Hi there,

well, the New Year is nearly here, and I thought I'd sum up the progress of the fund to date. I've also highlighted a tip which I think is a value bet. I've taken it already at small stakes, and would have gone in more heavily if I did not need to maintain discipline.

I've been fairly fortunate in my bets and the charitable fund is increasing in size. It started out at £340, and isn't doing too badly.

Betfair current account = £178.12

Betfair ante poste bets yet to be settled = £304.30

Assuming that my post-ante bets return neither a profit nor a loss, then the total account would stand at around £582, which is a significant increment on the £340 starting fund. As it is, my post - ante bets are currently doing well, so I expect these to make a profit, and therefore the total account to be worth more than these figures suggest.

I've had a profitable record since I began working on this in August, with only a few weeks having shown losses, mostly because I upped my stakes when Man Utd played Southend in the Carling Cup (and lost :-( ). I have thrown back some good bets, mostly because I've decided that I  like to develop a stronger "available to bet balance" (AKA betting 'current account'). I like the option of adding in new bets when good opportunities arise.

I've "thrown back" quite a lot of profitable bets to get back my current account balance, which is a bit foolish from the point of view of the charitable fund, but helped someone out over Xmas! I threw out most of the value on an almost certain winning bet on Reading avoiding relegation just because I had a bit of a "clear-out" on my old bets, and didn't want such a high proportion of fund money residing in the post-ante markets. Must have given someone some small cheer over Xmas! Partly I also do this because in the league post-ante markets I know I'm also playing against other small stakes folk rather than the big fish that occupy the in-running markets. I respect their opinions, and treat it like a game of pool where one's skills are enhanced by just playing the game, and going for the shots rather than just playing to win at all costs.

Most of my bets that are tied up are doing pretty well. Top performer for the fund currently is Christiano Ronaldo who I snapped up for a couple of quid at 170-1. He's been "on fire" recently, scoring a brace in 2 matches over the Xmas period. Mistakenly I laid him once he came in substantially in price, since I was down on the premiership goalscorers winners market, and was glad to be able to cover my expenses, though I still have some substantial "green" on Ronaldo winning.

If I were not currently playing with small stakes I would commit further funds towards him in the winners market for the premiership, and that is my tip for anyone who reads this over Xmas.

The clear facts are these:

Man Utd are winning games convincingly, often scoring three goals in a game. Ronaldo has been scoring frequently.

The current premiership scorers table shows Didier Drogba in front with 13 goals. Second is Ronaldo with 12 goals, just 1 goal behind. Drogba is 2.38 to win in this market, while Ronaldo is still available at 9.6. Chelsea are currently struggling as they are having to do a lot more defending at the moment. Man Utd are scoring freely.

Henry has some catching up to do, and still isn't playing after injury. Schevchenko is now out of the running. Bent is doing some good work with a struggling Charlton team, and I would expect him to improve his totals. Kanu is still hanging in there but is apparently suffering from burn out. Barry is there, but is unlikely to seriously challenge as a midfielder from a mid-table team. The Sheff Utd and Reading strikers are unlikely to last the course. Berbatov has been touted as an outsider by Racing and Football Outlook, but is still looking like a real outsider, and does not yet appear in the top 10. Rooney is still in the frame, but is happy to let his friend Ronaldo get the goals.

I think Ronaldo has a good chance of overtaking Drogba. In spite of a dramatic reduction in Ronaldo's price, I don't think the market has yet adjusted fully. If I were playing with higher stakes and did not have my fund discipline to think about, I would invest more on Ronaldo. So my recommendation is to take Ronaldo at the current price while it is there.

regards,

Fenland T.

p.s., Also pleased to report that the muppets have decided to leave the Valley for destinations unknown. I now feel that backing Watford for Rock Bottom in the premiership is fairly safe, and don't feel the need to hedge Charlton for an overall loss on that market (the largest liability the current fund had in the post-ante markets). I think that Charlton will continue to pull away from Watford. However, I have to sit this one out, and I won't be hedging until Charlton get to around the 10.0 mark.