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13/9

Thursday, 13 September 2007

13/9

Dresden Doll 20/1and Geestring 12/1 unplaced, Morinqua 11/1 unplaced, Seta Pura 13/2 and Trip the light 9/1 unplaced, Oxbridge 33/1 and Green earings 7/1 unplaced, Irving place 14/1 unplaced and Russian Reel 8/1 2nd, Bronze Cannon 33/1 and Landikyaya 14/1 unplaced, Gallant HEro 4th 10/1 and Gone tomorrow 5th 18/1, Chandlers Cross unplaced 9/2, Are you there 7th 18/1,
PRICE GAPS, My condor won well at a decent 11/8 (relative to usual prices on price gaps) - the early morning price gap in the live market proved the clincher. Ravarino came nowhere, and Iguazu Falls won as he should at 1/3

EACH WAY
It's becoming clear these speculative bets are, well, too speculative as we are not seeing a return. There's a couple of hard luck stories, I think it's now 2 25/1 2nds and a 20/1 2nd place, one of these in a photo which would have, naturally , added a whole different complexion to things. I will continue out if interests sake and see if I can tweak things. Outsiders do win, as seen by a 100/1 winner in, guess what?, a maiden. A look at the races I chose, and oftentimes, the favourites don't win.
230 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Barliffey, Confidence Trick, 5/1 WeÂ´Re Delighted, 10/1 Always Certain, Celt, 12/1 Saafend Geezer, 16/1 Talon, Zabeel Tiger, 20/1 Khana Ras, Maximus Aurelius, 25/1 ConnorÂ´s Choice, Seconds Out, 33/1 Avril Valley, Ray Diamond, Recoil, Restless Swallow.
A maiden with a number of newcomers. Barliffy with a couple of 2nds to his name looks great place only material. We're delighted is an obvious each way candidate. I am interested in the placings of Always Certain and Celt just after the 3 main protagonists each way.
300 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Hampstead Heath, Tenjack King, 11/2 Stop On, 7/1 Black Jacari, 10/1 Tepee, 12/1 Addikt, 16/1 Downhiller, 20/1 Got Green, 25/1 Dancing Sword, 33/1 Captain Mainwaring, Graylyn Ruby, 50/1 Has To Be Abacus, Lancaster Lad, Orbital Orchid.

Another maiden, and as was seen yesterday, surprises do occur due to the profile of the race. A price gap of sorts between the main 2 protagonists at 5/2 and the 2nd fav at 11/2. Outsiders at 20/1 bar, and 5 horses in between who we can suggest may be competitive from a palce only perspective. One from the front and one from the back please Carole, I'll have Stop On and Addikt each way
410 CHESPTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Easterly Breeze, 11/2 Theta, 7/1 Meon Mix, Vivacita, 10/1 Berry Hill Lass, Hareem, Wroughton, 14/1 Apache Chant, 33/1 Icansingarainbow .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Little strength in depth. Money for any of the newcomers will be signficant but this looks best left to EASTERLY BREEZE, who has shaped well on turf and who will be well suited by the step up to this trip.[RY]

A clear market leader who has had 4 tries to lose the maiden tag, opeing up this race to good each way thievery Meon Mix and Apache Chant each way
550 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Drumming Party, 5/1 Talcen Gwyn, 11/2 Endless Summer, 7/1 Digital, 10/1 King Egbert, 12/1 One Way Ticket, Summer Recluse, 14/1 Hello Roberto, 16/1 Cerulean Rose, Decider, Maktavish, 20/1 Enjoy The Buzz, Whistler, 25/1 Ballybunion, Campeon .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The strong finisher ENDLESS SUMMER possesses a winning attitude and gets the vote after a string of decent runs, including here. The probable dangers include Talcen Gwyn and Drumming Party.[BDO]

5 furlong sprint handicap and anything could happen. One way ticket and Summer REcluse each way are both positioned outside of the top5
205 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/1 Siberian Tiger, 8/1 Doctor Robert, 10/1 Cobo Bay, Crystal Rock, Ghetto, Jack Dawkins, The Betchworth Kid, 14/1 Blue Sky Basin, Determind Stand, 16/1 Annaliesse, Bonjour Allure, Ellemujie, 20/1 Dalkey Girl, Fathsta, Stubbs Art, Talk Of Saafend, Welcome Return, 25/1 Ernie Owl,

I didn't back Cobo BAy when he last ran simply because it was too obvious - Cobo Bay is a bay in Guernsey!. I will go for him this time along with Blue Sky Basin each way in a very competitive race
220 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Honky Tonk Sally, 9/2 Night Premiere, 5/1 Divine Power, 7/1 Blue Eyed Miss, 20/1 Ma Al Salamah, Mythical Fosroc, 25/1 Badoura, Kalligal, 33/1 Ava Gee, The Dragon, 40/1 Athboy Auction, Evenstorm, 66/1 Our Kally.
I will chance Ma Al Slamah and Mythical Fosroc each way to take advantage of any slip ups in the first 4 in the market
415 TIPPERARY
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Majority, 2/1 Ghimaar, 7/2 Seader, 14/1 Exploration, Mister Bannon, 20/1 Fair Dues, Jumbo Rio, 25/1 Drunken Sailor, Mask Of Conspiracy.
Exploration and Mister Bannon each way - 3 obvious contenders and another maiden race
645 TIPPERARY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Equator, 4/1 Roundofapplause, 9/2 Better Than Jewels, 10/1 EimearÂ´s Beamer, Scolboakingofkings, 12/1 Cape Win, Last Warrior, Supreme Ruler, 14/1 DruidÂ´s Chair, 16/1 Dont Jinx Me Johny, 20/1 Baguenaud, Calestes, Moscow Night, Star Jasmine, Tap On Nellie, 25/1 River DÂ´Ocala, Where Art Thou, 33/1 Annephar, Cabb City, KatieÂ´s World.
Another maiden hurdle and another short price favourite - again I will opt for the 10/1 shots in Eimear's Beamer and Scolboakingsofkings each way.

PRICE GAPS
An ok performance yesterday with My Condor winning although he didn't meet the strict template prvided by the likes of United Nations et al, and Izuagi Falls won at 1/3.
410 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Easterly Breeze, 11/2 Theta, 7/1 Meon Mix, Vivacita, 10/1 Berry Hill Lass, Hareem, Wroughton, 14/1 Apache Chant, 33/1 Icansingarainbow .

A decent price gap here, and a maiden race which is not ideal. The market leader has had 4 runs and has finished 2nd in 2 of them.
Easterly Breeze

Fair form in four starts to date (latest Ripon run franked by Double Doors, who won handicap off 78 at Haydock yesterday) and the highest of those with an official rating; leaves the impression that step up to this trip will suit (backed up by pedigree) and looks the one to beat.
One thing to note is the morning price gap which shows a main market rival in Theta who is at 9/2 at present
220 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Honky Tonk Sally, 9/2 Night Premiere, 5/1 Divine Power, 7/1 Blue Eyed Miss, 20/1 Ma Al Salamah, Mythical Fosroc, 25/1 Badoura, Kalligal, 33/1 Ava Gee, The Dragon, 40/1 Athboy Auction, Evenstorm, 66/1 Our Kally .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The form principals are all dropping down from 6f. HONKY TONK SALLY faces her easiest assignment to date and should be equal to the task with Divine Power probably the one to give her most to do

A decent enough price gap but yet another maiden race.
Honky Tonk Sally

Related to winners at 1m/1m4f but not been lasting home over 6f, in above-average Newmarket maidens first two outings and Lowther latest (out of depth); obvious chance to get off the mark in this company and has the speed to make the most of good draw.
Not a rock solid proposition for me and,again, looking at the morning prices, Blue eyed miss is now 4/1 offering some rivalry to the market leader. Remember My Condor yesterday,, the price gap was vindicated, and even improved, in the early morning market
325 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Bygone Days, 4/1 Thousand Words, 5/1 Racer Forever, 7/1 Jack Sullivan, 11/1 Eisteddfod, 12/1 Assertive, 14/1 Vanderlin, 16/1 Ivory Lace, 20/1 Royal Power, 40/1 Tiana .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BYGONE DAYS (nap) looked back to something very close to his best when a close third in a Goodwood Group 3 last time and is the one to beat. Thousand Words has an uneven look to his form this season but is entitled to go very well if back to his peak and is readily preferred as the best alternative. [MCu]

We can take a chance here I think ,ready preference ( and less risk , meaning less return) on the place
755 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Choisette, 6/1 Paddy Jack, Richardthesecond, 8/1 Bahamarama, 10/1 Speedy Senorita, 12/1 OrpenÂ´s Art, 14/1 Diademas, 20/1 Baytown Blaze, Maracana Boy, 25/1 Frizzini, Myriola, Only In Jest, Rightcar Ellie .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A couple of interesting runners but the one to appeal most is CHOISETTE (nap), who is ideally drawn for one that races up with the pace and whose second to a previous winner (pair clear) on her AW debut last week gives her a leading form chance off tonight's 2lb lower mark. [RY]

Hardened into 11/10 as I write with next best at 6/1, a 13 runner nursery is perhaps not the ideal betting medium, which is why, I suppose, we can get a relatively good price odds against

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2007-Sep-12

12/9Wednesday, 12 September 2007

Wednesday, 12 September 2007

12/9

I had Gloucester and Littlejim bob in the 330 yesterday and stopped when I hit a winner . Poor results overall yesterday with not many placed.
On the price gap front Ibn Khaldun won as she liked under Frankie at unappetising odds of 1/2 - 4/9 at the off, but a win's a win. Lor d of Dreams was unplaced - and Wassily KAndisnsky just couldn't get her head in front.
Too many price gappers from maiden races and I really don't like to get involved in these as the strike rate for favs is poor in these race types - there are too many imponderables as well.
On to today
EACH WAY
240 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/1 Cristal Clear, 7/1 Royal Confidence, 15/2 Crystany, 9/1 Anosti, 10/1 Geestring, 12/1 Close To Paradise, Hawk Eyed Lady, SerenaÂ´s Storm, SophieÂ´s Girl, 14/1 Dresden Doll, La Chicaluna, 16/1 Kay Es Jay, Mey Blossom, 20/1 Broken Applause, 25/1 Bohobe, Jennifers Joy, Miss Firefly, 33/1 Miss Bootylishes, 40/1 Leading Edge, 200/1 Amazing Spirit,

Plenty in with chances so says Spotlight - I will chance Dresden Doll and Geestring each way
420 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Drayton, 5/1 Green Manalishi, 11/2 Hogmaneigh, Peace Offering, 13/2 Galeota, 7/1 Conquest, 8/1 Morinqua, PivotalÂ´s Princess, 14/1 Perfect Paula.
What a tight betting heat this promises to be. i will swerve those at the head of the market and go with Morinqua - a horse I have followed and a real speed merchant
200 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Ballochroy, 100/30 Love Valentine, 5/1 Boy Blue, 6/1 Maryqueenofscots, 8/1 Incarnation, 10/1 Seta Pura, Trip The Light, 14/1 Potemkin, 33/1 Blindspin, Ugly Betty, 66/1 Halton Castle .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not a great deal to go on and the betting should provide some clues, particularly Mark Johnston's newcomer Love Valentine, but BALLOCHROY, with experience behind him and probably more to come, may be the better proposition on this occasion.[FC]

