Systems Testing Week 3
Hello and welcome!
Here are the system bets for the week...
Bookie Buster:
There are two bets, I'm happy to include in an accumulator. I've put some time in this week and think they both represent good value. While this doesn't mean this weekends accumulator will win, it puts the odds in our favour. To make things 100% fair and accurate, I've used the same bookmaker for all bets. After all, it's not possible to mix-and-match with different bookmakers, wehn it comes to accumulators. This weekend, it turns out, that Bet365 offer the best odds. For this reason, I'll be testing using their odds.
The bets I'm happy to include are...
Man. Utd to beat Liverpool @ 1.91
Middlesborough to beat Newcastle @ 2.40
You never know what Middlesborough will turn up, but they have a solid squad and it looks like Woodgate's coming back. Newcastle's defence is shaky and that's probably the deciding factor for me.
As for Man. Utd. They are on form, while Liverpool have ben dropping too many points since the start of the season. Man. Utd caught Arsenal on a bad day and I'm willing to pass the Reading game as a one-off against an underrated side who were 'up for it'.
Together these odds combine to give odds of 4.58.
Maybe I should post these bets up earlier because only a few days ago Man.Utd were priced 2.09 and Middlesbrough 2.50. Anyone who read yesterday's post will know how much of a difference this makes and this is especially true when you're dealing with accumulators.
The Sequence System:
I make it that the following four teams have won their last three matches, at least.
*Arsenal*
*Bolton*
Manchester United
Teams with stars around them indicate that the team has won its last three Premiership matches AND it's last three matches (which could have been in a Europe or a domestic cup). Teams without those stars, have simply won their last three games in all competitions.
I think I said I'd be tracking both backing the opposition side 'to win' and laying the team 'on a roll' to win. Instead of laying them, I'll now be backing the other team under double chance conditions, covering the draw, too (which is essentially the same as laying, only a little more simplistic).
'Sequence System' week 3 bets will be ...
Reading. They play Arsenal and can be backed to win at odds of 6.0. Their double chance odds are 2.38.
Blackburn. They are 2.38 to win the game and can be backed at 1.36 under double chance conditions.
Liverpool. 'the Kop' will be backed to win at odds of 4.5 and 1.90 on the double chance.
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I hope everthing is clear. If not, send me a comment and I'll try to help.
For anyone who's interested I quite fancy Charlton to beat Watford. I also think Fulham might get something at Villa Park. Finally, the way Pompey have been playing, I might have a small nibble on them to get something at Stamford Bridge.
Hope you all make a profit this weekend!
Have a good one,
Josh.