29 November 2006 - TUESDAY: Catch-up time

Not been able to post for several days, so time to bring everyone up to speed with my betting diary:

Tuesday 28-11-10-2006

Making sure I always get value when making my selections paid off handsomely today. I offered up nine selections to back in all, but of these only two selections achieved the value prices I advised. Zazous won at 13/8 but those betting on Betfair could have backed him at 9/4 during the course of the morning. My other selection lost, but I was left with over a point clear profit.

My only lay bet was unsuccessful. I advised going against Fair Question if you could lay below 1.90 He won at an official Starting Price of 5/6 (1.83 decimal price) so for the purposes of my published results that will go down as a lost bet. Some of you may not have been able to lay at SP so you may well have decided not to bet, and avoided this one.

Monday 27-11-2006

Three lay bets today, including a long odds-on chance. I chose to lay Reve En Blue at Folkestone for much the same reason as Lanmaver Homerun last Wednesday. Another Paul Nicholls/Ruby Walsh combination artificially depressing the price. Moreover, this was the horse's first time out on any public race course and you never know how a horse will react to the environment. At such a short price of 11-10 it was easy to oppose.

I also advised opposing Chamoss Royale at 4/11 but this bet was unsuccessful. Another successful lay bet meant I broke even for the day. My only back-to-win selection failed to achieve the value price I advised so it was a 'no bet'.

Sunday 26-11-2006

I grafted yet another small profit today, thanks largely to my successful lay bet selection Swift Sailor which presented me with 3 points profit. The horse was stepping up in class, and in handicap company I judged a fair price should have been around the 5/1 mark. He was sent off at 5/2 which was way too short, and a great value bet to lay. I advised 3 points.

I suggested two horses to back, but two subsequent runners up meant I gave back 2 points profit.

So, its been hard work to make a profit this week, but I have managed to do just that. My lay bets have supported the loss made by my back-to-win selections, but overall my account has moved forward by more than 4 points. Although I would prefer both services to be showing profit every week, the net result is entirely satisfactory and in line with my objective to make 20 points profit per month.

Profits over past seven days -- Lay Bets: 11pts, Back-to-Win Selections: 6.5 points loss

Saturday 25-11-2006

I managed a small profit by laying two horses today. In the Fulke Walwyn handicap chase at Newbury, I had hoped the form Opera Mundi had shown over hurdles would not translate on his first public display over fences. On this occasion he won very comfortably, but at just 13/8 the price justified the risk. I re-couped this loss by laying Bob Bob Bobbin' later in the afternoon at Newcastle for two points profit.

One short-priced winner followed by two losing bets meant the back-to-win selections lost a point, and once again the account overall remains pretty much unchanged from one day to the next.

Friday 24-11-2006

Just the one lay bet selection today. I felt the handicapper had caught up with the Matuza colt and he would find the 2lb rise in the weights just too much. I got stuck in for 3 points profit.

Not the same story of success with my back-to-win selections, although the results were the same - all three failed to win! The profit from my lay bets was nullified, and for the second day running my account remains unchanged, but undamaged.

Thursday 23-11-2006

Two points clear profit today from my lay bets. I proposed three horses to members of my service this morning, but I have enhanced the service by advising what I consider to be a value price for each of my selections. My members are advised to lay the horse only if they can lay below a certain price. I never claim that my lay bet selections will not win their race - but I do claim that their price will be too short compared to their actual chance of winning. If you consistently lay bets on horses that are over-bet then you will make a profit long term - this is precisely how bookmakers have made their living for generations.

I gave Heez A Dreamer as a selection at Uttoxeter, but at the price of 6/4 or lower. This advice saved my clients a lost bet as the horse was 3/1 and did not represent value to anyone looking to lay the bet - a non-bet.

I managed just one winner from my back-to-win selections, and lost two points in all. So at the end of the day my account showed no change.

Wednesday 22-11-2006

Three from four of my selections won today, with the fourth coming in a runner-up. I managed to get particular value on Daryal when I was able to back at 2/1 on Betfair. The horse was eventually backed right in to 11/8 before winning comfortably. Over three points profit in all.

My three lay bets were also successful, and added a further 6 points profit to advised stakes. Lanmaver Homerun was a classic trainer/jockey combination creating a falsely low price, and hence great value for layers. Any horse trained by Paul Nicholls and ridden by Ruby Walsh will carry a weight of expectancy, and attract the money. However, closer examination of the form showed the horse was stepping up two levels in class, and had never jumped hurdles before in public. The price of 6/4 was easily short enough for me to lay the bet.

At the end of a very satisfactory afternoon, I was 9 points to the good

Max Redd has been making a living from horse racing for over ten years. He runs the Redd Racing betting advisory service and you can try his service FREE at www.ReddRacing.co.uk