Diary of a Football Fanatic!

Hello and welcome!

First things first... West Ham 3 - 4 Spurs... What a game!

Right, now that's out of my system I can continue...

It's been a while since I had the time to post on this blog - I've been slammed with stuff to do just recently.

Anyway, the good news is that the end is in sight and I should be able to start regular posts again soon (I know... I have said this before and failed to do so ).

One such thing I've been working on is Football Betting 101, a free football betting guide I've created. It discusses in detail real techniques that I myself use to identify value football bets.

I feel it's a topic that many people often talk about as being important, however, I found that no one actually discusses just how to find those value bets - so I've decided to set the record straight!

To get your copy, simply visit http://www.profitablepunter.com and sign-up to my newsletter. You then just confirm your subscription and Football Betting 101 will be at your finger tips in a tick.

NOTE:  If you are already a member of my newsletter (and many of you are), simply check your emails. You will have an email from me with the download link.

Like I say, I hope to start kicking some bookmaker butt with this blog once again in a short while and will try to start tracking the systems this coming weekend. Until then...

Have a good one,

Josh.

Hello and welcome!

It's been a while since I made posts on this blog. I've been wittering like a beaver on steroids recently and just not had time for the blog.

Last week was FA Cup week as well, so system selections were put on hold. On the topic of the FA Cup, I though Spurs might struggle against Fulham, but evidently that was not the case (we thrashed them 4-0). Unfortunately, we've been drawn at Stamford Bridge for the quarter-finals. We've already beaten Chelski once this season, my guess is it's going to take a super-human effort and 100% fit squad to even to repeat that feat.

Some of you may know, I've got a product launch planned soon and that has consumed much of my time. At the moment, I'm just trying to offers as much value to the product as I possibly can, through extra bonuses of cutting-edge methods I've been looking at, etc.

All things being well, it will be out very, very soon and I will be able to make regular updates on this blog again.

My next post on this blog should be Thursday/Friday post up system selections before the weekend, so watch out for that. With the great success of the Sequence System, I'm thinking about backing selections with my own money.

Have a good one,

Josh.

Hello and welcome!

This is just a biref update to let you all know that I won't be testing any of the systems, until normal league football resumes. The FA Cup is known for its upsets and testing the systems in such unique conditions is asking for trouble, in my opinion.

The FA Cup normally has a few cracking value bets. I haven't had a look, yet, but I'll certainly be finding a game or two to bet on for tomorrow.

Mentioned this before, but I have a little competition coming up which will all hear more about next week. Until then...

Have a good one,

Josh.

Hello and welcome!

Partly because I didn't want to deal with Tottenham's Saturday's result (which I'm not even going to comment on, by the way) I delayed this post slightly. After a 2-1 victory over 'Boro, I'm more than happy to move on now...

Today, I'm glad to say I have compiled some very interesting statistics for you, which may worth be thinking about when it comes to betting.

Statistics porve that in the Premiership this season:

- 81 games (51.26%) have ended in home victories

- 40 (25.81%) games have ended in draws.

and...

34 games (21.94%) have ended in away victories.

In addition to this:

- 96 games (62%) have finished under 2.5 goals

and...

-52 games (38%) have finished over 2.5 goals

Furthermore, if we look into more detail we can also find that when it comes to correct score betting:

In descending order, the most freqeunt scores are as follows...

1 - 1 is the most frequent score, occuring 22 times (14%)

1 - 0 is joint most frequent score, also occuring 22 times (14%)

2 - 0 is next, occuring 18 times (15%)

2 - 1 is next, also occuring 18 times  (15%)

0 - 1 is next occuring 15 times (10%)

0 - 0 is next occuring 14 times (9%)

3 - 0 is next occuring 10 times (6%)

3 - 1 is next occuring 7 times (5%)

1 - 2 is next occuring 7 times (5%)

0 - 2 is next occuring 5 times (3%)

Now, theoretically one can use this information to decide, on average, what the odds should be for each event and possibly find value bets that exceed this expectation. Of course it's not quite as easy as that, but the bookmakers decide odds for correct scores and many other events based on their 1x2 preedictions so analysing them in this way gives us a different approach and can only help us find an edge.

