Football Trader

With the start of the football season very close, I have been doing some research on betting and trading strategies that can be applied successfully to Betfair. I call it my 'sharpening the mind' preparation period where I get mentally fit. I think that every pro gambler needs to take time away from betting ocassionally and basically do the homework every once and while otherwise they run the risk of becoming a bit bored and stale.

No chance of that happening with me. Mental fitness is paramount in my mind as the new football season approaches, and I have already lined up what will hopefully be some cracking trades early in the season in order to get us off to a good winning start.

Part of my mental preparation is to look at other betting opportunities outside of what I specialise in, in order to see if I can spot any strategies or applications that can be adapted to my own betting toolbox. And during the course of this exercise I decided to take a good look at Betfair Exchange Games.

Actually, it was prompted by an email I received telling me that the hottest thing since the kettle has just become available and that I should check it out - System Black Box for Betfair Games.

Now you probably already know that there are not alot of systems for Betfair Games, not many that work anyway, but it seems that someone has finally cracked the code so to speak with this new System Black Box for Betfair Games system.

The application of the system is actually very simple, but the results were quite mind-boggling the first day I used it. I love playing around with 'scenarios' and with this system I could do just that. 'What If's...' I call them - challenges me mentally. But in doing so I found that I was winning money!

It takes either a very BOLD or very STUPID person to provide a betting system that guarantees NO losing days... smells of a scam I thought. But once I read through the system, understood the principles, and then applied them, I could see immediately how the claim could be justified.

Stake levels are minimum with this, so it did not take a lot of money to work with, which was good because as a newbie to Betfair Games myself I needed to be sure that my bank wouldn't be swallowed up within just a few bets. With stakes of just £5-10 I was able to turn a profit of £60 within just an hour or 2. Doesn't sound much, but when you consider that Betfair Games operates 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, that figure could soon build to something quite phenomenal over a relatively short period of time.

System Black Box for Betfair Games is NOT a get rich quick scheme - it is designed to provide regular profitable wins that build the bank consistently. And for a lot of people this would be an ideal place to start.

If you are bored waiting for the footie season to start, then take a look at System Black Box for Betfair Games - I am sure you will find it and interesting and worthwhile exercise.

*** On another note, I have only FIVE PLACES left for the season membership offer. If you have not secured yours, then get in quick. We are going to make some SERIOUS cash and I want you to be a part of it. I appreciate that the cost of membership is high, but I have put in place a payment option and a 'members pot' that I hope will demonstrate my desire to make this one of the most successful and profitable betting services you have ever participated it. My reputation for winners is demonstrated in the fact that since DAY ONE of the launch of www.bfbookie.com I have NOT had one member cancel!

*** On one other note, one of my betting articles was published on a very well known betting site the other day... I am CHUFFED to bits.

With just a few weeks to go until the official start of the football season now is a good time to start reflecting on strategies and approaches to make money from the abundance of betting opportunities ahead. So with this in mind I thought I would share a few thoughts with you regarding how to turn 'opportunity' into 'profit'.

Football is my forte. I have made more money from football than any other sport, and it is for this reason that I will start off with betting rule #1 for next season:

1. Know Your Sport
You can generally spot a mug punter a mile off. They bet on anything and everything, without necessarily having the prerequisite knowledge to profit from what they are betting on. The bookie shop is full of them - have a bet on every race, lose more than they win, etc. You know the types. Don't be one of them. If you want to make money from betting on ANY sport, you have to KNOW what it is you are betting on and be able to identify a value bet, and just as importantly a false favourite.

The bookie generally wins because he knows the sport. These guys hire whole teams of people who spend hours analyzing stats, devising probabilities, etc - they make money because they do their homework. As a punter you generally have to be doing the same if you are to succeed. I spend on average 2-3 hours analyzing a football match, looking at it from every aspect, identifying strengths and weaknesses of each time, and devising a strategy upon which to profit from a multitude of outcomes. Any successful trader will tell you the same - knowing your sport is the key element to making money betting and trading on Betfair.

A key resource for developing a bookies approach to betting can be found here. This is one of the best manuals I have read for a long time and recommend you take a look.