Not much to go in so some speculation can be allowed - Seta Pura and Trip the light look positioned to be competitive for a place in another very tricky maiden where the price market is key
230 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Bonny Rose, 15/8 Copperwood, 9/2 All The Aces, 10/1 Green Earrings, 14/1 Oxbridge, 25/1 Better In Heaven, Feeling Fresh, 33/1 Brasingaman Hifive, Love Cat, Pentandra, 50/1 Warsaw Waltz .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BONNY ROSE (nap) did really well to divide a couple of fair sorts at Redcar last month and she has plenty going for her over a trip which should suit. Copperwood looks next best of those with experience, though All The Aces is an interesting newcomer.[EMW]

With the first 3 fill the first 3 places in the final placings? I'm betting against it with Green Earrings and Oxbridge each way - both lodged between the fancies and the outsiders. this is another maiden race so is open to surprises
335 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Chatham Islands, 7/2 Craggy Cat, 11/2 Perfect Flight, 8/1 Ridge Wood Dani, 10/1 Irving Place, Russian Reel, 14/1 Fyodorovich, Stage Acclaim, 16/1 Brixworth Scribe, Narmeen, Rievaulx Valentino, 25/1 The Real Guru, 100/1 Falcon Speed,
A big field nursery and a chance on some outsiders in Irving Place and Russian Reel each way, again positioned near the head of the market
650 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Iguazu Falls, 8/1 CharmelÂ´s Lad, 10/1 Bronze Cannon, 12/1 Oarsman, 14/1 Landikhaya, 16/1 Prime Aspiration, Southern Mistral, 20/1 Haydens Mark, 25/1 Earlsmedic, Special Branch Ami, 33/1 Distant Diamond, 40/1 Autumn Blades, 100/1 Pure Scandal .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: IGUAZU FALLS holds plenty of fancy entries in the next few weeks and connections will be disappointed if he cannot get off the mark. Bronze Cannon and Charmel's Lad look the main dangers, but they will probably have to settle for minor honours if the selection is at his best.

A 1/3 shot will make it into the PRICE GAPS but is not a backable price. Only one run out representing Godolphin, this one should win, but worth including Bronze Cannon and Landikyaya incase it doesnt run as a 1/3 shot should
215 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Levitski, 100/30 The Sliotar, 9/2 Prince De Bersy, 6/1 Willie Pep, 10/1 Gallant Hero, Gone Tomorrow, 14/1 The Saltire Tiger, Thehonourablelady, 16/1 Pencil House, Whistle Blowing, 25/1 Kilrossanty, 33/1 Viennchee Run, 100/1 Evelith Princess, Oat Hill, The Gerry Man, 200/1 My Rocket.
Gallant HEro and Gone tomorrow each way
325 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Last Pioneer, 6/1 ItÂ´s News To Me, 7/1 Chandlers Cross, 15/2 Taras Knight, 10/1 Chunky Lad, Elaala, Smart Minister, 14/1 Are You There, Backlash, Princess Aimee, 20/1 Ceredig, 33/1 Bold Pursuit, Bouzouki, High Seasons, New Wish, 50/1 Mind That Fox, Night Reveller, Von Wessex .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It remains to be seen what LAST PIONEER would find in a scrap but it might not come to that in this company if he's firing on all cylinders after a break.[AWJ]

A selling hurdle so I'll be chancing Chandlers Cross near the head of the market and Are you there just before the outsiders
PRICE GAPS
530 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Ravarino, 11/2 Parisian Dream, 13/2 Hassaad, Lemonette, 7/1 Soft Morning, 14/1 Buccellati, Nawamees, Resonate, 20/1 Collateral Damage, Lucayan Dancer, 25/1 Along The Nile, Blue Spinnaker, 33/1 Fusili, Lisathedaddy .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The progressive 3yos could be the ones to concentrate on and RAVARINO (nap), who is getting her act together of late, makes the most appeal. She is the type to progress again for current connections and is a proven performer over this distance. [RY]

POSITIVES - ok price gap and napped by spotlight - progressive -
NEGATIVES - not a palmetto or Ibn Khundun kind of price gap
No mention of " will be very hard to beat" etc by Spotlight

650 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Iguazu Falls, 8/1 CharmelÂ´s Lad, 10/1 Bronze Cannon, 12/1 Oarsman, 14/1 Landikhaya, 16/1 Prime Aspiration, Southern Mistral, 20/1 Haydens Mark, 25/1 Earlsmedic, Special Branch Ami, 33/1 Distant Diamond, 40/1 Autumn Blades, 100/1 Pure Scandal .

Likely to go off 1/3 -no thanks
POSITIVES - very prominent price gap - ideal really - expected to win by connections
NEGATIVES - valueless price for a one time out maiden ,favourite purely on reputation.Plenty of improvers and a big field maiden. Also unbackable price for the race type
250 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 My Condor, 6/1 Star Galaxy, 13/2 Yankee Holiday, 8/1 Jefertiti, 10/1 Meltonian, Nesnaas, Royal Master, Schinken Otto, 12/1 Gipsy Cricketer, 14/1 Dream On Maggie, 25/1 Pure Brief, 33/1 Macgyver .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The presence of other potential front-runners is a worry but MY CONDOR looked a very different horse after his wind operation at Cartmel and could still be ahead of the handicapper, despite a 13lb rise.[AWJ]

POSITIVES - ahead of the handicapper, slight price gap - in the early market the price gap is better at 7/4 - - - 5/1
NEGATIVES - not strictly a price gap qualifier, no "hard to beat etc" , form of 321 -can he keep it up in handicap company.
CONCLUSION - one to note for me, and probably a good place only option

The real price gappers have been conspicuous by their absence today - Ibn Khundun fit in with the kind of profile I want to see, but we then pay the price by it going off at 4/9! So look through previous blogs and note, Palmetto Point, United Nations, Dylan Thomas, Ibn Khundun if you really want to see what I'd like to see from a price gap candidate

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2007-Sep-10

11/9

Blandys wood (16/1) and Just jimmy (14/1) unplaced, Punching(14/1) 4th and Damhsoir (16/1) unplaced, Little Tot0 11/1 and Fort Hull 50/1 unpalced, BEcuille 3rd at 20/1 in a 7 runner race alas and Citronelle 4th at 20/1, Camouflage 20/1 and Beliar 6/1 unpalced - again the short priced maiden hurdle favourite was unplaced but I chose the wrong outsiders, - Mean MAchine won who was next to Camouflage in the betting forecast - luck of the draw! Orchestration 3rd at 12/1 and Island Music a non runner.
Ataabas PRide won at 1/2 and Angel Dreamer came 2nd. I did hint at the likelihood of a competitive affair with this one.
Bad day with the big prices but it takes one 20/1 winenr to knock these unplaced horses for 6. It'll come sometime. Typical tricky Monday yesterday
EACH WAY
230 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Eager Diva, 4/1 Synergistic, 9/2 Prince Kalamoun, 5/1 City Hustler, 11/2 Flying Time, 8/1 Reel Buddy Blaze, 10/1 Bobal Girl, 25/1 Montefiore, 50/1 Blazing Mask, 66/1 Pret A Tout.
I will keep concentrating on these maidens The betting forecast indicates a tight and competitive affair at 7/2, 4/1, 9/2, 5/1, 11/2 - very tight indeed. I will go for Bobal Girl just before the perceived outsiders
330 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Suits Me, 4/1 Ahlawy, 6/1 Smugglers Bay, 13/2 Motafarred, 10/1 Gloucester, Our Teddy, 12/1 NeilÂ´s Legacy, 14/1 RegentÂ´s Secret, 16/1 El Dececy, 20/1 Dragon Slayer, 25/1 Little Jimbob, Riley Boys.
I'll go for the 2 10/1 shots here in the hope they will be competitive for the place Gloucester and Our Teddy
400 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Making Music, 5/1 Kings College Boy, 11/2 Lake Chini, 6/1 Hotham, 13/2 Raccoon, 7/1 Never Without Me, 10/1 Paddywack, 12/1 Henry Hall, 14/1 Cornus, Miacarla, 25/1 Steel City Boy, 100/1 Golband, Howards Princess.
A 5 furlong sprint, and with question marks regarding the principles with ground and draw again I can speculate on Cornus and Miacarla just before the perceived outsiders
415 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Wassily Kandinsky, 5/1 Final Flashback, 6/1 Mutqan, 8/1 King Of Rome, 10/1 Western Winner, 14/1 Dealmaker Frank, Kaprun, Mon Champion, 20/1 Quetzalcoatl, 25/1 Bolt Up, 33/1 Bombolini, 50/1 Buyasyoufly.
An O'BRien /Fallon hot pot ought to ensure inflated prices amongst rivals, so Western Winner and King of Rome for me
140 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Insaaf, 6/1 Magical Fantasy, Red Icon, 13/2 Exodia, 8/1 Blue Rhapsody, Riverscape, 10/1 Lavender And Lace, 14/1 Vallani, 20/1 Nouvelle Nova, SueÂ´s Hawk, 100/1 Latimer House, Mia Haria.
A race of imponderables with a short priced fav whos never raced before - Lavender and LAce and Vallani each way
210 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Thought Is Free, 5/1 Romany Princess, 7/1 Private Code, 8/1 Qasayed, 10/1 Bookish, 14/1 Capefly, 25/1 Siryena, 33/1 Lekita, 100/1 Fernlawn Hope, Sweet Dane, Teadancer.
Maiden fillies - Qauayed and Capefly each way

PRICE GAPS
415 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Wassily Kandinsky, 5/1 Final Flashback, 6/1 Mutqan, 8/1 King Of Rome, 10/1 Western Winner, 14/1 Dealmaker Frank, Kaprun, Mon Champion, 20/1 Quetzalcoatl, 25/1 Bolt Up, 33/1 Bombolini, 50/1 Buyasyoufly.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WASSILY KANDINSKY will not need to improve from his run at the festival here over five weeks ago in order to open his account. The son of Montjeu took a while to warm to his task before running on strongly in the closing stages to finish a neck second to the warm favourite Unwritten Rule, in the process drawing 5l clear of his shorter-priced stablemate Budapest. In the meantime, the form of his debut fourth behind Maryellen's Spirit has been boosted by runner-up Curtain Call in securing a fine Group 2 second behind New Approach.\n A low draw is not ideal for Wassily Kandisky
An encouraging write up to match the price gap. NEgative is the fact it is a maiden. The form looks good although it must be said the horse has had only 2 runs Poor draw but how significant will the draw be over 1mile?
I will back the horse if the price gap is replicated in the live market and the price is 4/6 or thereabouts
450 LEICESTER

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Ibn Khaldun, 8/1 Abeyance, Forsyte Saga, Morestead, 10/1 KingÂ´s Wonder, Novas, 14/1 Looter, St Jean Cap Ferrat, 33/1 Royal Manor, 50/1 Atlantic Diamond, 100/1 Amwell House .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not much to go on in the way of form and the betting should be informative with big stables represented by newcomers. Morestead will be a factor if fulfilling debut promise and St Jean Cap Ferrat is a likely improver, but IBN KHALDUN is the only one with up-coming Group race engagements and likely to be hard to beat with a promising run behind him.[FC]