For example, looking at the 0-2 scorelines, I haven't checked any data to verify this, but I would imagine that laying some fancied away sides to win 0-2 would have yielded enormous returns this year and may continue to do so for the remainder of the season.

If you found this helpful and would like me to post similar pieces of data on other leagues, leave a comment or something and I'll see what I can do.

Perhaps an analysis of all English leagues and the major European ones is in order?

Have a good one,

Josh.

Hello and welcome!

Let the testing of the systems begin!

Firstly, you may want to know how the new structure of this blog will work...

Every Friday, from this point on, my priority will be to cover the bets for the weekend. On Mondays, the summary of the systems performance will be made and profit figures released. It will be during that week, that I will write on other gambling related topics. The only reasons I can see that this patter may be interupted is due to the nature of my third system, which will mean I could announce a lay at any time, depending on when steamers appear.

Bookie Buster:

This week, I've identified three bets, I'm happy to include in an accumulator. To make things 100% fair and accurate, I've used the same bookmaker for all bets. After all, it's not possible to mix-and-match with different bookmakers, wehn it comes to accumulators. This weekend, it turns out, that Bet1128, offer the best odds. For this reason, I'll be testing using their odds.

The bets I'm happy to include are...

Everton to beat Man. City @ 1.90

Middlesborough to beat Sheff. Utd (Draw No Bet Conditions) @ 1.90

Chelsea to beat Aston Villa @ 1.30

Simply put, Chelsea are immense, with no weak links in the team. Villa have had a good run recently and, for this reason I think people may overestimate them, making Chelsea good value, which is why I've included then. As for Everton, I just think they'll be too much for City. My only real concern is that Samaras, could nick a goal for them at any time. 'Boro are inconsistent, but Sheff. Utd, have been poor this season. The draw no bet conditions gives me added security and at 1.90, I think 'Boro are a risk worth taking.

For anyone unsure at how 'Draw No Bet' works, it simply means, that if the 'Boro game ends in a draw, the bet is made invalid and will be discounted from my accumulator.

Together these odds combine to give odds of 4.69. Should 'Boro draw, the odds would descrease to 2.47.

The Sequence System:

I make it that the following four teams have won their last three matches, at least.

Arsenal
Blackburn
*Chelsea*
Liverpool

Teams with stars around them (Chelsea in this example) indicate that the team has won its last three Premiership matches AND it's last three matches (which could have been in a Europe or a domestic cup). Teams without those stars, have simply won their last three games in all competitions.

I think I said I'd be tracking both backing the opposition side 'to win' and laying the team 'on a roll' to win. Instead of lay8ing them, I'll now be backing the other team under double chance conditions, ocvering the draw, too (which is essentially the same as laying, only a little more simplistic).

'Sequence System' week 1 bets will be ...

Arsenal play at the Valley. Charlton can be backed to win at odds of 6.5. Their double chance odds are 2.38.

Blackburn host Wigan. Wigan are 4.4 to win the game and can be backed at 1.3 under double chance conditions.

Chelsea play Villa. In a conflict of interests (Chelsea are in my accumulator, remember), Villa will be backed at 12.5 to win and 3.3 on the double chance.

Liverpool have a tricky game to play against Bolton. Bolton will be backed at odds of 4.0 to win and 1.8 on the double chance.

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Feel free to let me know if you think I've made any mistakes. I'm only human and the chances are, I may make some from time to time, accidentally.

I hope everthing is clear. If not, send me a comment and I'll try to help. Fingers crossed one of these systems turns out to be a winner, at least.

Have a good one,

Josh.

P.S The other information I promised to publish at the beginning of the week can be expected on Sunday.