Good evening,

predicting results in the Championship using stats is a pain. I've lost a fair bit of cash on this league betting on favourites who failed to win. I've been well and truly taken to the cleaners, so credit to the market odds-setters for winning so consistently.

I've been recording data from the matches, and trying to predict the results using, for instance, Rateform ratings, goal supremacy, and form over the previous five games.

Interestingly, none of the predictor variables I've recorded "work" very well in the Championship (they do in the Premiership, but that's another story!). The league is tight, and even teams near the bottom of the league regularly pull  "shock result" rabbits out of the hat. On Friday even lowly Luton were odds-on, or close to, if I recall correctly, to beat Southend, stranded at the bottom of the league, but could they do it, like odds on favourites should really do? Could they ****! Did I have money on the Luton win, yes I did. Madness!

Looking at this weekends results, who would have believed that Cardiff, the early pace setters in the league, could lose heavily at Hull. Well I would actually, now! Nothing surprises me in that league this year.

Not even Betfair odds show large relationships with Home win/ non-Home win outcomes in that league. They do show some significant relationships to Home win/ Away win/ Draw stats (not the same as home win / not home win), but even those relationships are not substantial, and have not helped so far, in making a profit from this league.

To cut to the chase. The Championship market consistently makes teams odds-on favourites when, on the basis of division results, many shouldn't be. Don't back away teams odds-on, even if they are promotion contenders, that is my advice, such as it is. I'll be going for home teams with longish odds from now on, however unlikely they appear in advance to win, as they show a paper profit to date, which is my bottom line.

regards,

FT

p.s.,

Having said all this, there are various teams that are rising to the top now, like a thin layer of cream on low-fat milk that takes a very long time to rise to the top.

For automatic promotion there are two places. The favourites at the beginning of the season were Birmingham and West Brom, and they are still my two favourites. Birmingham have started to win even when they get played off the park, while West Brom seem to be hitting a sweet spot, and sometimes thrashing teams. Of the others, I rate Southampton highly, and I think they should be good for a play off place. So that's them doomed then! In line with the current observations, betting on Southampton away from home across the season would have seen a loss of 13% (Football Anorak stats).

p.p.s., Colchester at home are a good bet so far. Betting on them as home underdogs would have seen a profit of 183% across the season to date (Football Anorak stats).

FT

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