The Totopoly Kid

Results of bets on Tue Jan 16 2007
Day287Month10Week3.2Phase06CDay75
OUTCOME: Needn't have worried     BASIC PLAN +23 (within OVERALL +38)
I'd pencilled in 12 further runners, rejected in the end: 3W5PL4L. Only 3 had been in line for Place Only II: 1W1PL1L. The others would have been backed under "Fancies" had I gone with them. Rejection appears, overall, to have been the correct decision.
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday):
3 in my short-list: PARA SIEMPRE/WON, HURLINGHAM/WON (both Row 2) & GLOBAL STRATEGY/WON (Place Only I) are all strong on my Majority stat, but my Odds stats on the latter are 50/50 & slightly worse respectively. Hurlingham sports Blinkers for the 1st time (a worry?), they are all minorly Opposed and, of course, on All Weather surfaces it pays to be cautious, especially in the case of sprints in my view (Para Siempre).
In this situation I find, promising looking days sometimes end disappointingly in a series of 2nds or worse. However, each of these runners appears to have a good chance.
Assuming Para Siempre wins (which failing to, alone, would spoil the day, placed 2nd/3rd or not except as regards damage limitation), so long as they all at least Place, my afternoon could work out acceptably. One failure to Place (unless it is Global Strategy), would significantly undermine the day's account, I think, because the balance of my bets is precarious - a blow-out is by no means even unlikely, I'd say. I mean, 'All Weather' picks? Gloomily, I fear the worst!

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Jan Week 3.3 Day 288 (Phase 06C: Day 76)
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) surplus = +96 @ an average this Phase of +c1/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of -313 points gross @ an average of -c4/day. Maybe the tide is turning? Gain-days in Phase 06C: Jan '07: *14 B/PL (*11 O/A) Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300 O/a] Nov: 19 (15) [-218] *Break-Even days count as Win ones - a ruling I introduced a while back on the basis that if I haven't lost, I must have won.
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201];  Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within  OVERALL Phase 06A only = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])   

 My Glossary on the Philosophy is at the base of this entry.

Rows 1 - No qualifier

Row 2
230 SoutA. PARA SIEMPRE/Won F/c 2/5 Min value odds according to my Odds Config. stat +20% = 1.20 (based on only 7 results: 6W1L - I call this x5 for the stakes adjustment computation begun from the [Token] Base stake [today @ just 0.38 of 1 point for the Basic single bet]) New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.52 Old stat stakes enhancer x 2.15
330 SoutA. HURLINGHAM/Won F/c 4/5 Min val odds + 20% = 1.91 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.44 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.62
Bets: Token Basic, FS on Para Siempre (Capped 1st rung) + Capped Mop Up, 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 1 but today a Sequential Double), Capped Place Only, Ad hoc Supplementary Capped Mop Ups - on Hurlingham (but not Para Siempre) and, not capped, Global Strategy/Won, Short-list (Place Only) 'Combo,' 123 Combo (an enhancement of the existing Sequential Double today), Partially Capped (on Para Siempre) Total Combo, Xtra Combo, Mistake: Forgot small Win bet on Hurlingham, Discrepancy (Negligible)     BASIC PLAN +7 plus OVERALL +15

Row 3 - No qualifier

Place Only I - Row 2 (Capped) and
SoutA: GLOBAL STRATEGY/Won
Bet: Basic, Xtra Combo     BASIC PLAN +5

Place Only II
Wolv: NEW WORLD ORDER/3RD
Bet: Basic     BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.23]

Naps I
PARA SIEMPRE/Won (Double stake)
Bets: Basic (not capped, taking a chance), 'Double' (today an enhancement of the Basic bet), 2-Row 'Double' (with Row 1 normally but today a further enhancement of the Basic bet), Partially capped Total Combo     BASIC PLAN +11

Naps II - taking a chance
SoutA: GLOBAL STRATEGY/Won (Double stake)
Bets: Partially capped Total Combo     BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.41]

My Lay bets & Fancies - Both Rows discontinued (for the time being)

Tips
1) No Main tip [Bet (usually against advice, as these are Win, occasionally EW, tips): Split Tiny/Small Win/mainly Place Only, to grand total of ? points (for a 'small/large' field) OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over obstacles (Good words), including my dedicated stat for this bet category, at Folk: No selection    [OVERALL N/A]
3) Other tip/s: Due to disappointing results, I've discontinuing this category. Well overdue decision, actually. I've only just done an AMD check (Alphabetical Monitoring Device - see below) on this source of tips (Racing Post's free Pricewise and, principally, International Zone tips) and it reads "ZZT." QED