Diary of a Football Fanatic!

Hello and welcome!

I've posted selections of the other systems in the posts below. For some reason, I don't think I got around to updarting the results from the bets of week 4, so I'll just incoorporate them in the results update I'll make after this weekend.

All the best with your punting!

Have a good one,

Josh.

Hello and welcome!

The competitions I ran are now closed. Thanks for everyone who participated. Some responses made me laugh, some were slightly depressing, a couple of the suggested names were ludicrous and one email left me completely confused!

This weekend, I'm going to read over each of the emails again and pick the winners, which I will have sorted come the start of next week.

As far as the systems got for this weekend, both picked out the Liverpool vs. Chelsea game which I think is a first in the history of this blog, but I've included both picks all the same.

Tottenham travel to Fulham this weekend and I desperately hope we can win an away game. After a while, it stops being funny.

Have a good one,

Josh.

Hello and welcome!

Week 3 was a bit of a mixed bag. Profit with the Draw System, but a pretty bad week for the Sequence System. Having said that, both are in good profit so I can't complain. although it's too early to know how they will fair come the end of the season, though.

Also, I'm going to close the competitions tomorrow. If you want to get any entries in, they need to be done pretty swiftly.

Have a good one,

Josh.

P.S. Wait 'till you see what's coming soon.

Hello and welcome!

I decided to post system selections for this weekend's fixtures tonight and save tomorrow for something else I have planned.

I've been very busy lately and you'll see what I've been working on tomorrow. Aside from that, I also have something else that's been up my sleeve and will be ready next week. First dibs will go out to my newsletter subscribers, but I'll make it freely available to all in good time.

Methinks you're going to like all of the things I've been working on the past few weeks.

I'd like to say I'll be writing more 'content' type posts during the week, but that's unlikely to happen until things slow down after January.

You'll definitely want to watch this space.

Have a good one,

Josh.

Hello and welcome!

In the previous two post, you'll see the results of the two system I've been testing.

They are both showing a profit, which is a good sign, even though it's still early days.

I'm not sure if I'll be posting selections for tomorrow's games - depends what time I wake-up (I can't do it today, 'coz I'm leaving the house in a few moments and won't get back 'till late).

Have a good one,

Josh.

Hello and welcome!

I've been so busy, I didn't get time to post the results of last week on the blog. To overcome this, I'll just incoorporate them when I post the results after this weekends results.

I'm hoping I'll start having more time to make more frequent posts after the first week of January is up - I've been so busy recently!

Anyway, the next few posts will contain the selections for the system we are currently tracking.

I've got a little competition planned to come very soon, so you'll want to stay tuned to learn more about that.

Have a good one,

Josh.

Hello and welcome!

I think this might be my sixth post today, but it's worth pointing out that all system selections from all systems posted today will be postponed 'till next week, when I will officially be starting systems tracking.

I hope you all make a profit from your betting this weekend!

Have a good one,

Josh.

Hello and welcome!

As I'm writing this, my beloved Spurs are all over Dinamo Kiev (it's 3-0 at the time of writing!), however, I'm putting that on the side at the moment to discuss the systems I'll be using.

From now on there will be seperate categories for each system so those of who trying to track one system in particular once the weeks have rolled on, will be able to do so more easily. This will mean I'll have to post the rules, selections and results for each system in seperate posts, so if you find yourself looking for system selections/results for one week and there seem to be some missing, you'll need to go to the previous posts.

Right, I think it's time to start revealing what exactly these systems are...

Have a good one,

Josh.

Hello and welcome!

I've been contemplating which system additions to make and have been having so many great ideas that I'm going to have to testing system selections by one more week. The main reason behind this is that I need to set-up some spreadsheets together and I'm going to have to spend a bit of time learning how to incoorporate scary-sounding mathmatical functions like 'poisson distribution'.

The promising news is that all the new systems I'll be introducing look to find value and I have high hopes that at least one might yield profitable selections.