2. Stake Management
It is pointless having a good system if you are unable to profit from it. Stake management is one if the key areas to focus on, regardless of whether you are trading or betting. Without proper money management you will quickly find that overstaking and understaking will eventually take hold and you will generally find yourself losing more and having to stake more to win it back. Structured betting can be easily managed to ensure that you only stake or risk a set amount, and with proper analysis you will quickly be able to determine what is the best betting approach for you on any type of bet or trade.

I came across a nice bit of software recently that covers every aspect of stake management, and it also allows you to not only monitor your existing staking, but also advises you of the optimum stake for your next bet, as well as providing comparison charts for other staking methods to allow you to see what position you would be in if you had of used one of the others. You can read more about it here - in fact, you can download a fully functional free trial to see the value of this type of software for yourself immediately.

3. Have the Right Tools for the Job
If you were a plumber it would be pointless turning up with an electricians kit to unblock a drain, am I right? Well the same applies to betting. Another one of the key aspects of successful betting is having the right tools at the right time. Ask any bookie to go through the odds and percentages off the top of his head and he will do so with minute accuracy. Now I am not saying you have to memorise these yourself, but having the tools to convert odds, calculate back and lay stakes, etc, at your fingertips is essential. The most important tool I consider every bettor/trader on betfair should possess is: Arb Cruncher. This software has made me alot of money - it calculates opening and closing positions and stakes, allows me to perform every calculation I could ever possibly require, and it sits quietly on my desktop and flashes up in an instant when called upon. Priceless!

4. When and When NOT to Rely on Betting Systems
There are countless betting systems available at present, for both horse racing, football betting and exchange trading. And each one has their merits, BUT also have their downfalls. No system is infallible, so it is essential that before you plough in with your hardearned, paper trade first. Get use to the way the system works and analyze the results and profit potential thoroughly to ascertain whether or not it is going to be right for you.

I personally do not use betting systems very often, but I do think that the good ones provide a valuable insight into betting itself and can form the basis of an 'education' to the uninitiated. I have put together a number of football betting systems on my system site which you can have a look at if you are looking to explore this subject further.

5. Tipsters - Betting Salvation or Lurking Shark!
A good tipster is priceless, especially if you can find one with a proven track record. I have studied the performance of many tipsters due to the fact that I have been actively involved in the betting industry for MANY years both as an editor and also as a punter. I have to say that not all tipsters are bad, there are some good ones. The key is finding them. But on the other hand, it doesn't take any great amount of brain matter to set up as a tipster and there are a large number of tipster services designed to purely make money from unsuspecting punters. If you have to use a tipster then do your homework first.

Tipsters are ideal if you are not wanting to take the time to analyze betting opportunities. If you are looking for someone to do the 'donkey work' for you, then this is route to take. A good tipster is worth their weight in gold.

So to summarize: Know your sport, manage your stakes, use betting systems to educate yourself, and find a good tipster if you don't have the time to do your own analysis.

*** As you know, I have been operating the BFBookie Tipster Service for a few months now (and many of the die-hard followers of my blog are members). It was initially open to just 20 members and membership was full within hours. With no sign of anyone quiting I have decided to increase the membership level by 10 via a 'Season Membership' offer. This allows you the opportunity to access the members area, gain access to all the tips and trading advice each day, etc for the whole of the 2007/2008 football betting season without any ongoing cost.

This is a very LIMITED offer and I expect it to fill up within days, so if have followed my advice, think I am worth a punt, and are looking for a quick and easy way to make money from Betfair without having to do the donkey work yourself, then this could be the opportunity you are looking for. In which case, get in quick! As soon as the ten places are filled the membership button will disappear as always.

I / We had a phenomenal season last year and I fully expect this coming season to be even more profitable for both myself and those members with the foresight to have followed me through and joined as members themselves.

Today is the start of the July Festival at Newmarket, and as always BFBookie has been hard at work looking for big price winners for members - but today I thought I would make a change and post a few of them for followers of the blog (as I am feeling a bit guilty for not posting for a while!).

There are selections for most races today, and at the odds I am hoping we can take a nice chunk out of Betfair.

