The Totopoly Kid

Results of bets on Sat Jan 06 2007
Day277Month10Week1.6Phase06CDay65

Could go either way
PROSPECTS (as they seemed yesterday)
I have short-listed 6 qualifiers [3W-2PL-1N/R]. My Odds stats for the win are very encouraging on 2, quite encouraging on 1, 50/50ish for the win on 2 of the others, Majority stats favourable on all. But stats that do not fully endorse each other are worth heeding as a warning, I find. So I've cautiously located just 2 in Row 2 for win single bets, 2 in Row 3 for the multiples and 1 each solely in Place Only I & II.
I've seen excellent days on worse indications than these but I cannot be confident over them as the Odds stats could be stronger ideally on 4 of the 6. Good luck will be needed, I feel. It could turn out a good day but it could also bomb. Good day, relatively, until near the end when it fell away a bit. But my main bet of the day was at Chepstow (abandoned) - I'd chanced only small amounts elsewhere
OUTCOME  After 18 consecutive losers, my subscription tipsters finally came up with a winner! Of course, I had only my usual split bet on it, but no regrets     BASIC PLAN +6 (within OVERALL +29)

Financial Summary E&OE:-
C/F to Jan Week 1.7 Day 278 (Phase 06C: Day 66)
BASIC PLAN (Phase 06C only wef 01/11/06) surplus = +62 @ an average this Phase of +c1/day .... within OVERALL Phase 06C deficit of -385 points gross @ an average of -c6/day deary me (or should I say 'dreary?' So far, anyway). Gain-days in Phase 06C: Jan '07: *6 B/pl (*5 O/a) Dec '06: 16 (11) [-300 O/a] Nov: 19 (15) [-218] *Break-Even days count as Win ones - a ruling I introduced a month or so ago on the basis that "if I haven't lost, I must have won."
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06B: 01/08/06-31/10/06) = +204 points .... within OVERALL (Phase 06B only) = +41 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06B: Aug:- 14 Basic Plan (Overall 15) [-105 O/a]; Sep: 15 (13) [-201];  Oct: 17 (18) [+347])
PLUS B/f BASIC PLAN (Phase 06A: 01/04/06 to 31/7/06) = -366 points ..... within  OVERALL Phase 06A only = -2656 points gross (Gain-days in Phase 06A: In Apr: Overall 11 from 29 bet-days [-957]; May: 15 from 31 [-174]; Jun: 15 from 30 [+408]; Jul: 15 from 31 [-1938])   

Row 1 - No qualifier

Row 2
1250 Chep. EVELITH FORREST/NON RUN F/c 4/7 Min value odds according to my Odds Config. stat + 20% = 1.59 New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.40 Old stat stakes enhancer x 2.05
1255 LingA. SALFORD MILL/WON F/c 4/11 Min val odds + 20% = 1.99 (not that it is likely to be avail.) New odds stat stakes enhancer (Row 2) x 1.40 Old stat stakes enhancer x 2.05
Bets: Token Basic, FS (Zero rung) + Mop Ups, 2-Row 'Treble' (with Row 1, but today a Double), Place Only, Ad hoc Supplementary Mop Ups, Short-List (Place Only) 'Combo' (an enhancement of the Place Only bets @ Basic Place Only I stake levels), Mistake: Forgot to cap my Total Combo 5-Fold accum. (5 runners), likewise the Xtra Combo, Discrepancy (*+0.48)     BASIC PLAN +2 plus OVERALL [+4] *adjusted to +5

Row 3
100 Sand. PAUILLAC/WON F/c 4/9 Min val odds + 20% = 2.20 (not that it is likely to be avail.)  New odds stat stakes reducer (General) x 0.96 Old stat stakes enhancer x 2.05
520 KempA. LOPINOT/2ND F/c 11/8 Min val odds + 20% = 1.83 New odds stat stakes enhancer (General) x 1.75 Old stat stakes enhancer x 2.05
Bets: Place Only, the 3 Combos + Xtras if any    BASIC PLAN +2

Place Only I - on Rows 2 & 3 and
LingA: BRONTE'S HOPE/WON
Bet: Basic (Capped on Evelith Forrest), Xtra Combo + LateXtras if any    BASIC PLAN +1

Place Only II
Chep: CLOSED SHOP/NON RUN
Hayd: SCARVAGH DIAMOND/WON - HARMONY BRIG/LOST
KempA: EKTIMAAL/WON
LingA: SHRINE MOUNTAIN/3RD - missed bet/CETSHWAYO/LOST - missed bet
Bets: Basic     BASIC PLAN -1

Naps I
PAUILLAC/Won & EVELITH FORREST/Non run  See above on these
Bets: Basic, Double, 2-Row Double (with Row 1, but today a tiny enhancement of the existing Double), Total Combo + Xtras if any     BASIC PLAN +3

Naps II
LingA: FAJR/WON (Double stake)
Bets:  Total Combo    BASIC PLAN +1

My Lay bets - Discontinued for the time being

Fancies - on all the above (except Fajr) but including only Shrine Mountain & Closed Shop from Place Only II, plus
Chep: DOM D'ORGEVAL/NON RUN
Hayd: ROMAN ARK/WON
Sand: PREACHER BOY/2ND
Bets: Multi Fancy (EWTrebles)
EKTIMAAL/Won/LOPINOT/2nd & SHRINE MOUNTAIN/3rd/CETSHWAYO/Lost
Bets: 2x2 EWDoubles, Xtra/1     OVERALL +1

Tips
1) Main tip was BOHEMIAN SPIRIT/WON F/c 3/1 205 Sand
Bet (always against advice, as these are win tips, occasionally EW): Split Small Win/Place Only, to grand total - for a "small" field race - of 15 points     [OVERALL +18]
2) Endorsements over jumps (Good words) at Chep: EVELITH FORREST/Non run - CLOSED SHOP/Non run - Hayd: SCARVAGH DIAMOND/Won - Sand: PAUILLAC/Won
Bets: Place Only     [OVERALL +1]
3) Other tips (USA Nap added after all): PASTEL GAL F/c 6/1 810 Gulf(USA/LOST - from yesterday
NAR F/c 5/2 Gulf(USA/WON
ROCK GODDESS F/c 2/1 540 Grey(RSA/LOST
Sand: PERCE ROCK/2ND - ORCADIAN/LOST - NADOVER/3RD
Bet: Small or tiny win     [OVERALL -2]