If any of you are spreadsheet wizards and would be willing help me make a spreadsheet or two, in return for recieving profitable betting insights to what you have to do to find money-making strategies and a small cash bonus please get in touch (one email address I can be contacted from is josh@profitablepunter.com).

That's all for now.

Have a good one,

Josh.

Hello and welcome!

A bit like Titus Bramble, I've made a mistake - I hold my hands up to that.

What mistake did I make?  Well, I didn't plan this blog too great...

If I'm being 100% open, I didn't really give the future of this blog too much thought and there are some things I'm going to change.

Firstly, I want to change the systems. 'The Managerial Merry Go Round', while being a profitable idea won't cut the mustard. Bets are too infrequent and I'm booting it out.

Equally, not even Sir Alex Ferguson could stop the 'Bookie Buster' from facing relegation. While it is showing a profit, I don't feel like it's going to be very helpful to anyone as there are no guidelines to getting selecting matches.

I'm keeping the 'Sequence System', although am considering a change, which would involve laying the selections we are currently backing (current results suggest this would be very profitable).

Up my sleeve I've also got some new systems I'm going to introduce.

Thought has gone into this and I think it would be much more beneficial to make a change now and see how things go 'till the end of the season, than carry on with systems I'm not happy with just for the sake of continuity.

Normality will resume next week when we'll start recording system selections, once explained the new additions.

All the best,

Josh.

Hello and welcome!

Here the are system results after week 7...

Bookie Buster:

After West Ham doing the business of Saturday, Portsmouth lost at St. James' Park, meaning an unsuccessful accumulator this week. I'm beginning to think it may be best to avoid backing away teams in accumulators, but will give this a little more thought once the initial frustration at having an away team costing us another winning accumulator has subdued.

The figures for this system are as follows...

Bets Made: 6

Bets Won: 2

Strike Rate: 40.0%

Average Odds: 4.35

Total Staked From Original Bank: 40

Total Returned: 100.12

Total Banked: 73.35

Profit/Loss: 33.35

The Sequence System:

With no bets this week results stay as they are...

Bets Made: 16

Bets Won: 3

Strike Rate: 12.50%

Average Odds. 6.77

Total Staked: 160

Total Returned: 93.70

Profit/Loss: -66.3

Double chance bets stay the same, too...

Bets Made: 16

Bets Won: 7

Strike Rate: 43.8%

Average Odds: 3.33

Total Staked: 160

Total Returned: 141.2 

Profit/Loss: -18.8

As I've stated previously, if opposing teams in form goes pear-shaped, we know we can lay the selections we're currently making turn out a profit!

Now with the system results out the way, I have one final thing to say. I've had a couple of 'thank you' emails for posting the cricket strategy I sent recently and I don't always find the time to respond to everyone personally, so I'd just like to publically state here on my blog that such emails don't go unnoticed and are appreciated.

Have a good one,

Josh.

P.S. My next post might raise a few eyebrowse. You can expect it to be posted during the week and my guess is that all punters will want to hear what I have to say - although I'm also certainly going to make one or two enemies...

Hello and welcome!

Again, I'm very short on time today so will have to be brief. Here are Week 7 system selections...

Bookie Buster:

There are two bets, I'm happy to include in an accumulator. TotalBet are offering the best odds available this weekend and for that reason, I'll be testing using their odds.

The bets I'm happy to include are...

West Ham to beat Sheff. Utd

Portsmouth to beat Newcastle (draw no bet conditions)

I thought about backing a few other teams, but value is tough to find in this top division (with millions being played each weekend the bookies can't afford to make too many mistakes!) and I'm going to stick with just these two.

At the time of writing I can get of 2.40 for Portsmouth (draw no bet) and 1.80 for the Hammers (elsewhere the price is as high as 1.84, but I can't mix and match different bookie odds for accumulators, unfortunately). Together these bets combine to make odds of 4.32.

Hopefully we win this weekend and hit another good run...

The Sequence System:

With Chelski and Man. Utd losing midweek, I make it that there are no teams on winning runs at the moment.

So there are no bets for this system this week.