At the prices you should be looking to go both win and place today, unless the odds in the place market are unreasonably low. And DON'T trade these selections - the prices may often move in, and I expect that some of them will, which is purely a sign that we are on the right track. Conversely, if the price moves out don't panic, the homework has been done and at the odds we don't need a huge number of winners to make some good money today.

Here goes,

1.30

Look So
Medley
Fealeview Lady

********* Medley 2nd 9/1 SP

2.00
Rainbow Mirage
Express Wish
Solid Rock

******** NOTHING

2.35

LAY Youresothrilling (Win and Place)
Thought Is Free
Nahood
Aide Memoir

******* Thought we had the lay on this right up to the line, but unfortunately it won. Nothing returned on this one.

3.10
LAY Nannina (Win and Place)
Irridescence
Bahia Breeze

******** Good short-price lay here, both win and place was a winner for us. Irridecence was 2nd, so place return there as well.

3.45
Turbo Linn
Scatina
Under the Rainbow

******* SHAME ON YOU IF YOU DOUBTED THE BFBOOKIE! Nice Winner Here for You with Turbo Linn, and the 2nd with Under the Rainbow (If you did the forecast also then you were QUIDS IN). SP for Turbo Lin was 9's+ on Betfair and it went as low as about 7.4'ish about 5-10 mins from off.

4.20
Upton Grey
Talayeb
Boomtown

********* Nothing here, but the odds on these three selections were generally huge so you only needed very small stakes here to get a massive return if an upset did eventuate.

4.55
LAY Jack Junior (Win and Place)
Urban Spirit
Sugar Ray
Silver Suitor

********* WINNER! Urban Spirit (SP 8/1) does the business for us here. Pity about the late non-runner, but that actually worked in our favour as it reduced the price of Jack Junior to virtually odds on when the adjustment was made. We had the winner and the 3rd, and layed the favourite! WHAT A RESULT! BFBOOKIE STRIKES AGAIN! THE BETFAIR CASH BUCKET IS LOOKING GOOD!

5.30
Networker
Ektimaal
Tommy Toogood

******* Networker hit the frame in 4th here, so all in all not a bad day at all. I am in profit, and hopefully you are also. We adopted a 'value' approach today, and while you may have found yourself questioning some of the logic behind my selections for you today, I am certain you won't be complaining if you followed them. -- Until next time, happy punting.

Don't get hugely carried away with stakes - these are predominantly big price selections with a few lays thrown in for good measure. Allocate a set amount per race to bet with, and adjust stakes to achieve a nice spread across the selections. If it is a 'favourites' day we are beat, but hopefully it won't be and with the place aspect of each bet at the odds we should come out on top for the day.

Good Luck,

BFBookie - Visit the BFBookie Website

I have just finished putting up the soccer predictions for the month of May. This takes us through to the end of the season. I have only done the Premiership, as these are the matches that concern us most.

You can find the predictions here.

Soccer predictions are now online at www.betortrade.com - I have updated all predictions and added them for fixtures up until the end of this month. Grab them now. There are some juicy trading opportunities over the next couple of days.

Betfair Bookie subscribers cleaned up yet again with the Sunderland vs Burnley game, as did you hopefully if you followed the predictions for this match and looked for trading opportunities to develop, which they duly did.

To their credit, Burnley put up a good show - the score finishing Sunderland 3, Burnley 2. This sort of scoreline provides countless opportunity to profit. I backed and layed right through the match myself, generating a very healthy profit (and from the emails I received from Betfair Bookie members, so did they!).

Check back tomorrow as I may well do a match analysis for the Arsenal vs Fulham match if I get the time.

Until next time...

Happy Trading

Good result on  Burnley vs West Bromwich match last night! My advice to you regarding opening positions was 'spot on'. BUT there were also MULTIPLE opportunities throughout the match to add even more profit due to the number of goals scored. It was flip-flopping odds all round. I can tell you that I personally pocketed over £1,000 from trading this match (and I am sure the Betfair Bookie) members won't be cancelling their subscriptions for a while!).

