To lay short or long-priced horses - that is the question (with appologies to the great bard)
Let's ask the question - is it more profitable to lay the longer-priced nags than the shorter-priced ones?
The perception is that it is more profitable to lay the shorter-priced nags than the longer ones.
Why?
Because the perception is that longer-priced nags on exchanges such as Betfair differ from SP by margin which grows exponentially as the SP increases. Therefore, the smaller the SP, the closer is the Betfair price to SP. As such, longer-priced nags don't represent 'good value'.
The other reason why people prefer to stay away from the longer-priced nags is that when they win, you can get creamed. Well, that's down to personal choice - to get slightly creamed often - as a result of laying the short-priced nags or to get totally creamed but far less frequently - as a result of laying the longer-priced nags.
Well, those are the perceptions - and you are very welcome to 'em.
Now here's some facts, my friends:
Have a look at my postings on my blog. Have a look at the losing bets (winning horses). Notice anything? Yes, the nags that win are the shorter-priced ones!!! Now there's a surprise.
Now go onto any web site that gives out free tips. There are lots to choose from. On those sites, there are lots of laying systems. Select one at random - it doesn't matter which as long as it has at least a 3 month history and as long as it can be verified that the tips were posted before the off. (Some post after the event - such cheek).
OK.
Now decide on an odds cut-off point. Let's say 10/1? If you don't like 10/1, select another one. It really doesn't matter where the odds cut-off point is.
If the odds of the selected nag is above the cut-off point - it's a no bet. Now, using the odds cut-off point, calculate a P/L for at least the last 3 months. Now calculate another P/L for the same time period without the odds cut off point. Now compare the two P/L's.
Now select a different system on a different web site and do the same again etc.
I've done this lots of times and have found the same thing time after time. The greater P/L is the one that doesn't employ an odds cut-off point. In other words, contrary to perception, there is greater value in the longer-priced nags than in the shorter ones.
I once came across a layer called Mr Mindyerbeak who was very successful and a jolly good person to boot. He wouldn't touch the short-priced nags with a barge pole. And he didn't do badly at all.
I also came across a guy called Terry19 who had a laying system called 'the so simple system'. He was an exceptionally nice fella. For a time, it was very successful. He had an odds cut-off of 5.9. In the end, he had to suspend it because of the losses that it was incurring.
What's been happening for years is that the bookies have been under-valueing odds. A horse that they offer at say 100/1 really should be offered at about 150-200/1. In the past, they have been able to get away with it due to a lack of competition. Betfair has now provided a playing field which is a little more level.
So, reality v's perception. You choose and good luck.
Psycho