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I hope everthing is clear. If not, send me a comment and I'll try to help.

My tip of the week would be to lay Liverpool. They have a great chance of beating Man. City, but I think the odds of 1.46 that can be layed on betfair at the moment are simply too low.

Hope you all make a profit this weekend!

Have a good one,

Josh.

Hello and welcome!

Here the are system results after week 6...

Bookie Buster:

I personally thought it was extremely unfortunate that the accumulator didn't win for the third time in a row. As predicted, Wigan beat Charlton, however, Man. City couldn't put the ball in the back of the net despite all their chances and only managed to draw.

For the benefit of those trying to work out the maths, the previous week with this system £65.54 was made in profit and half of that (£32.77) was placed on this weeks bet.

The figures for this system are as follows...

Bets Made: 5

Bets Won: 2

Strike Rate: 40.0%

Average Odds: 4.35

Total Staked From Original Bank: 30

Total Returned: 100.12

Total Banked: 73.35

Profit/Loss: 43.35

The Sequence System:

As I know only too well, Reading beat Spurs and Liverpool also lost. That leaves the result for this system looking as follows...

Bets Made: 16

Bets Won: 3

Strike Rate: 12.50%

Average Odds. 6.77

Total Staked: 160

Total Returned: 93.70

Profit/Loss: -66.3

By backing the teams on the 'double chance' bet, we get results that look like...

Bets Made: 16

Bets Won: 7

Strike Rate: 43.8%

Average Odds: 3.33

Total Staked: 160

Total Returned: 141.2 

Profit/Loss: -18.8

As I've stated previously, if opposing teams in form goes pear-shaped, we know we can lay the selections we're currently making turn out a profit!

Have a good one,

Josh.

P.S. I've mentioned this before in previous posts, but I may have made some miscalculations. If you think you notice any, please let me know. Thanks.

Hello and welcome!

I've been so bogged down with things I need to do lately, I haven't had much time for this blog. It's a bit of a shame 'coz I've got some great topics to cover here, yet. Hopefully it changes soon and I'll be able to go back to making 4 posts a week or so.

Anyway, here are Week 6 system selections...

Bookie Buster:

After last week, I'm happy to say I've got some selections for this system this time 'round

There are two bets, I'm happy to include in an accumulator. Expeckt are offeingr the best odds available this weekend and for that reason, I'll be testing using their odds.

The bets I'm happy to include are...

Wigan to beat Charlton

Man. City to beat Newcastle

I thought about Bolton, but I seem to be the only person around who things they are good value and so will trust the opinions of fellow punters I've been corresponding with. 

I think Wigan are a little underestimated. Paul Jewell know's what he's doing and his side are tough to beat. Furthermore, Charlton were fortunate to take all three points in their last game (if it wasnt for Carson...) and I don't think their squad is too strong.

In a way, I've surprised myself by picking Man. City - I normally like to bet on teams that show good consitency. However, Newcastle have very little to offer up front, are without their first choice goal keeper and have a weak defence. Besides, Man. City's home record isn't as bad as their table position would suggest.

On Expekt I can get odds of 2.15 for Man. City and 2.00 for Wigan. Together these bets combine to make odds of 4.3

If this bet wins, it should guarantee profits for the season with this system.

Here's to hoping...

The Sequence System:

I make it that the following four teams have won their last three matches, at least.

Tottenhaml
Liverpool

Tottenham are away to Reading. Reading can be backed at  3.25 to win or 1.62  on the double chance.

Liverpool travel to The Emirates Stadium (should be some game!). Arsenal can be backed to win at odds of  2.12 to win. On the 1X double chance they are 1.25.

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I hope everthing is clear. If not, send me a comment and I'll try to help.

Hope you all make a profit this weekend!

Have a good one,

Josh.

P.S. I've had so many great comments from those of you who signed-up for my betting newsletter so this is just a brief thanks to all of them (you know who you are). If you haven't joined yet, feel free to join at http://www.profitablepunter.com. -it's absolutely free and includes content other people would charge hundreds of pounds for.