A very significant price gap and those magic words "likely to be hard to beat" BUT there are 5 debutants and 4 one time out open to improvement types.
Again I will take a chance here on the market leader who I hope will be around evens due to the profile of the race ( ie a few unknown quantities and a price based on reputation and future engagements)
140 LINGFIELD
ETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Insaaf, 6/1 Magical Fantasy, Red Icon, 13/2 Exodia, 8/1 Blue Rhapsody, Riverscape, 10/1 Lavender And Lace, 14/1 Vallani, 20/1 Nouvelle Nova, SueÂ´s Hawk, 100/1 Latimer House, Mia Haria .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Tricky to call with no real solid form to work with. Most of these are likely to excel over longer distances next year but INSAAF is bred to be sharper than most and, with her stable in good form right now, she may be up to the task.[AWJ]

Yes a price gap, but please pay attention to the race profile
210 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Thought Is Free, 5/1 Romany Princess, 7/1 Private Code, 8/1 Qasayed, 10/1 Bookish, 14/1 Capefly, 25/1 Siryena, 33/1 Lekita, 100/1 Fernlawn Hope, Sweet Dane, Teadancer .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THOUGHT IS FREE wasn't beaten at all far in the Lowther despite finishing only eighth and she should be off the mark here. Private Code may be the one to cause her most problems.[AWJ]

Yet another short price in a maiden race but the p[rice gap is near what I would like although the kind of price gap found with Ibn Khaldun is the IDEAL

240 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Lord Of Dreams, 5/1 Birkside, 6/1 Give Evidence, 10/1 Hamilton House, Miss Porcia, Mr Napoleon, 12/1 Sekula Pata, 14/1 Fairly Honest, 16/1 Veba, 20/1 Fulvio, Ron In Ernest, 25/1 Mamichor, 33/1 Kastan, Rose Muwasim .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LORD OF DREAMS has been struggling to get his head back in front but he's at least running well at present and this drop in class could be just the ticket.[AWJ]

A drop in class and a decent price although a price gap , again, not in the same league as Ibn Khaldun
- No hard to beat in the verdict though

A tricky day for the price gaps today with a number of short priced horses based on a single run or potential future engagements in races where there are debutants and others open to improvement. If I had to pick one for the day to win only, then for me Ibn Khaldun is the one - as already mentioned I am hopefully of an SP around the evens mark which is indicative of the fact that there are some potential unknown quantities
.
If I'm looking for a better price, then Lord of Dreams is the one I think, provided the price gap remains in the live market environment and Lord of Dreams is positively backed for this drop oin class

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2007-Sep-10

11/9

Yes a price gap, but please pay attention to the race profile
210 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Thought Is Free, 5/1 Romany Princess, 7/1 Private Code, 8/1 Qasayed, 10/1 Bookish, 14/1 Capefly, 25/1 Siryena, 33/1 Lekita, 100/1 Fernlawn Hope, Sweet Dane, Teadancer .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LORD OF DREAMS has been struggling to get his head back in front but he's at least running well at present and this drop in class could be just the ticket.[AWJ]

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2007-Sep-10

10/9

Alexander Mobile 4th at 20/1 and Hunterstown Queen 5th at 25/1 - a 3rd place would have paid out nicely! Another 4th in Commanchero at 14/1 with Classic Croco unplaced at 8/1. Correy 3rd at 16/1 good place payout on BEtfair , Barneys dancer unpalced at 33/1 , Mistified 4th (again)at 11/1, and Leonardos friend unplaced at 14/1, Eldorado 2nd at 7/1 and hathaal a non runner.Esteem a great 2nd place at 25/1 and Blejan Ehyre unpalced at 25/1, MAccabeus unplaced at 20/1

With the price gaps, you will notice no " hard to beat" or "difficult to oppose" in the Spotlight commentary. Atlantic Coast, as I suspected for a multiple handicap winner, did not win again. Bothar Nar placed , and Granite Man was speculative as he didn't fit with the profile of a Palmetto Point or, most recently, Dylan Thomas - chance taken that he could reproduce his previous run before he fell when well in contention. The need here is to go for the rock solids

I was very disappointed with the number of 4th places yesterday for the each way bets - 20/1, 14/1 and 11/1 all missed out on a nice BEtfair place only payout and we could have done with Esteem winning at 25/1 ( huge on Betfair) to negate for these unplaced horses.
As you can see , a lot of big prices mean that with this type of betting it's ideal to get out on the day when you've hit an early winner or big priced place - this happened with Esteem in the 230 Stratford - I've said it before - when you bag a biggie early doors take the money and run

EACH WAY
Typically poor Monday
240 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Palm Court, 7/2 Kristal Glory, 8/1 Kyrie Eleison, 14/1 Feasible, Hyper Viper, Midnite Blews, 16/1 Blandys Wood, Just Jimmy, 20/1 Agon Eyes, Charlie Be, Mister Cafnex, Ostinata, Yes Meg, 25/1 Alfredtheordinary, 33/1 Dhaka Dazzle, Holy Storm.

A big field nursery - Kyrie Eleison looks the obvious each way candidate but often going for the obvious in a race of this nature negates the chance to get a good priced horse. I will chance Blandys wood and Just jimmy each way - 16/1 chances
340 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Star Strider, 11/4 O Fourlunda, 100/30 Winning Show, 7/2 Oystermouth, 16/1 Punching, 20/1 Damhsoir, 25/1 Stargazy, 33/1 One White Sock, 40/1 Pathway To Glory, 50/1 Silver Flame, The Carpet Man, 66/1 Our Archie, Ring Of Charm.

WIll this race revolve around the first 4 in the bettng as the forecast suggests? I'll chance at least one or 2 of them not giving their running and hope Punching and Damhsoir can be competitive for the minor places
220 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Mon Plaisir, 7/2 Nezami, 5/1 Billion Dollar Kid, 6/1 Pediment, 10/1 Little Toto, 14/1 Fort Hull, 25/1 Altercation, Desert Thistle, Langham House, Tobago Bay, 33/1 Peer Pressure, 40/1 ItÂ´s My Day, 66/1 Fraamington.
Again there are obvious candidates but I would prefer the less obvious in this sprint maiden in Little Tot and Fort Hull each way - there is a giant leap to the 25/1 and bigger horses
345 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Angel Dreamer, 3/1 Reyaada, 9/2 Heaven Bound, 12/1 Becuille, 14/1 Citronelle, 16/1 Fanacanta, 20/1 Royle Penny.
Maiden fillies and a chance on BEcuille and Citronelle each way - only 7 runners and 2 the place but I have seen shocks in these small field maidens before
715 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Nexthingwas, 7/2 Balance Of Power, 8/1 Beliar, Fast Fred, Our Little Cub, 10/1 Natural Force, 14/1 Camouflage, Mean Machine, 20/1 Hawksbury Heights, Lady De Burgo, 25/1 Turloughmore Lad.
Another maiden hurdle and an opportunity to take on the shortie - as we've seen before they don;t all win in races like this and it was a maiden race in which I got my last 20/1 winner. I will chance Camouflage and Beliar each way
230 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Atabaas Pride, 3/1 Arcetri, 8/1 On Instinct, 12/1 Island Music, Orchestrion, 14/1 Andaman Sunset, 20/1 Bond Scissorsister, 33/1 Benitez Bond, Lamistrelle, 50/1 Spooky, 66/1 Handsinthemist, 100/1 Kyzer Chief, Latin Dancer.
Two horses obviously in contention for the win here, leaving a number with a palce only chance and also an opportunity for us incase Atabaas PRide or Arcetri run below par. I will chance Island Music and Orchestration eah way
PRICE GAPS
No proper candidates since Dylan Thomas and I will try to highlight any flaws that may hint at laying instead of backing, or at least backing for a place only rather than the win
There are no candidates today - a mention for Ataabas PRide who looks to have one to beat and may be a decent place only bet in the 230 Newcastle, and the Dermot Weld runner Angel Dreamer is in with a shout in the 345 Galway but I am put off by the fact it is a small field maiden for fillies and the horse has 2 near market rivals - 5/6 - - 11/4 - - 7/2

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2007-Sep-9

9/9

Winged Cupid 7th at 11/4, Naomh Geileis and MAster Chef unplaced at 9/1, Mustajed 4th at 9/2, Choosy Girl and Glowing unplaced at 20/1, Echelonwins at 9/4, Muzmin and Wadi Raider unplaced at 12/1,
Ghana won well for the footy and I got out of the unders trade on England after 20 minutes.
Sakhees Secret unplaced, Dylan Thomas won at a reasonable 8/15, Option Money went off 2/1 joint fav so therefore the price gap wasn't there

EACH WAYS
Poor day as was expected for a Saturday
305 CORK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Acorn Hollow, 5/2 Mrs Gillow, 8/1 Siul Ar Aghaidh, 10/1 Good Thyne Diva, Zamona, 12/1 Alexander Mobile, 14/1 Hunterstown Queen, Our Local Scan, 16/1 Double Kudos, My Lucky Break, 20/1 Absolute Millenium, Curragh Boy, Gondolin, Iwalkedtheline, Ma Chara, Neskey Lady, Please God Win, 25/1 Hallys Goal, Mr Maurice, SallyÂ´s Yarn, Vincababy.
Another short price in a maiden hurdle and worth taking on. Now realistically these short prices won't all lose . I'm going to chance Alexander Mobile and Hunterstown Queen each way
340 CORK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Dancing Hero, 9/2 Gurrun, 5/1 Brize Norton, 7/1 Stepanora, 8/1 Orvietan, Rosoff, 10/1 Commonchero, Drumavish Lass, Nesserian, 12/1 Classic Croco, 14/1 Arresting, 20/1 Raikkonen.
7/2 the field - worth chancing some big prices in Commanchero and Classic Croco each way
210 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Tilly Shilling, 3/1 Tension Point, 11/2 Miss Saafend Plaza, 6/1 Victory Mile, 12/1 Correy, 20/1 BarneyÂ´s Dancer, 25/1 Cobra King, Laragh Hill, Rainbow Flame, 33/1 Royal Tender, 40/1 Camp Counsellor, 50/1 Port Macquairie, 66/1 A Peaceful Man, Stand In Black.
An interesting betting forecast I'll chance Correy and BArney's Dancer each way in this juvenile novice's hurdle
420 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Terramarique, 5/1 HeÂ´s The Gaffer, 6/1 Red Echo, 8/1 Matt The Thrasher, 10/1 LeonardoÂ´s Friend, 12/1 City Breeze, Cool Alice, 14/1 Mistified, 16/1 Fisby, 20/1 Knightsbridge Hill, Simonovski, 25/1 Find The King, Sonoma, The Iron Giant, 33/1 Haydon Lady.
LEonardos Friend and Mistified each way
450 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Salford City, 4/1 Particle, 9/2 Cape Greko, 20/1 Eldorado, Hathaal, 25/1 Bungar Belle, 50/1 Lillie Lou, Ophistrolie, 66/1 Beths Choice, Fox Â´NÂ´ Goose, Norman Norman, 100/1 Lake Suprima.
from an each way perspective Eldorado and HAthaal incase the front 3 don't give their running
230 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Instructor, 7/4 Hopeful Purchase, 5/2 Truckers Delight, 20/1 Esteem, 25/1 Blejan Eyhre, 33/1 Artic Bliss, 40/1 Diktatorship, 50/1 Laconicos, Madam Blaze, Star Berry, 100/1 Cloonavery, Gumlayloy.
Will the front 3 fill the first 3 places in the race? I'll chance not - Esteem and Blejan Eyhre each way
250 YORK
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Tugalu, 5/2 Love Of Dubai, 11/2 Excitement, Upstanding, 14/1 Maccabeus, 16/1 Bahamian Ballad, 25/1 Lujiana, Miss Olivia, 33/1 Astrol, 50/1 Miss Deeds, 66/1 Captain Turbot.
Worth chancing Maccabeus each way
PRICE GAPS
250 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Bothar Na, 5/1 Noble Prize, 6/1 Major Finnegan, 7/1 Insan Flyer, 8/1 Spaxdotcom, 12/1 Hold On Man, Mr Bones, 25/1 Golden Sedge .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BOTHAR NA (nap) is effective on most types of ground and can warm up for a possible tilt at the Kerry National by taking this prize. The eight-year-old has failed to win since beating Pearly Jack in the big Listowel handicap chase last year, but has run several good races over hurdles in recent months. He was trying to concede 19lb to the 2l winner when second to Head Waiter in a 2m6f handicap at Killarney in July, and did not seem to be quite at his best on heavy ground at Tralee last time.\n