This is the beauty of football trading - if you can structure your opening positions around the most probable 2 outcomes (odds permitting) then you are setting yourself up for profit time and time again. But not only that, you are also allowing yourself the opportunity to increase that profit throughout the course of the match.

I was lucky enough to be sent a review copy of  The Football Trading System last week and have been reading through it (yep, even experienced traders never stop looking for new ideas and strategies to further enhance their profits!) and I found it to be brilliant. Very practical - and this guy really knows his stuff!

The webpage for this football trading system is a bit 'basic', but that hides the gem of a system that lay behind it. Followers of this system have no complaints! So if you were NOT fortunate enough to have secured a place with me at Betfair Bookie, take a look at The Football Trading System in the meantime. It could possibly be the next best thing... to me that is!

Until Next Time...

Happy Trading!

Just a quick note to let you know the free soccer predictions are back up at www.betortrade.com - my apologies for the delay in updating these. I have put the English Championship League predictions up today for the remainder of this month (there is a match tonight you might be interested in taking a look at as it suggests either a home win or a draw as the most likely outcome - a good starting point for your opening trading position!), and hope to have all the other leagues up throughout this week that will cover you through until the end of the month on those also, so check back regularly for updates.

The soccer predictions can be accessed directly by clicking here. There is also the latest odds available for all the matches on any given day (saves time going to Betfair, etc when you just want to take a quick look - you might want to bookmark this page, I use it alot!).

I have had a few emails literally 'begging' me to start the match analysis up again on the blog. With membership to www.bfbookie.com full now, I may post one or two match analysis here a week, probably on a Saturday (time permitting). The best way to get them daily (and make a 'bucket-load' of money in the process!) is to actually join the Betfair Bookie service - but it is currently full, so if you want the chance to grab membership if and when one comes available then get on the mailing list (at the bottom of the page) and I will notify you when there is a vacancy. Be warned, first in, first joined!

Until Next Time...

Happy Trading!

I have had an overwhelming response from subscribers wanting to join my "Betfair Bookie" service and I regret to inform you that membership is now closed. However, I have started a waiting list for those who want to be notified when new positions become available, which can be accessed at www.bfbookie.com (bottom of the page).

A quick update on the performance of BF Bookie - Over the last week I have advised 7 winning trades out of 8 (1 of which we only sustained a very small loss). There have been 5 successful lay bets out of 5 advised (2 at odds on prices!), and there have been 9 horse racing selections, 6 of which won at prices over 11/2, 2 placed at prices over 10/1 and 1 Lost. So I dear say the existing members are very happy punters!!!

I may in the future increase the membership levels, so if you are looking for a source of regular winning bets, lays and trades on a variety of sports, then add your name to the list and I will advise you immediately when there are vacancies available.

Also, the Bet or Trade Newsletter is now fully up and running - so if you have not subscribed to that yet, positions are still available. Receive free betting tips, free betting systems and software, reviews etc on  a regular basis. There is a nice 'bonus' for subscribers at present (existing subscribers already know about it, and new subscribers will receive notification when I mailout next).

Until Next Time...

Happy Trading!

The Grand National can never be considered a serious betting opportunity, but it is always nice to have a bit of a punt on the outcome - holding your breath at each fence hoping your selection makes it across, let alone finishes the race!

However, I have spent a bit of time on this race to try and narrow the field down to just a few live contenders that I think could run well at the odds.

Here are the selections:

Numbersixvalverde (currently available at 18.5 on Betfair)
This is my MAIN PICK to win the race.

I am also going to cover 4 more horses in the race at very good odds win and place on Betfair:

Liberthine (currently available at 65 on Betfair)
Longshanks (currently available at 28 on Betfair)
McKelvey (currently available at 17 on Betfair)
Billyvoddan (currently available at 21 on Betfair)

I would suggest dutch betting these as the odds make this the best staking approach.

Don't go mad with stakes - this is not a race that can be considered a serious betting proposition due to its very nature - so spread a point or 2 across the above, sit back and enjoy the race. With 5 running for us hopefully we will get in the frame and at the very least break even!