Hello and welcome!

Tottenham 2 - 1 Chelsea. I'm absolutely ecstatic... I thought we had about as much a chance as Chris Evans has with Angelina Jolie!

Sorry for gloating, Chelsea fans, but after almost two decades, it's been a long, long time coming.

System results after week 5 are as follows...

Bookie Buster:

I decided not to make any accumulator bet for this week and it looks like it was a great decision (did tell you I fancied a few underdgos this week, didn't I!).

Results are the same as last week:

Bets Made: 4

Bets Won: 2

Strike Rate: 50%

Average Odds: 4.36

Total Staked From Original Bank: 30

Total Returned: 100.12

Profit/Loss: 70.12

A win next week could ensure we have a profitable season with this system regardless of how other bets go (subject to odds, of course).

The Sequence System:

By backing the single 'win' bet, we achieve the following results...

Bets Made: 14

Bets Won: 1

Strike Rate: 7.14%

Average Odds. 7.33

Total Staked: 140

Total Returned: 40

Profit/Loss: -100

By backing the teams on the 'double chance' bet, we get results that look like...

Bets Made: 14

Bets Won: 5

Strike Rate: 35.7%

Average Odds: 3.60

Total Staked: 140

Total Returned: 112.5 

Profit/Loss: -27.5

I've said this many times now, but the fact that this system is showing a loss is not really a problem. By reversing the system and backing in-form team,s rather than opposing them, we'd be in marvelous profit.

Have a good one,

Josh.

P.S. Once again, that was Tottenham 2 - 1 Chelsea - thank God for Arron Lennon.

Hello and welcome!

I've tried to limit myself lately, but I can't help starting off with Tottenham. Dimitar Berbatov managed to come up with the goods for us yesterday as we start to look like we could achieve a good run in the FA Cup. I had a quick glance over at Betfair (if the odds were high enough, I was going to back Spurs to win the competition) and we're currently second favourites!

I'm going to give us the touch of death and say I  we will do well in the UEFA Cup this year, even if we don't win it...

Anyway, here are the system bets for the week...

Bookie Buster:

Some people may see this as slightly controversial, but I'm deciding not to have an accumulator for the Bookie Buster this week. In short, I'm not satisfied that are suitable games to bet on in the Premiership this week.

Chelsea have odds at around 1.75 and Tottenham haven't managed to beat them in the league for years and years (a fact I know only too well). Being brutally honest, I think it's a great price and they should turn us over.

However, you can't make an accumulator out of only one bet.

I considered Villa, but they draw too much for my liking. I also thought about Newcastle, but their inconsistency doesn't inspire a wealth of confidence in me. I do think there is a bit of value on some of the underdogs this weekend, but, I'm not prepared to risk a large stake on a slim chance of success.

I've stated before in this blog that you shouldn't make a bet for the sake of it. Now, I'm practicing what I preach... 

The Sequence System:

I make it that only Liverpool have won their last three matches.

Liverpool host Reading. Reading can be backed to win at odds of 12.0 on Mansion, while Sporting Odds have them at 2.88 on the double chance.

And that's it. It's going be a quieter in terms of system selections this weekend!

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I hope everthing is clear. If not, send me a comment and I'll try to help.

My tip of the weekend? As much as I hate to say it, it has to be Chelsea. Expekt have them at 1.75, currently. In my mind, that's just too generous. I'll probably look for a Chelsea goal and trade off.

Hope you all make a profit this weekend!

Have a good one,

Josh.

Hello and welcome!

This week's been extremely chaotic for me and I haven't been able to make as many blog posts as I would have liked. Apologies for that.

On a more positive note the response to my betting newsletter has been great and I've recieved so many positive emails from people.

If you've not yet joined, it's not too late (http://www.profitablepunter.com).

Anyway, here the are system results after week 4...

Bookie Buster:

For the second time in succession, the accumulator won! The odds combined to 2.70. If I waited the odds would have dropped right down to 2.50 so the timing was perfect.

