2006-Sep-22
Diary for Sep 22 2006
Day173Month6Week4.1 (Phase 06B Day53)
PROSPECTS
My stats are 50/50ish for the win on Row 3 qualifiers. Only the failure of
BIRKSIDE/LOST to Place can hurt me. The rest of the bets are modest in size
OVERALL -30 points (including BASIC PLAN +1 point)
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Sep Week 4.2 (Day174 Phase B - Day 54):
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) deficit = -424 points @ an average of -c8/day…..including BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B) deficit = -163 points @ an average of -c3/day
Gain-days in Phase 06B:In Aug: 15 Overall (14 Basic Plan) from 31 bet-days; in Sep: 9 (12)
PLUS
OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) deficit frozen (for comparison purposes) @ -2656 points ... including BASIC PLAN @ -366 points
Gain-days in Phase 06A:
In Apr: 11 Overall from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]
See "Glossary on the Philosophy" at the end of the latest entry.
Rows 1 & 2 - No qualifier
Supplementary bets: Short-list Combo + Xtras if any, BEJAN SUNSHINE/WON 445 Worc. Place Only (overbet error) OVERALL -1
Row 3
150 Worc. GRAND SLAM HERO/2ND F/c 13/8 Min value odds according to my 'Odds Configuration' stat + 20% = 2.32 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.57 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.64 Halve stakes as the race is over obstacles
300 Worc. LEGAL GLORY/WON F/c 13/8 Min val odds + 20% = 2.32 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.96 Halve stakes as over obstacles
Bets: Place Only, 123 & Total Combos + Xtras if any BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.31]
Naps I - No selection
Naps II
Asco: SCOTTISH STAGE/LOST (Double stake) - INDIAN INK/WON (Triple stake) - QUEEN'S BEST/WON
Worc: LEGAL GLORY/Won (Halve stake)
Bets: Total Combo + Xtras if any BASIC PLAN +1
Place Only I - on Row 3
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.04]
Place Only II - on all, or from,
Hayd: GAP PRINCESS/LOST
Worc: KEY PHIL/WON - RI NA REALTA/LOST - SIRNANDO/NON RUN/BAJANSUNSHINE/WON
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN EVEN [-O.31]
Fancies - None contemplated
My Lay bets - None contemplated
Tips
Late result from yesterday: BABY MELODY 1007 Laur(USA) F/c 2/1/LOST
WHISKEY IN THE JAR 115 Fair(RSA)/LOST
LE DAUPHIN 921 Monm(USA/Late result - see tomorrow
Bets: Tiny win [OVERALL EVEN (-0.20)]
The Lay tip to hand is MIMISEL/2ND 215 Hayd. but it is too well supported for me to Lay, in particular it is Newmarket's Nap (I never oppose these) Wrong decision - this time
The major EW tip to hand is BIRKSIDE/Lost 430 Hayd. F/c 8/1
Bet: Small win, the balance Place Only to 30 points Good run for money [OVERALL -30]
Good word on BLUE BAJAN/WON(Asco) - SKERRIES/LOST (List)
Bet: Tiny win [OVERALL EVEN (+0.28)]
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