Decent enough price gap
405 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Granite Man, 9/2 Reasonably Sure, 6/1 Mycenean Prince, 7/1 Kilrogan, 8/1 Dancewiththedevil, 12/1 Lost In The Snow, 14/1 Maree Hall, 16/1 Slick, Try, 25/1 Cnocan Aoibhinn, Lagan Legend, 33/1 Western Dasher, 50/1 Rinty, 100/1 Layasar .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GRANITE MAN was still in with a chance when falling at Fontwell most recently and can gain some compensation in a heat with more quantity than quality. Mycenean Prince could prove the main threat.[SR

Not a significant price gap but a hint that he may be a threat
500 YORK
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Atlantic Coast, 6/1 Industrial Star, 8/1 Great As Gold, Indonesia, 9/1 Abstract Folly, 12/1 Kyoto Summit, Mister Arjay, Noble Minstrel, 14/1 Missoula, 16/1 Mind How You Go .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ATLANTIC COAST (nap), less exposed than his rivals, has been making hay in lesser handicaps and he looks well up to completing a hat-trick off his light weight. b\Industrial Star, with Jamie Spencer up, may be the main threat.[DH]

A concern here with another multiple winner in a handicap

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2007-Sep-9

9/9

A concern here with another multiple winner in a handicap

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2007-Sep-8

8/9

Saturday, 8 September 2007

8/9

Cool the heels unplaced at 40/1 and Dubai LAnd unplaced at 18/1,
I chose the wrong horse in the 200 Haydock

200 HAYDOCK
ETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Silvanus, 15/8 Hammadi, 7/1 Not My Choice, 12/1 No Page, 14/1 Chivola, Inxile, 16/1 Writingonthewall, 33/1 Hamish McGonagall, Kiowa Princess, Senorita Parkes, 66/1 Silken Spell, 100/1 Charlie Oxo.

The winner was Inxile to the left of Writing on the Wall and Hamish MCGonnagall also placed! I select the right races to take favs on, wish I could chose the horses each way better.

Taweeza 3rd at 9/1, Classic Descent 4th at 13/2
Tenjack King a non runner, Hit the roof unplaced at 16/1,
Lady Sorcerer 3rd at 20/1, Albany BEck unplaced at 33/1, My Aunt Fanny 3rd at 20/1, Silver Rime a non runner and Mashrai unplaced at 33/1,

The price gaps were generally poor yesterday -each had a question mark - Royal Indulgence was a multiple handicap winner and the price gap was only 5/2 - - - 11/2.
Right Combination was a non runner, The Crazy Parson was 3rd at 6/4, and Slam was 2nd at 1/2 - another maiden fav goes down!

So a poor return with only a couple of big priced placed horses which would have paid out a decent amount. for the price gaps, I will try to explain my strongest bets and those less confident ones.

Again, it's a busy Saturday - bookie benefit day

EACH WAY

235 HAYDOCK

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Olympian Odyssey, 7/2 Caldra, 4/1 Winged Cupid, 12/1 Smart Enough, 14/1 Appalachian Trail, Harvest Queen, Metropolitan Man, 20/1 Azarole, 25/1 Tell.
A listed race and the betting market is usually good for these races so I'll chance Winged Cupid each way.

220 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Reel Gift, 3/1 Sporting Art, 9/2 FredÂ´s Lad, 10/1 Naomh Geileis, 12/1 Master Chef, 14/1 Lady Aquitaine, Red Alert Day, 20/1 Lytton, 25/1 Ten Meropa, 33/1 Cee Bargara, Philario, 40/1 Spanish Bounty.
Naomh Geileis and MAster Chef each way

530 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Pivotal Answer, 5/1 Mustajed, 10/1 Crossbow Creek, Desert DÂ´Argent, Kingscape, Krugerrand, Ocean Avenue, Polish Power, 12/1 Prince Nureyev, 16/1 Cavallini, Fear To Tread, 20/1 Daring Affair, Kervriou, 33/1 Desert Leader, Magic Mountain .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Pivotal Answer could well have more to come, while any market confidence behind Desert D'Argent would look significant after her absence. MUSTAJED still looks well treated on the AW though and he can follow up his recent C&D success.[PSm]

An interesting market with Mustajed in isolation really inbetween the market leader and a whole host of 10/1 horses - he must be a decent each way bet.

140 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Maidin Moch, 5/1 Chinese White, Kitty Matcham, 11/2 Yali, 6/1 Carbonia, 7/1 Fikrah, 10/1 Crystal Swan, 12/1 Edmondstown Lass, 14/1 Countess Zoe, 16/1 Choosey Girl, Glowing, 20/1 Bonnie Bluebell, Jebel Musa, Little Miss Diva, Mystical Lady, Royal Duty, 25/1 Valentine Hill.
A maiden race full of debutants and this betting forecast is nothing more than a stab in the dark - a fine opportunity for a big price in Choosey Girl and Glowing just before the outsiders - of course the live market will reveal all

210 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Red Evie, 9/4 Arch Swing, 4/1 Echelon, 10/1 Evening Time, 14/1 Sweet Lilly, 16/1 Barshiba, 20/1 Modeeroch, 25/1 Eastern Appeal, SheÂ´s Our Mark.
Echelon each way looks the obvious candidate
230 THIRSK
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Dr Faustus, 7/4 Meer Kat, 10/1 Muzmin, 12/1 Funny Me, 16/1 Wadi Raider, 20/1 Boy Blue, 25/1 Desert Lark, Harlequinn Danseur, Lanterns Of Gold, 33/1 Terracos Do Pinhal, Whaston .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dr Faustus caught a tartar in Spacious when turned over at odds-on at Leicester last time but, although the step up to this trip will suit, he's hung on both starts and is unproven on quick ground. He is taken on with MEER KAT, who showed improvement over this trip on fast surface behind a better-fancied stable-companion last time.[RY]

Question marks about one of the main contenders so a chance on Muzmin and Wadi Raider each way

FOOTY
One good bet for me looks to be Ghana to beat Morocco as long as the ghanaians have a full squad and play their first team.
I'll be laying England at 1/3 for the early part of the match mindful of the time it took to score against Andorra THis will be a trading bet of course - an alternative could be the under 2.5 goal trade for the early part of the first half to get out after a decent enough price drop

PRICE GAP
310 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: Evs SakheeÂ´s Secret, 7/1 Marchand DÂ´Or, 8/1 Asset, 9/1 Hellvelyn, 10/1 BalthazaarÂ´s Gift, Red Clubs, 12/1 Per Incanto, 20/1 Al Qasi, Amadeus Wolf, 33/1 Mutawaajid, 40/1 Wi Dud, 50/1 Sierra Vista, 66/1 Somnus, 100/1 Advanced, Fayr Jag, Scarlet Runner .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Difficult to oppose SAKHEE'S SECRET (nap) who looked the real deal when winning the July Cup and it is hard to see why the likes of Red Clubs, Marchand d'Or or Asset should turn the tables. A more interesting rival is Hellvelyn who ran a blinder to be beaten only about 4l there considering he had been off for 287 days and has since built on that when winning a Listed event at Beverley.[AC]

Sakhees Secret has a great price gap here. SLight concern is this is a relatively big field of 16 top class sprinters.
I would still bet Sakhees Secret if the price gap looks similar in the live market

350 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Dylan Thomas, 5/1 Red Rocks, 13/2 Finsceal Beo, 7/1 Duke Of Marmalade, 10/1 Maraahel, 66/1 Red Rock Canyon .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dylan Thomas is going to be an exceptionally tough nut to crack, but at the prices it is possibly worth taking a chance that FINSCEAL BEO can recover her early-season brilliance. Her trainer's record with top-class fillies speaks for itself.

PRobably won't go off at 4/6, but a decent enough price gap here. The opposition are no mugs but I would chance a win bet if the price was 4/6 or thereabouts

520 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Option Money, 4/1 Alto Stratus, 9/2 The Hairy Mutt, 8/1 Darth Vader, 10/1 Delays Expected, 14/1 Shade Bonny, 20/1 Exit Route, 33/1 Handy Cross, Wychwoods Legend, 100/1 Miracle Bill, SawyerÂ´s Gold, White Tie, Wichita Brave .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OPTION MONEY looks the safest bet, though watch out for any market confidence behind Alto Stratus as her trainer Alan Swinbank should know where he stands with the selection, having saddled the runner-up to him at Market Rasen.[AWJ]

Option Money is not too confident a selection being a fav in a bumper - probably place only bet dependent on whether the live market prices reflect the above betting forecast

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2007-Sep-7

7/9

Friday, 7 September 2007

7 SEPTEMBER

Now settling in Killarney with v dodgy broadband wireless.
When I left you I left you with a juicy 20/1 winner - huge prices on Betfair which puts paid to the unplaced horses. Yes, I opposed the 2/7 shot in a maiden hurdle if memory serves and came up trumps.
EACH WAY BETS
On to today
210 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Trenchtown, 9/4 Loyal Knight, 8/1 Bahamian Blue, 10/1 Dubai Land, 12/1 WhatÂ´s For Tea, 16/1 Bozeman Trail, 20/1 Cool The Heels, 33/1 Zarees, 50/1 Balais Folly, Friction, Lenouska, Les Allues, No To Trident, 66/1 Paul The Carpet, Virtual Paddy.

A big field maiden race with 2 horses likely to fight out the finish if prices are to be believed. This opens us up to some each way thievery incase one of the 2 market leaders don't give their running OR one of the bigger prices improves for their last runs. We can ignore the 33/1's and overs leaving us 5 horses to chose from for each way purposes. I'll chance Dubai Land and Cool the HEels more in hope than expectation.