The winnings from last week were £40.58. All of this was placed on the accumulator this week winning £65.54 in profit (after commission deductions).

The figures for this system are as follows...

Bets Made: 4

Bets Won: 2

Strike Rate: 50%

Average Odds: 4.36

Total Staked From Original Bank: 30

Total Returned: 100.12

Profit/Loss: 70.12

A win next week could ensure we have a profitable season with this system (depending on the odds we get).

The Sequence System:

By backing the single 'win' bet, we achieve the following results...

Bets Made: 13

Bets Won: 1

Strike Rate: 7.7%

Average Odds. 6.97

Total Staked: 130

Total Returned: 40

Profit/Loss: -90

By backing the teams on the 'double chance' bet, we get results that look like...

Bets Made: 13

Bets Won: 5

Strike Rate: 38.5%

Average Odds: 3.65

Total Staked: 130

Total Returned: 112.5 

Profit/Loss: -17.5

As I wrote earlier, if opposing teams in form goes pear-shaped, we know we can lay the selections we're currently making turn out a profit! For this reason I'm not too bothered by the fact that the systems are showing a loss.

Have a good one,

Josh.

P.S. I've mentioned this before in previous posts, but I may have made some miscalculations. If you think you notice any, please let me know. Thanks.

Hello and welcome!

Here are the system bets for the week...

Bookie Buster:

There are two bets, I'm happy to include in an accumulator. Betfair have an accumulator section for games in the same division. This week, they offer the best odds available (even without commission). For this reason, I'll be testing using their odds.

The bets I'm happy to include are...

Chelsea to beat Sheff. Utd

Portsmouth to beat Reading

Portsmouth are good at home and better than Reading, overall, in my opinion. After a heavy loss to Arsenal, Reading's confience can't be soaring and they might just be having doubts over their ability.

 Chelsea should just prove far too strong for Sheff. Utd who will probably put up a good fight.

On betfair I can get odds of 2.70. If I was being fussy I might put an order in for 2.75 and hope it gets matched at better odds, but the prices for this event have gone up and down like a yo-yo. It's not worth risking a good bet, in my opinion.

I waited last week before posting my selections last week and the odds dropped significantly.

The Sequence System:

I make it that the following four teams have won their last three matches, at least.

*Arsenal*
*Bolton*

*Manchester United*

Tottenham

Chelsea

Arsenal play Everton. Everton can be backed at odds of 9.8 or at 3.24 on the double chance.

Bolton and Man. Utd, both play each other, so the bets will cancel each other out.

Tottenham are away to Watford. Watford can be backed at odds of 4. or at 1.83, on the double chance.

Chelsea travel to Brammel lane. Sheff. United are 16.0 to win the game or 4.04 to either win or draw.

Teams with stars around them indicate that the team has won its last three Premiership matches AND it's last three matches (which could have been in a Europe or a domestic cup). Teams without those stars, have simply won their last three games in all competitions.

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I hope everthing is clear. If not, send me a comment and I'll try to help.

I've decided to add a little spice to my betting life. I'm going to be attempting a steady drip. It'll only be with £10 and purely for entertainment purposes. Anyone interested in seeing how can do so by clicking here. Maybe you might like to join in the fun and do exactly the same. We could have a bit of friendly rivalry and see who can last the longest!

Oh, almost forgot my tip of the weekend. I I'll have to make my tip of the weekend Portsmouth. The odds just look too juicy for me not to have a slice of the cake.

Hope you all make a profit this weekend!

Have a good one,

Josh.

P.S. Com'on you Spurs!!!

Hello and welcome!

I hoped on posting this yesterdat, but got busy. Here the are system results after week 3...

Bookie Buster:

For the first time, so far the accumulator won. The odds combined to 4.58, but, at one point, odds were available of 5.225 (I'll have to be quicker next time!). In a way I see it as money thrown away, but it would have been much worse to have had this happen once we get into a winning run when stakes increase.

The figures for this system are as follows...

