2007-Jul-21
Looking Ahead to the 2007/08 Football Season
Football is my forte. I have made more money from football than any other sport, and it is for this reason that I will start off with betting rule #1 for next season:
1. Know Your Sport
You can generally spot a mug punter a mile off. They bet on anything and everything, without necessarily having the prerequisite knowledge to profit from what they are betting on. The bookie shop is full of them - have a bet on every race, lose more than they win, etc. You know the types. Don't be one of them. If you want to make money from betting on ANY sport, you have to KNOW what it is you are betting on and be able to identify a value bet, and just as importantly a false favourite.
The bookie generally wins because he knows the sport. These guys hire whole teams of people who spend hours analyzing stats, devising probabilities, etc - they make money because they do their homework. As a punter you generally have to be doing the same if you are to succeed. I spend on average 2-3 hours analyzing a football match, looking at it from every aspect, identifying strengths and weaknesses of each time, and devising a strategy upon which to profit from a multitude of outcomes. Any successful trader will tell you the same - knowing your sport is the key element to making money betting and trading on Betfair.
A key resource for developing a bookies approach to betting can be found here. This is one of the best manuals I have read for a long time and recommend you take a look.
2. Stake Management
It is pointless having a good system if you are unable to profit from it. Stake management is one if the key areas to focus on, regardless of whether you are trading or betting. Without proper money management you will quickly find that overstaking and understaking will eventually take hold and you will generally find yourself losing more and having to stake more to win it back. Structured betting can be easily managed to ensure that you only stake or risk a set amount, and with proper analysis you will quickly be able to determine what is the best betting approach for you on any type of bet or trade.
I came across a nice bit of software recently that covers every aspect of stake management, and it also allows you to not only monitor your existing staking, but also advises you of the optimum stake for your next bet, as well as providing comparison charts for other staking methods to allow you to see what position you would be in if you had of used one of the others. You can read more about it here - in fact, you can download a fully functional free trial to see the value of this type of software for yourself immediately.
3. Have the Right Tools for the Job
If you were a plumber it would be pointless turning up with an electricians kit to unblock a drain, am I right? Well the same applies to betting. Another one of the key aspects of successful betting is having the right tools at the right time. Ask any bookie to go through the odds and percentages off the top of his head and he will do so with minute accuracy. Now I am not saying you have to memorise these yourself, but having the tools to convert odds, calculate back and lay stakes, etc, at your fingertips is essential. The most important tool I consider every bettor/trader on betfair should possess is: Arb Cruncher. This software has made me alot of money - it calculates opening and closing positions and stakes, allows me to perform every calculation I could ever possibly require, and it sits quietly on my desktop and flashes up in an instant when called upon. Priceless!
4. When and When NOT to Rely on Betting Systems
There are countless betting systems available at present, for both horse racing, football betting and exchange trading. And each one has their merits, BUT also have their downfalls. No system is infallible, so it is essential that before you plough in with your hardearned, paper trade first. Get use to the way the system works and analyze the results and profit potential thoroughly to ascertain whether or not it is going to be right for you.
I personally do not use betting systems very often, but I do think that the good ones provide a valuable insight into betting itself and can form the basis of an 'education' to the uninitiated. I have put together a number of football betting systems on my system site which you can have a look at if you are looking to explore this subject further.
5. Tipsters - Betting Salvation or Lurking Shark!
A good tipster is priceless, especially if you can find one with a proven track record. I have studied the performance of many tipsters due to the fact that I have been actively involved in the betting industry for MANY years both as an editor and also as a punter. I have to say that not all tipsters are bad, there are some good ones. The key is finding them. But on the other hand, it doesn't take any great amount of brain matter to set up as a tipster and there are a large number of tipster services designed to purely make money from unsuspecting punters. If you have to use a tipster then do your homework first.
Tipsters are ideal if you are not wanting to take the time to analyze betting opportunities. If you are looking for someone to do the 'donkey work' for you, then this is route to take. A good tipster is worth their weight in gold.
So to summarize: Know your sport, manage your stakes, use betting systems to educate yourself, and find a good tipster if you don't have the time to do your own analysis.
*** As you know, I have been operating the BFBookie Tipster Service for a few months now (and many of the die-hard followers of my blog are members). It was initially open to just 20 members and membership was full within hours. With no sign of anyone quiting I have decided to increase the membership level by 10 via a 'Season Membership' offer. This allows you the opportunity to access the members area, gain access to all the tips and trading advice each day, etc for the whole of the 2007/2008 football betting season without any ongoing cost.
This is a very LIMITED offer and I expect it to fill up within days, so if have followed my advice, think I am worth a punt, and are looking for a quick and easy way to make money from Betfair without having to do the donkey work yourself, then this could be the opportunity you are looking for. In which case, get in quick! As soon as the ten places are filled the membership button will disappear as always.
I / We had a phenomenal season last year and I fully expect this coming season to be even more profitable for both myself and those members with the foresight to have followed me through and joined as members themselves.