200 HAYDOCK
ETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Silvanus, 15/8 Hammadi, 7/1 Not My Choice, 12/1 No Page, 14/1 Chivola, Inxile, 16/1 Writingonthewall, 33/1 Hamish McGonagall, Kiowa Princess, Senorita Parkes, 66/1 Silken Spell, 100/1 Charlie Oxo.

Another race with a similar profile - this time 4 horses priced to be competitive from a placed perspective - Not my choice and Writingonthewall each way

235 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Striking Spirit, 7/2 Call For Liberty, 4/1 Dazzling Colours, 9/2 Beacon Lodge, 8/1 Classic Descent, 10/1 Tawzeea, 33/1 Babilu, 66/1 John Potts, Viscaya, 100/1 Kalanda Kurl,

Worth speculating on Classic Descent and Tawzeea each way , priced just before the outsiders
650 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Ordinance, 3/1 Aboriginie, 5/1 Tenjack King, 10/1 Hit The Roof, 14/1 St MichaelÂ´s Mount, 16/1 Averoo, Quam Celerrime, Slip, 20/1 Formation, Wabbraan, 25/1 Nikolaievich, 33/1 Cocktail Shaker, 50/1 Fongster.

Yet another maiden - Tenjack King is the obvious candidate but I'll chance Hit the Roof each way incase one of the front 3 should falter
720 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Ceka Dancer, 5/2 Dream Day, 10/1 Danvers, Street Diva, 12/1 Faraami, Tense, 14/1 Lady Sorcerer, 20/1 Albany Becky, 33/1 Racey Rachel, 50/1 Regal Veil, 100/1 Jazz Romance,

Yet another maiden, but the betting forecast looks good for each way thievery - a lot of debutants here so a couple of big priced throw away bets in Lady Sorcerer and Albany Beck each way at big big prices

750 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Annie Skates, 3/1 Island Vista, Stones Of Venice, 20/1 My Aunt Fanny, 25/1 Mollyatti, Rowan Dancer, 33/1 Bushy Dell, 50/1 Amouretta.
Highly speculative on My Aunt Fanny each way in yet another maiden chock full of unknown quantities. I am betting against the top 3 in the betting forecast finishing 1-2-3 in the race
150 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Slam, 8/1 Alfathaa, 10/1 Dusk, Mushtaaq, Opera Prince, 12/1 Love Galore, 14/1 Mashrai, Silver Rime, 20/1 General Tufto, 25/1 Rock Peak, 33/1 DaddyÂ´s Boy, Monashee Rock, 200/1 Ice Choice.

No doubt this will be appearing in the price gap section and is another maiden race where we can speculate on the bigger prices - Mashrai and Silver Rime are positioned just before the "outsiders"

PRICE GAPS
320 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Royal Indulgence, 11/2 Spunger, 6/1 Measured Response, 7/1 Trevian, 8/1 Libre, Soviet Sceptre, 10/1 Our Kes, 20/1 Sekula Pata, 25/1 Cat Six, Factual Lad, Mango Masher, 33/1 KingÂ´s Spear, 40/1 Red Current, 50/1 Ernmoor, Tullythered, Vehari .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ROYAL INDULGENCE (nap) has been thriving in these conditions and can complete a hat-trick before the handicapper has his say. Our Kes may be the biggest danger, while Measured Response and Spunger have both seen the tail of the selection recently and are unlikely to be far away once more.[SR]

Not so much a standout price gap when compared with our templates of United Nations and Palmetto Point. Also, a multiple winner in handicap company - although the hint is he is out of the handicappers reaches at present

I'd be happier with the place only but I said that before to see 11/4 and 5/2 shorts bolt home with the similar price gap profile
600 KILBEGGAN
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Right Combination, 9/2 Gran Reserva, 7/1 King Ali, 8/1 SheÂ´s The Question, 12/1 Lord Celtic, 14/1 Even Homer Nods, Kilo Charlie, Komoto, Leamybe, 16/1 YouÂ´re My Girl, 20/1 Chancer Daly, Key Devil, 25/1 Dont Askim, MacÂ´s Conflict, Restored Promises, 33/1 Chestnut Man ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RIGHT COMBINATION is more likely to be capable of improvement than any of his rivals in what looks an ordinary 3m maiden. The Presenting gelding was having his first run since April when a satisfactory fourth to Mister Month in a 2m1f contest at Tralee, and left an impression that he would stay further when keeping on for second behind the well-fancied Insan Flyer at Down Royal last Saturday.\n

Yes the price gap is there but this is another maiden hurdle - remember what happened to the 2/7 shot last time out? I'll probably sit this one out (cue 10 length win )
630 KILBEGGAN
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 The Crazy Parson, 6/1 Oily Colman, 13/2 Karlo, 8/1 Maree Prince, Royal Mount Loftus, 10/1 Eight Fifty Six, Moscow Summit, 12/1 Mullica Lad, Pharviva, 14/1 Dead Level, 20/1 Some Trainer, Theyankfromclare, 25/1 Gannon Again .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THE CRAZY PARSON has shown improvement in his two outings since returning from a break, indicating that Tony Martin is now managing to get the best out of him after taking him into his yard early in the year. It looked as if the 2m1f trip was too sharp for him when he was third to Bordante at Ballinrobe in July, and he coped well with today's distance when 4l second to Makemtakeit here two weeks ago. The winner of that race was well treated, carrying only a mandatory penalty for a very easy success at Tralee two days previously.\n

A good price gap -the distance is a slight concern - 3 miles + in firm ground
150 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Slam, 8/1 Alfathaa, 10/1 Dusk, Mushtaaq, Opera Prince, 12/1 Love Galore, 14/1 Mashrai, Silver Rime, 20/1 General Tufto, 25/1 Rock Peak, 33/1 DaddyÂ´s Boy, Monashee Rock, 200/1 Ice Choice .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Plenty of potential on display but SLAM sets a high standard on his Washington Singer Stakes fifth here last month and is difficult to oppose. Alfathaa may be the best each-way alternative.[FC]

Huge price gap - again this is an ideal scenario - reinforced by the difficult to oppose words - likely to go off at a price significantly below the 10/11 , Slam will probably end up at a ridiculously short price which will prove unbackable to all bar Bill GAtes ( and why's he betting anyway - he doesn't need the money!)

Slim pickings really as far as the price gaps arte concerned but worth seeing how they fare from a win and a place only perspective
FOOTY

SOme good matches tomorrow for the Euro 2008 qualifiers and plenty of great opportunities for high risk and lower risk trading - more to follow.

As always if I bag a big winner with the each way punts, I'm calling it a day - these are highly speculative and the prices backed indicate tha

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2007-Sep-2

2/9

King i Waiting unplaced, Folow the star won at 10/1, Davids Day non runner, Quick was placed as was Liberman, Heidi Hi unplaced at 20/1 as was Almora Guru at 7/1, March Maite unplacd at 11/1, Italian Girl unplaced an Expensive a non runner.
The winner came in that maiden hurdle I warned you about - the 2/7 shot - 3rd!

With the price gaps, wins for bauer, Bunsen Burner, Uncle Junior I left well alone and it came 3rd, Dual Gales was a no bet, debutant in a bumper and duly came unplaced,

Nice over 2.5 goals with Rangers, not so with MAn Utd who had to struggle to score in the 71st minute. My lay of Bolton came is as Everton scored first allowing a quick trade out. Lierpool was the kind of game you dream of - never in doubt.
Pity the Lyon game wasn't in running. What did I say about late goals? They were 2-0 down at home and scored 3 in the 70+minutes to win 3-2 - it would have been a superb trading game as I would have backed them at 2-0 down - getting over evens about a 4/9 shot at home!

Again the price gaps delivered and the ones to avoid didn't deliver!

EACH WAY PUNTS
305 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Timarwa, 7/2 Baby Blue Eyes, 13/2 Queen Of France, 8/1 Sina Cova, 10/1 Magic Carpet, 12/1 Bold Bibi, Many Colours, 14/1 Aqraan, 16/1 Navajo Moon, 25/1 Rock Lily .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TIMARWA will be hard to beat if fully recovered from the ailment that contributed to her odds-on flop in a Listed race at Leopardstown two weeks ago. Reported to be sore behind in the aftermath of that race, she is the apparent pick of this field on overall form that has featured fourth placings behind Peeping Fawn in the Pretty Polly and in the Irish Oaks.\n

Slight question mark about the fav - Queen of France and Magic Carpet each way
405 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Listen, 11/4 Albabilia, 3/1 Saoirse Abu, 7/1 Mad About You, 20/1 Solas Na Greine, 25/1 Allicansayis Wow, 33/1 Juniper Berry, Queen Jock, 200/1 Miss Red Eye.
MAd about you each way

230 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Hart Of Gold, 3/1 Arctic Desert, 10/1 High Bray, 12/1 Convince, Jools, Royal Guest, 16/1 Brave Jack, Lizarazu, 20/1 Ceredig, Full Spate, 25/1 Dumas, Simpleton, Thomas Lawrence, 33/1 North Fleet.
A seller so worth High BRay and Convince each way
245 KILLARNEY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Mudslinger, 3/1 Mr Muffin Man, 5/1 Conquistadores, 6/1 Plemont Bay, 14/1 LÂ´Escapade, 20/1 Kerryhead Seamus, Winners Delight, 25/1 Bemorespecial, By Accident, Changing Guard, Crested Pochard, Denadoon, Pidgeon House, Zetec.
Plemont Bay and L'escapade each way
250 MARKET RASEN
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Wilhewispa, 2/1 Given A Choice, 7/1 King Of Slane, 8/1 Aliba, 14/1 Summer Lodge, 16/1 Herninski, 25/1 Global Achiever, 33/1 Zendaro, 40/1 Rockatorri, 66/1 By Storm, 100/1 Cottam Karminski,
Novices event and I'll chance Summer lodge and Alibi each way

Again, far too many selections today and I'll get out early if lucky enough to hit a winner or big priced place

PRICE GAPS
235 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Great Barrier Reef, 11/2 Going Public, 10/1 Another Express, Dedo, Warsaw, 12/1 Domingues, Rock Moss, 16/1 Norman Invader, 20/1 Perfect Polly .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GREAT BARRIER REEF looks a fine prospect on the evidence of his debut second behind Sir Gerry in the Gimcrack. His participation in the Group 2 York contest without the benefit of an introductory run provided a major hint about his home reputation, and while it might be misleading to adopt a strict interpretation of form involving third-placed Swiss Franc (second in the Coventry Stakes and third in the July Stakes), the race gives him a very solid foundation for the remainder of his two-year-old career.\n

Looks a strong candidate for Aiden O'BRien and a definite for me today
305 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Timarwa, 7/2 Baby Blue Eyes, 13/2 Queen Of France, 8/1 Sina Cova, 10/1 Magic Carpet, 12/1 Bold Bibi, Many Colours, 14/1 Aqraan, 16/1 Navajo Moon, 25/1 Rock Lily .

