Let Me Set The Record Straight!
Hello and welcome,
The concept of value gets so over-complicated in gambling circles. Too many times I've seen people make it out to be some mystical concept that will take years to grasp. I'm writing to tell you all that that's all tosh as far as I'm concerned. I'm writng to set the record straight... to set it straight once and for all.
Value can be defined as any bet where the odds suggest a lower liklihood of something occuring, than the actual chance of the event occuring. I recommend you read that sentence again.
To convert a bookmakers odds into a figure that represents the probability the odds offer, we perform the following calculation - 1 / Bookie Odds.
So for example, if a bookmaker offers odds of 5.00 we can divide 1 by 5 to work out the probability of the event occuring in relation to the bookmaker's odds. In this case, we'd get the answer .20, which is the same as 20%.
If the bookmaker offered odds of 3.00, it would represent a probability of .333 or 33.3%.
If the bookmaker offered odds of 1.36, it would represent a probability of .735 or 73.5%.
If we toss a coin, we know there is a 50% liklihood of the coin landing on heads and 50% chance of the coin landing on tails. This means the correct odds for a coin landing on either side should be 2.00 ( 1 divided by 2 is .50 or 50%). Most of the time, bookies offer odds that represent a higher chance of a bet winning, than it actually should be. For example, instead of offering odds of 2.00, the bookies will normally offer odds of 1.95. This is, generally, how they make their money in the long run. These odds represent a probability of 51.3%. This is above the actually probability that odds should reflect, hence you would lose money if you continued to bet at these odds.
However, sometimes bookies get the odds wrong. Instead offering odds of 2.00 or lower, they could offer odds of 2.05. Odds of 2.05, suggest a 48.8% chance of the coin landing on heads or tails and, because this is less than the true odds of 50.0%, we would definately make money, in the long run, if we continued to make bets at those odds. These are value bets.
Now a coin toss can be quantified. We know there are two possible outcomes and we know they are both as likely to occur as each other. For this reason, it's impossible to profit from games like roulette, in the long run. The casinos know how often an event will happen and they offer odds that will guarantee the casino will win the the long run.
Sporting events can't be quantified. No one knows, for sure, how often West Ham will beat Chesterfield ( although judging from last night, it would appear not often). We can only guess. If we can learn to spot the times when bookmakers get the odds wrong and back them, we will surely make a profit in the long run.
The hard part is having accurate predictions. You have to know your sport, you have to do your homework and preferably, you should have statistics to help quantify the event as much as possible. This is what I did for an hour, last week when picking the bets for the 'Bookie Buster' system and it paid dividends. The other weeks I barely spent 5 minutes and they both lost.
Unfortunately, it's not a skill that can be learned overnight. Very rarely do people show a natural aptitude to pick winners with ease. However, you will slowly get better over time if you keep plugging away.
If you leave this blog post with anything, let it be this. Do not make a bet unless you are sure the odds are higher than they should be.
Have a good one,
Josh.
P.S. If there are any of you who are convinced you can find value bets on a consistent basis, please get in touch. I have a question for you.