Bets Made: 3

Bets Won: 1

Strike Rate: 33.3%

Average Odds: 4.91

Total Staked: 30

Total Returned: 40.58

Total Banked: 0

Profit/Loss: 10.58

I don't think it's by chance that the first win came when I made sure I found value bets. Hopefully, I'll be able to invest the same amount of time for the next bet, but with my schedule, it's looking iffy. A win next week will plant us firmly in profit...

The Sequence System:

Another bad week, but that's definately a good thing. If opposing teams in form goes pear-shaped, we know we can lay the selections I'm currently backing to make a profit! By backing the single 'win' bet, we achieve the following results...

Bets Made: 10

Bets Won: 1

Strike Rate: 10.0%

Average Odds. 6.083

Total Staked: 100

Total Returned: 40

Profit/Loss: -60

By backing the teams on the 'double chance' bet, we get results that look like...

Bets Made: 10

Bets Won: 3

Strike Rate: 30%

Average Odds: 3.83

Total Staked: 100

Total Returned: 61.8 

Profit/Loss: -38.2

During one of the first posts in the blog, a guy commented that he thought it would be better to back teams in form rather than oppose them. Kudos to you, mate! You seem to be spot on - although it is early days at the moment.

As I wrote earlier, if opposing teams in form goes pear-shaped, we know we can lay the selections we're currently making turn out a profit!

Have a good one,

Josh.

P.S. I've mentioned this before in previous posts, but I may have made some miscalculations. If you think you notice any, please let me know. Thanks.

Hello and welcome!

Here are the system bets for the week...

Bookie Buster:

There are two bets, I'm happy to include in an accumulator. I've put some time in this week and think they both represent good value. While this doesn't mean this weekends accumulator will win, it puts the odds in our favour. To make things 100% fair and accurate, I've used the same bookmaker for all bets. After all, it's not possible to mix-and-match with different bookmakers, wehn it comes to accumulators. This weekend, it turns out, that Bet365 offer the best odds. For this reason, I'll be testing using their odds.

The bets I'm happy to include are...

Man. Utd to beat Liverpool @ 1.91

Middlesborough to beat Newcastle @ 2.40

You never know what Middlesborough will turn up, but they have a solid squad and it looks like Woodgate's coming back. Newcastle's defence is shaky and that's probably the deciding factor for me.

As for Man. Utd. They are on form, while Liverpool have ben dropping too many points since the start of the season. Man. Utd caught Arsenal on a bad day and I'm willing to pass the Reading game as a one-off against an underrated side who were 'up for it'.

Together these odds combine to give odds of 4.58.

Maybe I should post these bets up earlier because only a few days ago Man.Utd were priced 2.09 and Middlesbrough 2.50. Anyone who read yesterday's post will know how much of a difference this makes and this is especially true when you're dealing with accumulators.

The Sequence System:

I make it that the following four teams have won their last three matches, at least.

*Arsenal*
*Bolton*

Manchester United

Teams with stars around them indicate that the team has won its last three Premiership matches AND it's last three matches (which could have been in a Europe or a domestic cup). Teams without those stars, have simply won their last three games in all competitions.

I think I said I'd be tracking both backing the opposition side 'to win' and laying the team 'on a roll' to win. Instead of laying them, I'll now be backing the other team under double chance conditions, covering the draw, too (which is essentially the same as laying, only a little more simplistic).

'Sequence System' week 3 bets will be ...

Reading. They play Arsenal and can be backed to win at odds of 6.0. Their double chance odds are 2.38.

Blackburn. They are 2.38 to win the game and can be backed at 1.36 under double chance conditions.

Liverpool. 'the Kop' will be backed to win at odds of 4.5 and 1.90 on the double chance.

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I hope everthing is clear. If not, send me a comment and I'll try to help.

For anyone who's interested I quite fancy Charlton to beat Watford. I also think Fulham might get something at Villa Park. Finally, the way Pompey have been playing, I might have a small nibble on them to get something at Stamford Bridge.

Hope you all make a profit this weekend!

Have a good one,

Josh.