Appears in the each way section and a question mark over health
530 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Blue Space, 11/2 Barbs Pink Diamond, Chant De Guerre, 7/1 SheÂ´s So Pretty, 9/1 Cavalry Twill, 12/1 Mayireneyrbel, 16/1 Hermanita, Paymaster General, Woolfall Rose, 20/1 Bring It On Home .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is easiest to picture marked improvement from BLUE SPACE, who was in command up the straight on the Lingfield AW last time on her handicap debut. Barbs Pink Diamond and She's So Pretty can follow her home.[RA]

Blue Space

Improved a bit for her first taste of handicapping, justifying co-favouritism over 1m2f on AW at Lingfield; could easily have more to give, with the extra 2f viable and return to turf (third in maiden on good to firm) not a concern; leading contender.
A couple of itfs and buts regarding change to turf and up in trip but the price gap is very definitely there
215 KILLARNEY
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 King Of Redfield, 5/1 Altnadua, 6/1 Sheshali, 7/1 Queen Althea, 10/1 Cami Collins, Lupita, What An Act, 12/1 Patrickswell, 14/1 Latymon Lady, Mull Wine, Pigeon Flight, 16/1 Shaantina, 20/1 Chapel Court, Chess, Cut The Point, 25/1 Swallow Cliff, Ten Minutes Late, 33/1 Do Be Brief ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KING OF REDFIELD has a good chance of scoring here for Shane Broderick. Having finished in midfield in Flat maidens at the Curragh and at Leopardstown, the King's Theatre gelding made an encouraging transition to hurdling when losing out by only a short head to Won In The Dark at Roscommon. He can be fancied to uphold form with Queen Althea, who was a shade over 12l away in sixth place and has since failed to improve on fairly modest Flat form when seventh in a 1m4f Sligo handicap.\n

18 runner maiden hurdle - not for me this one

515 KILLARNEY
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Oscar Night, 5/1 Maxi, 11/2 Crossbarry Boy, 6/1 Another Notice, 7/1 Ballyhoctor, 12/1 Peazar, 14/1 Spring Vision, 16/1 Sandyzar, 20/1 Charming Gael, Ohmissymoss, Private View, What A Dude, 25/1 Killiney Ranger, 33/1 Naidroca .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OSCAR NIGHT should prove equal to this task if putting in an error-free round on his first venture over fences. A former maiden hurdle winner who won a Flat race at Limerick during the summer, he has not enjoyed the best of fortune in a couple of his runs over hurdles in recent months. He appeared to be given too much to do when second to Aldhaher Beebers at Bellewstown, and after finishing second to the progressive Imperial Rose at Limerick, he squandered what looked a winning opportunity when falling at the final flight at Cork.\n

One of those 2/1 - - - 5/1 selections and a beginner chanse in Ireland to boot - not one I would be overtly confident about but let's see if this one places at least

Quietish day - there are some price gaps involving 2 market leaders then a big price gap to the 3rd - these could be experimented with for twin progressive cycles - where both can be backed in the expectation that the winner will come from one of the two

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2007-Sep-1

1/9

Penang unplaced - cow girl, , the obvious selection placed easily enough, Stormy Journey palced at 14/1 for BEtfair backers despite 2 non runners reducing field to 7 for traditional each way backers without the exchanges, Gala Sunday placed at 16/1 ,
PRICE GAPS - too many selections yesterday nowhere near the Palmetto Point type of bet, bar, in fact, the 2 winners of the day. I did say I was including the 9/4 - - - 5/1 and 5/2 - - - 5/1 to see how they get on and generally they were very competitive and placed. I am keen to keep an eye on them because the prices are appealing, around 11/4.
I hope you left Dingle Belle alone - another maiden hurdle shortie goes down. Top Charts won and the price gap was decent 4/5 - - - 6/1 - slight difference from 5/2 - - - 5/1!
She's the biscuit - a 5/2 - - - 5/1 chance, came 2nd, as did LA Motta will a similar price gap, -Ellens academy went off at 6/1 and was unplaced , again another 5/2 - - - 6/1 chance.
The 2nd obvious opportunity of the day was McCartney evens - - - 5/1 who won as the price gap suggested.
Bright Mind would have been another obvious candidate yesterday att an unbackable 4/11 and came 2nd
Sugar Ray came 2nd at evens and ewas another 2/1 - - - 5/1 price gapper.

So what can we learn from yesterday? Well the 3 proper price gappers were McCartney, Topofthecharts, and Bright Sky, 2 wins and a 2nd at an unbackable 4/11. The others are great place only candidates and could be included perhaps at smaller stakes. Today is the usual Saturday bookie benefit day so I am going to tread warily.
EACH WAY PUNTS
A couple of big priced places yesterday - agian it is advantageous to use BEtfair's place only market because if an 8 runner race has a non runner then Betfair will still pay out 3 for the place where traditional bookmakers will restrict place only pay out to 2
430 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Prince Erik, 5/2 Temlett, 3/1 Cool Touch, 5/1 Consulate, 8/1 King In Waiting, 25/1 Zibeline, 50/1 Summerville Star, 66/1 Jobbs Comforter.

Tight field and an obvious each wy candidate in King in Waiting just before the perceived outsiders

440 KILBEGGAN
BETTING FORECAST: 2/7 Uncle Junior, 11/2 Katalak, 8/1 Follow A Star, 10/1 Davids Day, Derryvarey Beg, 14/1 Dover Street, 16/1 Hallys Goal, 20/1 IainÂ´s River, Key Devil, Like The Da, Paddy The Dragon.
Another maiden hurdle and although the price suggests a shoe in it is a good race for an each way punt - I will swerve the obvious candidate Katalak and opt for Follow a star and Davids Day each way
300 NEWTON ABBOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Admiral Peary, 11/4 Galtee View, 4/1 Quick, 6/1 Not Today Sir, 15/2 Liberman, 20/1 Happy Hussar, 25/1 Esterelle, Jewel That Shines, 28/1 Lost In The Snow, Uncle Max, 33/1 Little Alf, 40/1 Stansted, 50/1 Kal, Matrix.
Again Liberman is priced to be competitive in the place market with Quick an obvious each way candidate
210 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Welsh Auction, 3/1 Diamond Hurricane, 9/2 Almora Guru, 6/1 College Land Boy, Orotund, 16/1 Heidi Hi, 25/1 First Valentini, Tenterhooks, 33/1 Didactic, Flushed, Signor Whippee, 100/1 Bidders Itch, Final Desire, Harts In Mo Shun, Littlemadgebob, Mandriano.

Apprentice selling stakes - hmmm more please!
HEidi Hi and Almora Guru each way - one obvious and one speculative just before the 25/1 shots
425 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Double Doors, 5/4 Easterly Breeze, 8/1 Allaire, 14/1 March Mate, 33/1 King Zeal, 50/1 Betterlatethanever, Serial Habit, 66/1 Hayfield Flyer, Shady Bay.

All things being equal this should concern the first 2 in the betting but this is horse racing - Alla ire is the obvious candidate but March MAte has one to beat to palce at tastier odds if we can safely discount the outsiders in this maiden
205 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Heaven Sent, 7/2 Sweet Lilly, 8/1 Italian Girl, 10/1 Basaata, Bicoastal, Tarteel, 12/1 Expensive, 16/1 Pintle, 20/1 In Safe Hands, 25/1 Chantilly Tiffany, 33/1 Elusive Flash, Ransom Captive, 50/1 Lady Livius, Satulagi, Tiana, 100/1 Hansomelle.
1st tier 13/8, 7/2
2nd tier 8/1, 10/1, 12/1, 16/1
3rd tier 20/1 bar
Indian girl and expensive for me each way

PRICE GAPS
250 CHESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Bauer, 5/1 Sagredo, 13/2 LundyÂ´s Lane, 7/1 Dansili Dancer, 9/1 John Terry, 10/1 Ogee, 16/1 Galient, Gavroche, Solent, 20/1 Mikao .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BAUER (nap), bred to improve with time, has read the script and has looked to have a good prize in him ever since his encouraging reappearance in the spring. Last month's narrow 1m4f Pontefract defeat did nothing to dispel that conviction and further progress is surely on the cards over this extra trip. There are some capable handicappers in opposition and course winner Galient, representing last year's winning stable, could be a live threat from a dangerous-looking mark.[PJ]

Again one for the record keeping - 2/1 - - - 5/1 - will he place again?

330 DOWNROYAL

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Bunsen Burner, 4/1 Marizan, 6/1 Dearg, Maude Gonne, 8/1 Icemancometh, 10/1 Dontpaytheferryman, 14/1 Panamericano, 16/1 Bally Folan Girl, Contepomi, 20/1 Bye Bye Rio, Crafty George .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BUNSEN BURNER (nap) has had a busy two-year-old campaign so far, but seems to take his racing well and will be hard to beat in this company. The son of Lil's Boy has shown decent form in three nursery starts, highlighted by a 2l win in a Galway contest in which Thursday's Tipperary nursery winner Billyford was another 4l away in third. He ran another good race under a big weight at Tralee, and should have no difficulty confirming the form of that race with Icemancometh, who was two short heads behind him and is 9lb worse off now.\n
Marizan has plenty to find with Bunsen Burner on running in an auction maiden at The Curragh in April,

I include this one purely based on the "will be hard to beat" tag. The price gap is really not significant enough

440 KILBEGGAN

BETTING FORECAST: 2/7 Uncle Junior, 11/2 Katalak, 8/1 Follow A Star, 10/1 Davids Day, Derryvarey Beg, 14/1 Dover Street, 16/1 Hallys Goal, 20/1 IainÂ´s River, Key Devil, Like The Da, Paddy The Dragon.

Far too short a price to be getting involved and a maiden hurdle to boot

740 KILBEGGAN
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Dual Gales, 9/2 Cool Bob, 6/1 DamienÂ´s Oscar, Oronoco Flow, 10/1 DruidÂ´s Chair, Warren Dream, Zaffurette, 12/1 Some Stunt, 14/1 Fernhill Dara, Sonny Barden, 16/1 Erne Allstar, My Lucky Break .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DUAL GALES gets the vote to score for the Willie and Patrick Mullins alliance. The six-year-old son of Lord Of Appeal is out of a dam who won a good ground Gowran Park bumper back in July 1998 and in what looks a weak affair he might prove good enough on his debut coming from these quarters.

A debutant in a bumper is hardly a convincing profile

Price gaps? - Well there are no McCartneys or topofthecharts today aand there isnt one horse I would say stands out if I was to put up a nap of the day.

FOOTY
Extremely tricky day in the Premiership today bar the Livepool v Derby game which looks a great lay of Derby who should find the Reds far too hot.
I also predict trouble for Sunderland and will opt for an over 2.5 goal trade - Man Utd are due to do a demolition job on someone soon, Sir Hairdryer will make sure of that. Could be today with Roy" Keano" Kean'es SUnderland looking to finally realise that the Premiership will not be all 1-0's at home to Spurs

Bolton do not have the profile of a high scoring side and I will chance a lay of Bolton early doors today against a resolute Everton. I hope that Everton will score first to enable me to trade out but if Bolton take the lead I won't be overtly concerned as they have let leads go too often

Middlesbrough are a speculative lay for me, especially at the price as I would simply never back them at evens even at Home. Brum are no pushovers and look to have a decent attacking option

Over 2.5 goals could be the call in the Rangers v Gretna game today - you'll get bigger than the 1/7 on the straight win

I always fancy Lyon at home for one of my back and lay off after they score first trades, if the game is in running. Facing Le MAns today, they shuld oblige, although a characteristic of their play last year was a welter of late goals - not ideal for this type of trade.

