2006-Sep-25
Unpredicability?
The system, in the past, has won between 1 and 2 points per day. In an average month, it wins between 50 - 60 pts.
In the first week that I posted the tips on this wesite, it won what it usually does in a typical month i.e 4 times its normal number of points. The past week's losses were therefore to be expected given how much it won the previous week. Even so, the sytem is still winning at a rate which is above its normal target, so worry not.
The reasons for these ups and downs is the time of year and the weather.
At this time of year, three things are happening:
Trainers are trying to get one last race (at least) out of their charges before the end of the season. As a result, there are too few races and too many horses. Therefore, the availability of races is dictating whether a horse runs and in which race, not the horse's fitness and race suitability (as is normally the case). As a result, a typical race contains more horses than usual, a different mix than usual and a different level of fitness than usual. The result is more unpredictability than ususal and races become more of a lottery than a race. This presents the punter with more challenges than usual. Bigger fields mean bigger prices and bigger prices mean that larger losses than usual can be incurred if one happens to be a layer.
In addition, we are in the midst of a changeover period from flat to NH, but the changeover is, as yet, incomplete. We therefore have a mix of races which only occurs twice a year (at racing code changeover).
To make matters worse, we have the weather to contend with. We have had an unseasonably dry and hot period and ground conditions are not normal for this time of year. Horses are therefore running on atypical ground, and given that their performance is, to some extent, ground-related, their performance can also atypical. As a result, horses which would be expected to win, arn't and horses that are not expected to win, are.
To make matters even worse we have had a period where an unusually high number of horses have been withdrawn. This gives the remaining horses in the race a greater chance of winning and leads to even greater unpredictability.
The total result is complete and utter chaos and unpredictable results giving rise to large, unpredicable swings in punters fortunes. This is stretching even my psychic powers a tad.
Strangely enough, although my selections are created by four individual systems, the conditions, identified above, are only affecting one system in particular. The other three remain completely unaffected.
Psycho
0 comments