2007-Jan-9
Diary for Jan 09 2007
Day280Month10Week2.2Phase06CDay68
OUTCOME: BASIC PLAN +4 (within OVERALL +8)
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday):
Just one short-listed, HIGHLAND GAMES/WON, but rejected. My Majority stat is not special in its favour and, though 3 have Napped it in the Selection Box, it is also opposed there by a Nap. (I avoid confrontations of expert opinion this firm. Naps are by definition chancy in my book, anyway, or they would not be Naps - due to what I call 'the value seeking factor.') It may well win but my Odds stats on it are just not encouraging enough to include it anywhere. Sometimes my stats work against me.
I very nearly short-listed CLOUDMOR/WON but I've 'infiltrated' it in Row 3 in the end on Support and qualified it just for Place Only I on my (50/50ish) Odds stats. (It is about as close to being short-listed without being short-listed as it is possible to get, the way I do things. The difference this makes is simply that less is chanced on it.)
Aside from the Tips Row, very little risked today. Amounts to a day off, almost.
Another "Laura Luck" day, I would say
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Jan Week 2.3 Day 281 (Phase 06C: Day 69)
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) surplus = +78 @ an average this Phase of +c1/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of -371 points gross @ an average of -c5/day deary me (or should I say 'dreary?' But maybe the tide is turning?). Gain-days in Phase 06C: Jan '07: *9 B/pl (*7 O/a) Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300 O/a] Nov: 19 (15) [-218] *Break-Even days count as Win ones - a ruling I introduced a month or so ago on the basis that "if I haven't lost, I must have won."
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201]; Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within OVERALL Phase 06A only = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])
Rows 1 & 2 - No qualifier
Bets (Row 2): Mistake/s, Discrepancy (*Negligible) OVERALL EVEN
Row 3
335 Sedg. CLOUDMOR F/c 11/8 Infiltrated into this Row on Support (1xNap, 1xNB)
(For info: Min value odds according to my Odds Config. stat + 20% = 2.20 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.96 Old stat stakes reducer x 0.64)
Bets: 123 & Xtra Combos (collectively a tiny win bet today), Total Combo BASIC PLAN +2
Place Only I - on Row 3
Bet: Basic, Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN +3
Place Only II
Sedg: SURRICATE/WON/GUNADOIR/2ND
SoutA: BUSSEL/LOST
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN -2
Naps I
CLOUDMOR/Won (Double stake) - see above
Bet: Tiny Basic, 'Double' (an enhancement of the Basic bet), 2-Row 'Double' (a further enhancement of the Basic bet), Total Combo BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.47]
Naps II
Sedg: SURRICATE/Won (Double stake)
Bet: Total Combo BASIC PLAN EVEN [+0.16]
My Lay bets - Discontinued for the time being
Fancies - No selection
Tips
1) No Main tip [Bet (nearly always, of late, against advice, as these are win, occasionally EW, tips): Split Small Win/Place Only, to grand total of ? points OVERALL N/A]
2) Endorsements over jumps (Good words) including my special odds stat for this category of bets at Sedg: SURRICATE/Won (58W57L) - BRIGHT EAGLE/LOST (41W30L - but no bet) - CLOUDMOR/Won (58W57L)
Bets: Place Only Am pleased with my decision not to go with Bright Eagle, here, one that came about because it had not made it onto Basic Plan [OVERALL +2]
3) 653 Phil(USA) STRONG N SILENT F/c 3/1/WON - from yesterday
1230 Keni(RSA) CAMDEN'S CHOICE/WON
Bets: Small win [OVERALL +3]
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