*** Spaces are filling FAST for my new Betfair Bookie service, so if you are pondering whether or not to join I can tell you that there are only 6 places remaining!

Until Next Time...

Just a quick note to let you know I am back from my holiday and that normal service will resume from tomorrow. I have some juicy bets / trades lined up for us over the coming weeks and hope to suck some serious cash out of Betfair (to replenish my bank account - spent a fortune on holiday!).

I have now decided to post my tips the following way(s):

1. Newsletter Subscribers
Subscribe to my newsletter and you will receive free tips as and when I post them.

2. Premier Membership
I have now started a premier members tipping service at www.bfbookie.com where I am now accepting members (limited to just 20, so be quick as spaces are filling up fast!). For about £1.80 per day you will receive football betting and horse racing tips (back, lay and trades) on a very regular basis - and not just 'pie in the sky' stuff - winning tips that produce nice profits!.

Due to time constraints and family commitments I will not be posting here very often now - so check out my websites: www.betortrade.com and www.bfbookie.com for subscription and membership details.

Hopefully I have proven to you by now that I know the betting game, play hard, and more importantly play to WIN. If you want to make some nice cash over the coming season(s) then come and join me: www.bfbookie.com

Aston Villa 0 - Everton 1 after just 14 Minutes of Play! Green Screen - How Does He Do It?  I am off on my holiday tomorrow, so took the money and ran. Who cares what the result is? If you are not being greedy you have taken the 7's (going on 8's) about Aston Villa at this point and have a lovely green screen staring you in the face.

We have enjoyed winner, after winner lately - long may it continue! And you think the football trades are good, wait until I send you the horse racing back and lay tips after my holiday! If you haven't already - subscribe now (one the magic number of subscribers is reached I am closing the doors!). Subscription is FREE!

See you all again after the 9th of April! I will be thinking about you all while sunning myself in Tenerife, poolside, FIRST CLASS, lavishly spending the winnings from the footie season to date! Such is the life of a FOOTBALL TRADER!

This will be the final match analysis until after the 9th of April (as I am on holiday) so let's make the most of it and go out with a bang! Done the research on this one and am confident we can capitalize on the strengths of both teams to produce some nice trading profits.

I like Aston Villa as a team, I think they are a 'gutsy' bunch who know how to defend well. Their weakness is definitely upfront, where they lack the firepower to capitalize on opportunities. Everton on the other hand have the firepower upfront, but have less defence capability.

What does this mean for us? Well I think that Aston Villa should not be underestimated in this match - they can hold their ground!

I do not expect alot of goals in this game. I think it will be a low scoring affair, with Everton probably scoring first. The draw is probably the most likely outcome in this match, or an outright Everton win. I do not think Aston Villa will win, but the chances of a draw are very definitely there.

Opening Position - Cover Everton and the Draw. If we establish a position covering these two initially and then look to go green on Aston Villa as soon as possible, I think this can work well for us. The odds are not bad for this game, so there is plenty of room for profit.

If Aston Villa score first, and the odds fall low enough, then lay them. Only if they do so in the first 60 minutes of the game, otherwise just look to go green on them during the course of the match.

---------------------------

Now, for some banter....

You all know that I love my football (actually, it is the money making potential I love, the game is just the instrument!). BUT, I also love my HORSES as well! And with the flat season here I think it is time to seriously spread our wings and fly towards more profits by backing and laying horses!

Because there are so many races everyday, I tend to work with smallish stakes and spread my bets - I will be giving you value price each-way back selections (as big as 100/1), oppose-a-shortie lay selections (I love laying even money favs!), and some juicy patent bets all thrown over the course of the season. There will be bets for you most days -  Expect BIG Profits!

Now here's the catch - I am only going to be sending my horse racing selections to my newsletter subscribers - so if you want to make some SERIOUS money from horse racing then you should get subscribed to my newsletter asap.

Horse Racing Tips start immediately after I return from Holiday - I made ALOT OF MONEY last season from horse racing and I expect to make even more... so if you want to cash in on the horses this year then you know what you gotta do: Subscribe!

You will find the newsletter subscription box on my website - No subscribe, no tips!

Until Next Time...

Happy Trading!

