2006-Oct-9
Is a strike rate of 100% a good thing?
Is a strike rate of 100% a good thing?
Seems like this question has an obvious answer. But, 'obvious' isn't necessarily right. AND, it certainly isn't right in this case.
Earlier in the year, I came up with a new laying system. It only selects one or two horses per week, on average. Since I came across this system, it has selected 53 horses and all of them have lost. Should I jump for joy? Nope!
Here's why:
100% systems don't exist - not on this planet anyways. If they do, this system isn't one of 'em.
One of these days, the system is going to start selecting more than the odd winner (losing bet). 'Til then, I haven't got a clue what the true strike rate of the system is. All I know isthat it isn't 100%. Until I find that out, I don't know if the system is any good or not. 'Tis a strange world that we live in.
So, is a system with a 100% strike rate a good thing? Well, maybe not!
Psycho
www.laythepsychicway.com
2006-Oct-9
Yes a strike rate of 100% is definately a good thing
I don\'t know what your sample size is of succesive wins, but a high strike rate is to be valued highly, in my opinion.
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<br>Assuming that it continues it means you win each time, which is obviously good. As long as stakes are proportionate to the size of the bank, then all should be rosy. The risk is in commiting too high a proportion of your bank, on a given bet, and thereby having it wiped out by results that don\'t go your way, when they eventually come along.
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<br>The main thing is not to commit such a high proportion of your bank that a few losses can do it severe damage.
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<br>Risk management is explained in detail in Joseph Buchdal\'s book which as a former statistical analyst I highly recommend.
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<br>Basically, statistical analysis of your betting record to calculate your \"edge\" over a series of bets, in conjunction with a staking plan which manages risk seems to be the way to go.
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<br>FIXED ODDS SPORTS BETTING - Joseph Buchdal
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2006-Oct-9
Fenlandtiger
Hi Fenlandtiger
My sample size is 53 - it's not big, granted. But how many systems do you know where you make 53 bets and they all win!
My point was not the above, however.
My point was, until I go through the eventual loss-cycle, I won't know the system's true strike rate. Until this happens, I won't know whether it's profitable or not. That was my point.
BUT, thanks for the info about the stats guy. Will get hold of a copy and study it.
Psycho
www.laythepsychicway.com
Edited by psycho on 2006-Oct-10 at 7:11 AM