Tomorrow the Arse face Portsmouth who have been a throrn in their side both home and away and I will chance a tight affair and an under 2.5 goal trade for the first 30 mins or so.
I'm still a fan of Man City even away from home and may chance a lay of Blackburn early doors

Chelsea at 8/11 are a big price awway to Villa and I suspect another very tight game and a probable 1-0 scoreline

Can BArca get the ball rolling and can Frank Rijkaard accomodate his forwards without comrpomising his defence - again, like Lyon, this is one for my back BArca and lay off after they score (hopefully) first. If they go a goal down, I will get involved with them again at the higher odds

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2007-Aug-30

31 aug

Thursday, 30 August 2007

31 AUG

Gilded Truffle 4th at 14/1 , alas no place, Shake on it won at 9/1, Welcome Approach 2nd at 3/1, Arfinnit hd 4th at 5/1 , again no place payout, Casablanca minx 1st at 10/1 but I did say get out if you hit a winner early on - don't bother listening to me!

Price gaps, I left Strike an ark alone and it came nowhere, Royal Indulgence won (again another horse I didn't think would be a good bet - again - don't bother listening to me!), Rockfield Lodge wins, Achill Island won in a very controversial race at an unbackable price 2/7, and Desparate Dan consented to put his best foot forward and won

Another clean sweep on the price gaps - surely this is going to go tits up at some stage -is it?

EACH WAY BETS

I still chose the right races but the wrong outsiders - v frustrating to see a 14/1 winner getting home when you chose other outsiders

220 CHESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Demisemiquaver, 5/4 Sues Surprise, 8/1 Cow Girl, 20/1 Penang, 50/1 Taran Tregarth, 66/1 Cardington Queen, 150/1 Mistblack, 200/1 Lilymay,
Clearly a 2 horse race, but these are ladies so may be temperamental and unpredictable - Cow girl looks the obvious selection but Penang is not priced as an outright outsider and will be a far bigger price to nick a place at least - very speculative

250 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Dingle Belle, 6/1 Natural Force, 8/1 Curragh Mountain, Norther Bay, 10/1 Lynott, Spaceman, 14/1 Last Warrior, Zorooni, 20/1 Bleu Exit, Canulos, Gettysburg, High Pressure, Knockalt, 25/1 Sarahs Gift.

A maiden hurdle and I will always opt for the each way option against a shortie. although this will probably appear in the PRice Gap section! - Curragh mountain (3rd ) and Lynott(5th) each way
230 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Artsu, Only A Game, 4/1 Ramatni, 5/1 Thompsons Walls, 10/1 Stormy Journey, 14/1 Atephobia, Smileforawhile, 25/1 Moonlight Gambler,
A nursery so I can be speculative Stormy Journey and Thomposn walls each way
410 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Alberts Story, 11/2 JoshuaÂ´s Gold, Zain, 8/1 Miss Porcia, 10/1 Gala Sunday, Lauro, 12/1 Bold Indian, 14/1 Goodwood Spirit, 16/1 Just Dust, 20/1 Howards Rocket, Moonstreaker, Oeuf A La Neige, Pianoforte, Terenzium, 25/1 Anthemion, 33/1 Ulysees.
Gala Sunday and LAuro each way for me - possitioned to be competitive for a place in a competitive looking handicap
440 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Colchium, 4/1 Mister Benedictine, 5/1 Kavachi, 7/1 Gallego, 10/1 Batchworth Blaise, 12/1 Theatre Royal, 14/1 Spice Bar, Waterline Twenty, Windy Prospect, 16/1 Blue Line, 25/1 Croft, Mocha Java, 33/1 Bollywood, Compton Express.

Lady riders handicap - worth speculating again - Batchworth blaise (5th) and Theatre Royal each way
315 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Colony, 5/1 Emmrooz, Funny Me, 8/1 Black Dahlia, Irish Mayhem, Ridge Dance, Winged Legacy, 12/1 Brexca, Nowaira, 16/1 KingÂ´s Wonder, 20/1 Sinbad The Sailor, 25/1 Colour Trooper, Dr Livingstone, 50/1 Irish Artist, Pinnacle Point.

Many debutants so again speculating may pay off with a surprise result
I'll opt for the 2 12/1 shots Brexca and Nowaira
700 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Rio Taffeta, 4/1 Smokeyourpipe, 5/1 Lord Deevert, 6/1 Liani, 8/1 Desert Life, 10/1 Alexander Monarchy, 12/1 Mwindaji, 20/1 Emef Princess, 25/1 Carry On Cleo, One Called Alice, 33/1 Liz Long, Miss Willoughby.

A 5 furlong claimer primed for an upset? Mwindaji and Emef PRincess very speculatively as they'll be at big prices

Again, I'll be getting out , well wimping out, if I get an early winner at a decent price or a good priced equivalent placed horse , although the last horse will probably romp home at 25/1 knowing my luck after yesterday's last 10/1 winner!

PRICE GAPS
The strike rate is too good to be true at present. A clean sweep yesterday, albeit at none too excitable prices.
250 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Dingle Belle, 6/1 Natural Force, 8/1 Curragh Mountain, Norther Bay, 10/1 Lynott, Spaceman, 14/1 Last Warrior, Zorooni, 20/1 Bleu Exit, Canulos, Gettysburg, High Pressure, Knockalt, 25/1 Sarahs Gift .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DINGLE BELLE, who has been found wanting in the closing stages of her most recent races, has her best chance so far to open her account. She stands out in this company on the basis of her third placing behind Gleann An Sagart and subsequent winner North Shore at Cork in April, and enjoys a clear edge over both ZOROONI and CURRAGH MOUNTAIN on running at Tramore last time, when she was run of it by Ring Hill, a former French-trained Flat winner.

Mentioned earlier - a maiden hurdle

320 DOWNPATRICK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Top The Charts, 6/1 Mozamjer, 7/1 Enfield Chase, 8/1 Royal Approval, 10/1 English City, Montana Slim, 12/1 Sudden Edge .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TOP THE CHARTS has shown a level of form in handicaps that indicates a likelihood that he will prove too good for a couple of rivals who are a pound or two higher in official ratings. Tony Martin's Singspiel gelding made the frame in successive handicaps won by former Group 3 Flat winner Bobs Pride at the big meetings at Fairyhouse and Punchestown in the spring. On the first occasion, he finished 3l runner-up, and while he did not quite match that effort when 7l fourth on the second occasion he was only 3l behind third-placed Farmer Brown whose fine summer hurdling campaign culminated with a handsome win in the Galway Hurdle.

MOZAMJER is rated 2lb superior to Top The Charts, but his mark has not been put to the test in handicaps and his win in a maiden at Roscommon hardly amounts to enough to suggest that he will cope with that rival. He owed his moderate second to Dreamy Gent at Galway to the fall of the selection's stablemate Imperial Rose at the last.

"indicates a likelihood" - I'd prefer "hard to oppose"! But the price gap is very defined
455 DOWNPATRICK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Shesthebiscuit, 5/1 Yoursmineandours, 6/1 Only One Left, 8/1 Distant Piper, Sagittate, 10/1 Ansari, Jetarsu, 12/1 Moon At Midnight, Penny And Me, 14/1 Divinshki, 16/1 Dictation, Frank Moss Bennett, 20/1 At Last, Great Blasket ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SHESTHEBISCUIT (nap) has the best credentials, and the only real concern is that here recent good run of form has been achieved on different ground to today's forecast surface. It was yielding when she was second at Gowran and also when she beat Togher Castle at Killarney, and she coped well with heavy going when runner-up to Indian Four at Tralee ten days ago.

Slight price gap here and a typical tricky Irish race but let's see , for the sake of keeping records, how the horse runs
555 DOWNPATRICK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 La Motta, 5/1 Papa Power, 6/1 Radiator Rooney, 8/1 Knockmealdown, Miss Curly, 10/1 Danetime Lily, Intensify, Libras Child, 12/1 Pep In Her Step, 14/1 Smooth Steps, 16/1 Dromana Gate, 20/1 Hard Gossip ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MISS CURLY, blinkered for the first time today, is an each-way sugestion. She is certainly not without a chance if recapturing the form that she showed in taking third place behind Johnny Angel over the course and trip a year ago, since she is 14lb lower now. In fact, she has never run off such an attractive mark in a handcap career that stretches back to the 2003 season when she was runner-up on three occasions, competing off a mark in the high 50s. Her form last season included a fine second to Miracle Ridge in a 22-runner sprint handicap at Navan, and she may now reverse last month's Naas running with KNOCKMEALDOWN.

LA MOTTA, bidding to maintain a good spell of form for trainer Ado McGuinness, has a major chance. The seven-year-old, who has notched two of his three career wins over the course and trip, is 4lb lower than when beating Dooie Dancer here a year ago, and it is encouraging that he showed definite signs of a return to form when third to the well-handicapped subsequent Galway winner Emily Blake at Limerick last time. Amongst those behind was Calm Lad who won a claimer in good style at Sligo on Tuesday.

La motta

NOTE - do you really think that the favourites will go through the card at Downpatrick - stats are against this occurence
I have included these 5/2 - - - 5/1 and 9/4 ----5/1 price gaps after wins in the UK by the likes of Zain and Toy Top recently - I'll be keen to see how these perform.
My general tendency is to put precedence on UK qualifiers above the Irish

445 HAMILTON

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Ellens Academy, 5/1 Haajes, 6/1 Joyeaux, Katie Boo, 7/1 Rainbow Fox, 9/1 Steel Blue, 10/1 Yorkshire Blue, 12/1 Finsbury, 16/1 Stoic Leader, 25/1 Opal Noir, 40/1 Wainwright .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ellens Academy looked in fantastic form at Ayr on Wednesday and a reproduction of that effort would give him every chance, but he has never won two races in a row and it might be worth taking him on with HAAJES, who made a promising start to his UK career last time out.[SR]

Again not a Palmetto Point type of price gap and NOT the pick of Spotlight - caution regarding never having won 2 on the trot - you can look on this as a negative or as a pattern to be ended should the right race come up
As I said earlier 5/2 - - - 5/1 are being included although they do not really meet my ideal price gap criteria

610 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Mccartney, 5/1 Yahrab, 6/1 Donegal, 8/1 Art Master, 10/1 Scintillo, 12/1 Quick Release, 14/1 Strategic Mover .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It was hard not to be impressed by the impression McCARTNEY (nap) created at Hamilton last time and although this represents a tougher assignment, he can pass the test with flying colours. Yahrab has shaped as though a smart prospect as well and is taken to chase the selection home.[PSm]

McCartney is a previous winner for the price gaps and the price gap is certainly there -
Mccartney

Shaped with some promise on his Sandown debut and confirmed himself a smart juvenile when routing rivals in a conditions event at Hamilton; well up to making his mark in Listed company and assuming faster ground isnÂ´t a problem, he will prove very hard to beat.
Good to see those words "will prove to be very hard to beat" but a note of caution , given the time of the race, regarding ground conditions which should be checked nearer the off
640 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Bright Mind, 6/1 Harry Tricker, 7/1 Easterly Breeze, 12/1 Demolition, Elusory, 14/1 Wroughton, 16/1 Anna Towkaska, 20/1 Split The Wind, 25/1 Miss Habershon, 33/1 Covert Mission, 50/1 Lady Of Lorne .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BRIGHT MIND caught the eye in behind the impressive Broomielaw on debut and looks to have been found a good opportunity to get off the mark here. Demolition shouldn't be up to beating him, but comes from an in-form stable and could prove the best each-way alternative.[PSm]

Another maiden race and a fav based upon one previous run - I did note caution with Dubai Times and he went on and won!
As with all maidens, it should go without saying that the live market will be important

525 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Sugar Ray, 5/1 Malyana, Nur Tau, 7/1 Venir Rouge, 8/1 Rock Anthem, 10/1 Highland Harvest, Risque Heights, 20/1 Beau Sancy, Minos, 25/1 Kilburn, 33/1 Sir Liam, 66/1 Colonel Flay .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There should be plenty more to come from SUGAR RAY (nap) and he can deliver a knock-out blow to this opposition now handicapping. Malyana and Nur Tau can follow him home.[AC]

NAPS and price gaps have been performing well - an anomoly or can it continue?