Nice result on the Tottenham vs Reading match this afternoon. The scoreline was 1 of the 3 I predicted - so we yet again have added to our betting bank. If you have been following my trades/betting advice then you know by now I do NOT like losing - in fact, I downright refuse to tolerate losing runs of any quantity. Such is the beauty of trading - losing runs are few and far between once you know how to get in and out for profit; just the way I like it!

Recently I had the developer of Betting On Soccer Strategy contact me and ask me to take this software for 'a spin' to see if I could get on with it - so today I thought I would use it and see how it went - you know it is not bad at all!

Predicting correct scores can be very profitable, and the BOSS is ideal software to use if you have done your homework, and are fairly sure of the winning outcome, but want to cover a few more scorelines just in case. In fact, the Betting on Soccer Strategy software is an ideal tool if you want to make money from football betting full stop!

Take today's match for example: we knew that the scoreline would be relatively low, with Totts probably doing just enough to win, which they duly did. So being able to cover the most likely scores, and 1 or 2 besides, but structuring the bets to spread the return evenly ensured that we would have the outcome, regardless of the result. This is MY kind of betting, and this is where the BOSS really comes into play.

I like this software, and I think that if you are looking for consistent returns from football betting, and you like the high odds of the correct score market, then this software could be a potential goldmine to you.

Take a look - Better still, use the profits from today to grab yourself a copy!

Until Next Time...

Happy Trading!

With only 1 premiership game today, we are a bit limited in trading opportunities, but after taking a good look at the Tottenham vs Reading game I think I have a workable strategy for us here.

I really fancy Tottenham's chances of winning this match, but in the back of my mind is the 'resilience' factor that Reading have, almost a 'never say die' attitude. However, their match with Portsmouth a couple of weeks ago did little to inspire confidence.

I don't want to back Tottenham at the odds, and I don't want to lay them either as I think they are the most probable winners - so in this match I am going to focus on the correct score market to small stakes.

Back the following scores:
1-0
2-0
2-1

If you dutch-bet these with your stake (small stakes only!) that is probably the best approach. I feel that Tottenham are good for at least 1 goal at home, and probably 2. I don't see alot of goals in this match.

Reading have a good defence, and Tottenham have a good offence, so between the 2 of them I think that the above scoreline would be a fair and accurate probable outcome.

If I were to trade this match (which I am not going to, but you are welcome to), I would possibly look to lay Reading if they score first, then look for the equalizer and eventual winning goal from Tottenham, backing Reading at the enhanced odds once that occurs.

Probabilities for the Birmingham vs Coventry match are available on the website also.

Until Next Time...

Happy Trading!

I love it when these 2 teams come together - always ends up with a great match to watch and a good result generally. After looking at this match in-depth I think that we have a nice trading opportunity here today.

Liverpool have struggled a bit this season with a bit of a goal drought and Arsenal never seem to be able to take advantage of the opportunities they have to win, so this match should be an opportunity for both teams to really get their act together and hopefully score some goals for us.

I do not think this match will end in a draw - the probabilities suggest an outright winner, and at the odds we can start with an opening position on both Liverpool and Arsenal to win, while looking to get out of the liability on the draw as soon as possible to go green across the board.

Liverpool, playing at home, should be motivated enough to win this match and that is the outcome I am expecting.

I am also going to dabble in the correct score market on this one. A couple of quid on the following scores:
2-1
1-2

I will be very surprised if there are no goals in this match.

Probabilities for all the Premiership matches today are online now.

I am on holiday next week - So there will be no match analysis or probabilities between the 3rd of April to the 9th of April. Even football traders need a holiday!

Until Next Time...

Happy Trading!

If you took my advice this morning and layed England, then NOW is a good time to get out by backing them at the odds - take the money and run! Hopefully you also backed Andorra and the Draw as well - in which case lay them both off for a profit and walk away with a smile on your face.

The conspiracy theory is starting to look like not such a fantasy after all. I still think that England will win this match, but who cares! Green screen across the board, so now we can sit down and enjoy the second-half whilst cheering the winning team to victory (whichever it is), knowing that the daily fag money is back in the wallet (and more besides).

