this). The latter two are also minorly Opposed and, as usual, with All Weather surface qualifers it often pays to be extra cautious.
I'm a little worried that of these only Pancake has been Napped from amongst my list of favoured Naps Table tipsters but it could be the remaining runners are seen as lacking from the perspective of value. I'm hopeful the qualifiers will work out but the day could very easily end disappointingly - a faller, a failure to Place [Note: no Place Only margin for error in Pancake's case whose race is Win Only], and the day will have bombed.
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Jan Week 3.4 Day 289 (Phase 06C: Day 77)
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) surplus = +63 @ an average this Phase of +c1/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of -342 points gross @ an average of -c5/day. Gain-days in Phase 06C: Jan '07: *14 B/PL (*11 O/A) Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300 O/a] Nov: 19 (15) [-218] *Break-Even days count as Win ones - a ruling I introduced a while back on the basis that if I haven't lost, I must have won.
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL Phase 06A only = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])
Row 1
100 Newb. PANCAKE/Won F/c 2/7 Min value odds according to my Odds Config. stat +20% = 1.31 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 3.17 Old stat stakes *enhancer x 2.83 (*based on 23 results: 17W6L)
110 Newc. THE WHISPERER/3rd F/c 5/6 Min val odds + 20% = 1.83 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 2.43 Old stat stakes enhancer x 2.20
Bets: Capped Basic, Flat (i.e., non-stakes adjusted) Star on Pancake only + Capped hybrid Mop Up via the Xtra Combo, 2-Row Doubles (with Naps 1), 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 2 but today an enhancement of the existing Double), Place Only on The Whisperer, Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups on The Whisperer & Rapid City, Mop Up hybrid share (from the Xtra Combo) on Pancake, Short-list 'Combo' (Place Only on 3 of the short-list &, in the case of Pancake, via the Xtra Combo - another hybrid share), the 3 Combos (Capped: 123 & Total), Mistake/s, Discrepancy (Negligible) BASIC PLAN -34 plus OVERALL +2
Row 2 - No qualifier
Row 3
By infiltration (Napsx2), RAPID CITY/Won
Bets: the 3 Combos (Capped: 123 & Total) BASIC PLAN -1
Place Only I - Row 1 (not Pancake except in the Combo) and
LingA: RAPID CITY/Won
Bet: Basic, Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only II
LingA: LORDSWOOD/3rd
Newb: OPERA MUNDI/WON
Newc: WINDS SUPREME/LOST
Bet: Basic BASIC PLAN -2
Naps I
PANCAKE/Won (Double stake)
Bets: Basic, 'Double' (today an enhancement of the Basic bet), 2-Row Doubles (with Row 1), Capped Total Combo BASIC PLAN +3
Naps II - No selection
My Lay bets & Fancies - Both Rows discontinued (for the time being)
Tips
1) No Main tip [Bet (usually against advice, as these are Win, occasionally EW, tips): Split Tiny/Small Win/mainly Place Only, to grand total of ? points (for a 'small/large' field) OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stat for this bet category, at Newb: PANCAKE/Won (46W31L) - CARLITOS/NON RUN - no bet was planned (23W22L)
Newc: THE WHISPERER/3rd (49W55L)
Bets: Basic Win on Pancake, Place Only on The Whisperer [OVERALL +2]
3) Other tip/s: Due to disappointing results, discontinued. Well overdue decision. I've done a belated AMD check (Alphabetical Monitoring Device - see below) on this source of tips (Racing Post's free Pricewise tips, a few, but principally International Zone) and it read "ZZT." QED [OVERALL N/A]
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