It's difficult for me , now , to distinguish between horses I think won't run too well and the banker bets ,because time after time this week I've been surprised by the bigger priced winners eg 5/2 etc, which is why I have cast the price gap net a little fiurther this time and included these, for record keeping purposes more than anything.

Will the 4 Downroyal price gappers win? Instincts and experience tell me that it is difficult for multiple favs to win at a single venue in Ireland, but with horse racing you never can tell.
Too many price gappers for me today as well - I would be happier with one or 2

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2007-Aug-30

30 aug

PRince Kalouman 4th yesterday, Just Lille 2nd for each way backers, Nufoodh and Messiah GArvey unplaced, and Judgethemoment 3rd at 8/1 for each way backers made for a non too exciting each way day. PRICE GAPS - wins for Dubai Times, Zain, Wolf River, Toy Top and Atlantic Coast. John KEats came 3rd BUT the price gap near the off was not the one reflected in the betting forecast. - John Keats at 9/4, and Charles Parnell at 5/2 was not quite the 9/4 - - - 11/2 in the morning
Midnight Sky was a no bet if you saw the red highlight yesterday "not an easy race to find a way into"with Midnight Sky actually not even mentioned in Spotlight.

My thanks must go the Sven for providing a welcome boost to my betting bank yesterday. 11/8 about a premiership side against newly promited teams from to the Championship I'll take that price all day.
Pity I didn't put it up on the blog. Again it was one of those bets where you back the team before the off and them lay them after they (hopefully) score the first goal and trade the drop in price

EACH WAY BETS
Since the inception of this blog I've had a 20/1 winner, a couple of 14/1's and an 11/1 and a smattering of shorter priced winners., but I've also had yesterday's 25/1 shot at the wrong end of a photo and another 14/1 at the wrong end of a photo
615 BELLEWSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 De La Grandera, 3/1 Eskadron, 9/2 Soneva Gili, 7/1 Almanyan, 10/1 Russian Empress, 12/1 Nans Best, 14/1 Gilded Truffle, 20/1 Coral Beauty, Entre Chat, Molly Wee, Nanita Bonita, Sean Og Coulston, 25/1 Starstruck Peter, 33/1 Oriel Flow, 50/1 Oldtown Green,
Classic 3 tier - 1st tier 13/8, 3/1, 9/2 - 2nd tier 7/1 ,10/1 ,12/1, 14/1 3rd tier 20/1 bar those
I'm going to look for 2 from the 2nd tier in Almanyan and Gilded truffle
220 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Royal Indulgence, 5/1 Measured Response, 6/1 Border Edge, Sir Haydn, 13/2 Recalcitrant, 8/1 Western Roots, 9/1 General Flumpa, 11/1 Beaver, 14/1 Voice Mail, 28/1 Hey Presto.
A tight betting heat 5/1, 6/1, 6/1, 13/2, 8/1, 9/1 - very congested - I'll chance Border edge and western roots - 3rd and 5th betting forecast favs
250 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Central Force, 5/1 Willow Dancer, 6/1 Distiller, 8/1 Castara Bay, 10/1 Four Miracles, 12/1 Calculating, Shake On It, 14/1 Mardi, 16/1 Berry Hill Lass, Golan Way, 20/1 Aegis, Maid Of Ale, 25/1 Opera Crown, 33/1 Putra Laju.
As this is a handicap, I'm going to venture away from the first 5 in the betting and opt for Calculating and Shake on it each way - just before the outsiders
210 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Attacca, 5/1 Anthemion, 7/1 Barataria, Zabeel Tower, 8/1 LindenÂ´s Lady, Lobengula, Miss Porcia, 12/1 Gifted Flame, 14/1 Adobe, Jabraan, 20/1 Brace Of Doves, 25/1 Mis Chicaf, 50/1 Senor Eduardo.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to be confident about many of these. Anthemion runs this track well and down in grade today he should give a good account under conditions that should suit, but like triple 7f course winner Attacca he may be vulnerable to the strong finish of BARATARIA.[AC]

Chance ofr a specualtive punt on Gifted flame and Adobe each way, again just before the outsiders
240 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Toy Top, 7/2 Methaaly, 4/1 Welcome Approach, 5/1 Malapropism, 8/1 Strensall, 10/1 Rothesay Dancer, 12/1 Ptarmigan Ridge, 25/1 Strawberry Patch, 33/1 Seafield Towers, Sharp Hat, 50/1 RosieÂ´s Result, 100/1 Compton Lad, Mutayam, Sokoke.

Remember Toy Top - yes a price gap horse and winner yesterday - I'll give him a miss today and opt for Welcome Approach ()3rd) and Strensall(5th) each way
TIPPERARY
455
Flying Cheetah each way - an Aiden OBrien horse and clearly not one of the stable stars but an each way price at around 14/1 - probably won't win but Aiden O'Brien has produced 25/1 winners in the past !
230 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Spirit Of Coniston, 5/1 Midnight Sky, 6/1 Kennington, Mystery Pips, 8/1 RubyÂ´s Dream, 10/1 Arfinnit, Elvina, 14/1 Bee Magic, Diamond Josh, HeÂ´s A Rocket, 20/1 Meikle Barfil, 25/1 Twinned, VioletÂ´s Pride.

A constricted betting market here and the perceived competitiveness makes me want to back a couple of outsiders in Arfinnit and Elvina , nestled in between the 8/1 and 14/1 shots
500 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Millfield, 4/1 Blue Empire, 6/1 Green Pirate, 7/1 Scuba, 8/1 Burford Lass, Casablanca Minx, 12/1 Boreana, 16/1 Sovereignty, Wodhill Schnaps, 20/1 Ashleigh Anderson, Grand Palace, 25/1 Night In.
Burford Lass and Casablanca Minx are priced to be competitive from a place only perspective

Again there are a lot of each ways today and common sense will tell you to bail out if you get a a good priced winner or a decent payout for a bis priced placed horse

PRICE GAPS

There is a system doing the rounds based exactly on what I've been doing for the last 2 years on various blogs -ie backing price gaps in the betting forecast. It's called the Durex, or duraglit, or something like that system (just found it - the siralex system)so leave it alone - another chancer trying to extract your money from ideas that were not his! The bar steward!

A great day yesterday - read my notes re John Keats - no price gap at the off, and Midnight Sky -NOT EVEN MENTIONED BY SPOTLIGHT! I hope these are apparent to you without me needing to point out which ones to leave alone.
Unbackable prices alas on Wolf River - obviuously quite a few people had the same feelings as the Spotlight writer.
Pleasing to see ToyTop and Zain win at, relatively speaking, working mans' prices. Strange that I didn't have too much confdence in these 2 and they win at good odds

545 BELLEWSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Strike An Ark, 5/1 Sian Thomas, 13/2 Amber Trix, 7/1 Keep In Touch, 8/1 SallyÂ´s Dream, 12/1 Mintmarsh, Zamona, 14/1 Hannah Rose, SheÂ´s The Question, 20/1 Inca Wood, Look WhoÂ´s Back, 25/1 Back To Como, Clare Dalgan, Sandy Road, 33/1 Dylan Two, Minerva Queen ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: STRIKE AN ARK, a winner on the Flat at Gowran on her penultimate start, has good overall credentials on her first run over hurdles since she was a beaten favourite for a novice event at Musselburgh early in the year. She was taking on some smart types when seventh in a Fairyhouse maiden in which De Valira beat Arrive Sir Clive at Fairyhouse last December, and had previously earned a high rating chasing by chasing home the smart Grangeclare Lark in a Grade 3 mares novice hurdle at Down Royal.

The hint of a price gap but not a horse I'd be having - coming back from a lay off, although does have RUBY RUBY RUBY RUBY on board

220 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Royal Indulgence, 5/1 Measured Response, 6/1 Border Edge, Sir Haydn, 13/2 Recalcitrant, 8/1 Western Roots, 9/1 General Flumpa, 11/1 Beaver, 14/1 Voice Mail, 28/1 Hey Presto .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A modest apprentice handicap wouldn't be the most attractive of betting mediums but something has to win and that something may well be ROYAL INDULGENCE, who won in sufficient style at Chepstow on Monday to suggest that he can defy a 6lb penalty. [MCu]

You get the idea!

350 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Rockfield Lodge, 9/2 Alls Fair, 15/2 Sunny Sprite, 9/1 Farpedon, 10/1 Oceana Blue, 12/1 Raiding Party, 14/1 Imperial Mark, 20/1 Master Of Arts, 22/1 Eastbourne, 25/1 Sweet Dane, 40/1 Peer Pressure .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Unless one of the newcomers is decent - and there are one of two half-interesting ones on paper, worth a market check - this is likely to go to ROCKFIELD LODGE (nap), whose latest Haydock second is decent enough form and who had run well enough here the time before. With a BHB rating of 78, one of the newcomers will have to be around about an 85 horse at least to beat him, without the benefit of previous experience. [MCu]

Note of caution - maiden race - some newcomers - worth looking for price moves, a la 16/1 system for any the bookies fancy against the hot pot

655 TIPPERARY
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Achill Island, 5/1 Technica Tweak, 6/1 I Confess, Wing Stealth, 8/1 Better Built, 10/1 Choosey Girl, Magna Cum Laude, 12/1 Glenconnor Lad, Treeko, 16/1 Coffee Tea Or Me, 20/1 Contingency Plan, Exploration, Fast Hanna, Flag Of Honour, Monkhair, Weallshookhands ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ACHILL ISLAND is tipped to score at the third attempt. The Sadler's Wells colt is dropped back into maiden company after finishing to Lisvale in a Listed race over the course and trip three weeks ago, and it should be noted that the form of the Naas maiden in which he was second to Luz De La Luna first time out has been boosted by third-placed Alhabeeb in recording a convincing success at Tralee.\n

This system I'm none too confident of using in Ireland especially big field maidens but let's see what happens - got the right jockey trainer combo I suppose - Aiden OBrien and Keiren Fallon

300 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Desperate Dan, 5/1 Danish Blues, 6/1