The crowds are booing the England players (never seen anything like it!) and I expect that that alone is good for at least 1 goal from them in the 2nd half. But judging by their performance in the first half, who knows what's in store?

Until next time...

Happy Trading!

My thoughts on the last England match against Israel were pretty spot-on I think. Not a good trading proposition as we never got to take advantage of any goals being scored, but the draw outcome was the result I thought would be the most likely, and it came to pass, so if you were on that outcome, well done!

Today we face a bit of a dilemma really, though the odds would suggest a clear cut victory is expected of England - currently trading at 1.04 on Betfair. BUT, remember, there is NO SUCH THING AS A SURE THING! If money was that easy to make, then every odds-on shot would be a winner and we would all be looking forward to the next 'shorty' to run or play so we can boost the bank balance even further.

Do I think England will win? Definitely! Do I think they want to win, sure! But before we lump on at 1.04 I want to run some things by you that will hopefully make you think before parting with your hard-earned.

Everyone thinks that England are definitely going to win, and I think they will. BUT, think about this... There is trouble in the camp. Rumour has it that Rooney has fallen out with the manager, the team are looking and playing totally demotivated, and this match could pan out in 1 of 2 ways.

1. England prove they can bounce back and win against a part-time side with a stomping goal-fest and everyone who backed them at 1.04 says 'money in the bank'.

2. It is 'pay-back time' for the players, who see this as an ideal opportunity to hit McClaren where it hurts and totally underperform to settle for a loss or a draw. I know this sounds crazy, but I actually think that since Steve McClaren took over as coach, that the team somehow resent him and actually want rid of him! What better way than to play badly - underperform, and really put his job in jeopardy, thus getting him sacked.

Now don't get me wrong, I am not suggesting a conspiracy theory is definitely happening here, but something is not right, we all know that for a fact. If paybacks are going to occur it will be in this game!

So, what do we do?

Well, I for one am NOT going to back England to win. However, I would lay them to lose at those odds to win a nice fortune for very small risk if things go pear-shaped and the conspiracy theory does actually come into play.

I would also maybe just have a couple of quid on Andorra and the Draw at the odds.

Personally, I think England will win, and the above is only my personal thought on the match. If they play even mediocre they should put this match to bed quickly - but I am a trader, and it is in my make-up to look at a match from all angles and try and read between the lines.

So, for very small stakes (under a tenner!) - lay England to lose, back Andorra and the Draw, sit down with a beer in front of the tele and watch the match - always looking for opportunities to trade out of any of the above positions.

This will be an entertaining evening, whatever the outcome. If we win a few quid all the better, if not, a tenner well spent for a huge upside if there is an upset!

Also, the soccer predictions have moved. Actually, my whole site has moved! It am now at the following address: www.betortrade.com - so update your bookmarks, etc.

Until Next Time....

Happy Trading!

Hype and emotion can be powerful market movers and the experienced trader knows this, but more importantly, he knows how to profit from it!

Bookies know the power of hype and emotion also. They know that this is a major market mover, and often set their prices with this firmly in mind. Never mind that England have performed below standard in their last 5 matches, bookies know they have to be favourite based on the fact the betting public want to see them as favourite and will be lumping on, regardless of whether the price is value or not!

I am often asked, ' Which team do I support'? My answer is always the same! The WINNING one.

So lets strip the hype and emotion away from the Israel vs England match this evening and look at the facts to see how we can profit from this match.

England are underachievers! They have so much talent, but very rarely do they perform to the level of that talent. I don't know what it is, but they almost certainly always just do enough to win, struggle for a draw, or go down in a blaze of glory as wannabes. This may sound harsh but it is the truth. Do they represent value at present - NO!

Israel on the other hand are a team that are not very spectacular themselves, but they do do well at home and should not be underestimated. I watched the Israel captain playing recently (as did Steve McClaren!) and I was not impressed - but that was in English football leagues, not in Israel internationals, and I think that we have to remember that patriotism is a powerful motivating force behind a player up against the likes of England today.

I am not going to lay England - I think they have the potential to win the match, more so than lose it.

