2006-Sep-21
Diary for Sep 21 2006
Day172Month6Week3.7 (Phase 06B Day52)
PROSPECTS
My stats are encouraging of the win on GLINGERBANK/Won & LORD JAYJAY/Won, so I have taken a chance with Star bets on these as well as the significant Basic ones. It will hurt if either fails, more especially the latter. The Place Only bet on Lord Jayjay (Betfair) has computed to quite a significant size. Thus it will be extra painful if it fails to Place. [Alas, only half the stake got matched.] The rest of the bets are modest in size [except for the subscription tip on CAPANNINA/LOST].
RESULT
OVERALL -1 POINTS (including BASIC PLAN +42 POINTS)
Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Sep Week 4.1 (Day173 Phase B - Day 53):
OVERALL Phase 06B only (wef 01/08/06) deficit = -394 points @ an average of -c8/day…..including BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B) deficit = -164 points @ an average of -c3/day
Gain-days in Phase 06B:In Aug: 15 Overall (14 Basic Plan) from 31 bet-days; in Sep: 9 (11)
PLUS
OVERALL Phase 06A only (01/04/06 to 31/7/06) deficit frozen (for comparison purposes) @ -2656 points ... including BASIC PLAN @ -366 points
Gain-days in Phase 06A:
In Apr: 11 Overall from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938]
Row 1
220 Pert. GLINGERBANK/WON F/c Evs Min value odds according to my 'Odds Configuration' stat + 20% = 1.88 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 2.63 Old stats stakes enhancer x 1.35 Halve stakes as the race is over obstacles
310 Font. LORD JAYJAY/WON F/c 4/9 Min val odds stat + 20% = 1.41 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 1) x 2.00 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.82 Halve stakes as over obstacles
Bets: Basic + Mop Ups, Star (Lower level) + (re Lord Jayjay) Mop Up, 2-Row Doubles (with Naps I), 2-Row Treble (with Row 2 normally but today a Double as there is no 3rd qualifier), Place Only, 123 Combo, Total Combo, Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN +49
Row 2 – No qualifier
Supplementary bet: Short-list Combo OVERALL -2
Row 3
210 Font. CHESS BOARD/2ND F/c 4/7 Min val odds + 20% = 2.77 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.96 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.84 Halve stakes as over obstacles
440 Font. CLASSI MAUREEN/LOST F/c 10/11 Min val odds + 20% = 3.40 New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.69 Old stat stakes enhancer x 1.30 Halve stakes as over obstacles
DITTO/Lost - added due to Classi Maureen's "Support" (the halved stake x 4 i.e., quadrupled)
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos BASIC PLAN -3
Naps I
Font: CHESS BOARD/2nd - see above - CLASSI MAUREEN/Lost (the halved stake x 2 i.e., doubled) - see above
Bets: Basic, Sequential Double, 2-Row Double (with Row 1), Total Combo BASIC PLAN -3
Naps II
230 Pont. DANEHILLSUNDANCE/2ND F/c 13/8
Bets: Total Combo BASIC PLAN -1
Place Only I - on Rows 1 & 3
Bets: Basic, Xtra Combo BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.22]
Place Only II - on all, or from,
Font: GENERAL GREY/2ND/LADINO/LOST
Pont: TEMPELSTERN/3RD
Bets: Basic BASIC PLAN EVEN [-0.13]
Fancies
Pert: ROSSIN GOLD/3RD
Pont: ROCKER/3RD
Bets: Tiny win OVERALL EVEN [-0.28]
My Lay bets - None
Tips
Late result from yesterday: WILD MAPLE Monm(USA/2ND
BABY MELODY 1007 Laur(USA) F/c 2/1/Late result - see tomorrow
Bets: Tiny win [OVERALL EVEN (-0.31)]
The Win tip to hand is CAPANNINA/LOST 300 Pont. F/c 3/1
Bet: Small win, the balance Place Only to 40 points [OVERALL -40]
Good word on CLASSI MAUREEN/Lost - see above
Bet: Tiny win [OVERALL EVEN (-0.10)]
PROSPECTS
My stats are encouraging of the win on GLINGERBANK/Won & LORD JAYJAY/Won, so I have taken a chance with Star bets on these as well as the (non-token) Basic ones. It will hurt if either fails, more especially the latter. The Place Only bet on Lord Jayjay (Betfair) has computed to quite a significant size. [Half of the Place Only bet failed to be matched - due to my error: I forgot it was waiting for one!] Thus it will be extra painful if it fails to Place. The rest of the bets are modest in size [...except for the main tip: which lost and undermined the day almost to the penny.]
However, the difference between a tiny loss and a bit of a profit was my error over the unmatched bet. Oops.
OVERALL -1 POINTS (including BASIC PLAN +42 POINTS)
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