I am not going to back Israel - I think they could sneak a goal or 2 in, but I am not suggesting this is definitely going to be the case.

NOPE, not even going to look for the draw (though I think this will be the most likely outcome).

Instead, I am going to look for the match to unfold like this:
England to score the first goal and the odds to plummet immediately upon doing so - at which time I am going to lay them then!

Israel to equalize on the fightback to force a draw, and if good enough to go on to score another to go one goal up. At which time I will be laying them also.

England to perform a late rally to equalize in the dying minutes if they are one goal down, at which time I will look to lay the draw!

Basically, we are looking to lay big at small odds for minimal liability - and to present a green screen to us at the end of the match.

If we can lay any 2 outcomes at very small odds, then we are quids up! This is NOT a big betting match for me, purely entertainment value - with a nice earner if it comes off for us the way I am thinking it will.

I may have it TOTALLY WRONG and England go for goal after goal, totally destroying the opposition, hope so for England's (and Steve McClaren's job) sake, but we have been here before where expectation has been high and performance has been low - so start the match risking nothing, and then look for trading opportunities while inplay on this one.

IF England lose or draw tonight - Steve McClaren's job is in serious question I think!

As Always...

Happy Trading and Enjoy the Match!

With no premiership games played today, we are left with the lower leagues and some internationals, so I thought today would be a good time to explore multiples betting on Betfair.

For a while now Betfair have offered punters the chance to place multiples bets on football, which is a great way of compounding odds, particularly on short-price teams to get a better return than you would get on singles bets.

The problem with multiple bets is that if 1 selection lets you down, then the whole bet is a loser generally. Bookies love these bets! They know the odds are firmly stacked in their favour and would line up all day to take your money for doubles, trebles and accumulators if you let them.

BUT now there is a way to fight back and actually WIN using multiples - I came across a very handy bit of software a couple of months ago called 'Merlin Results Radar' and have been using it to produce consistent profits on multiples, so I am not telling you about something here that I have not tried and tested myself!

The software itself allows you to structure 3 and 4 pick multiples - but with a TWIST. The odds are actually put in YOUR favour by using this software because of the way the lines are formed.

Now I didn't fully grasp how to get the most from this software initially, but the more I used it, the more I realised just how powerful it was. Why? Because the lines the software creates for you allows you to have up to 2 losing outcomes in your multiples and it can still have produced the WINNING line for you. Sounds a bit unbelievable, but it is true.

Now, if you use this with the soccer probabilities, you will soon discover that you can structure a line to cover the most probable outcomes using Merlin initially, and then it will automatically produce a number of other lines for you in case one (or even 2) of the outcomes in your initial selection fails to win.

But the best part of using this software is that the cost of producing winning lines is drastically reduced, thus increasing your profit when the winners roll in (and believe me, they do!).

The cost of this software is peanuts compared the profit potential. If you are interested in taking a look at the software then visit the 'Merlin Results Radar' website and read up on it - you will soon see just how much potential this software really has and how it can be of benefit to you.

If you decide to use it, then only use Betfair to place your bets. You will get better odds and a much greater return (the software manual assumes you are using a bookmaker). Merlin actually tells you what each winning line is worth to you also (works with decimal odds) so you know exactly what your winnings will be on each line!

Soccer predictions for today will be up late morning, so make sure you check those. I may do a match analysis on the Israel vs England match for later as well, so check back for that. I have some definite ideas about how we can profit from this match.

As Always...

Happy Trading!

Profitable result on the 2 FA cup matches tonight. I was right about the outright win for either Chelsea or Tottenham, green screen across the board on that one - easy money!

The other match between Man U and Middlesbrough, though full of action, was a bit of a deflator. The 1st goal was not scored until the final 15 mins or so of the match. I did lay Man U when they scored for minimal liability on the off chance that Middlesbrough might recover and equalize but it was a real 'chancer' bet at most and I was happy with the profits on the Totts vs Chelsea match!

Overall, a very good night for us. I hope that you followed the trading strategies on both matches as we were definitely 'quids up' on the night and the betting bank grows yet again!

Until Next Time...

Happy Trading!