Good Streebling,

I guess you might be getting a bit cheesed off with all this SPOTY Joe Calzaghe stuff. Only a few more days to go though, and possibly one more blog on the topic!

Anyway, it's all hotting up now in the SPOTY contest and the SPOTY market, as the field has been narrowed to 10 nominees. There has been a lot of market activity, the most prominent in my opinion being the movement of  Joe Calzaghe in the market.

Since my last blog entry on the subject a the odds on Joe Calzaghe and Phil Taylor the darts champ winning have shortened, Calzaghes substantially (from 30 to a current 8.8), while those on Zara Phillips have lengthened (from 5.0 to 6.8). If the current rate of change is sustained, Joe Calzaghe will overtake Zara Phillips as the 2cnd favourite by the day of the competition (Sunday this week from 7pm until 9pm).

There are probably several reasons why Calzaghes odds are shortening.

Probably most important is the fact that more people have become aware of his magnificent achievements in his career. This is the first time that I can recall when he has received the sheer volume of publicity outside of the boxing constituency.

Also, Calzaghe won the Welsh version of SPOTY earlier this week, beating Nicole Cooke into second place, and that brought him publicity (obviously!) - he apparently managed to smash the trophy and his mother was not best pleased (The Sun). Possibly, if there is such a thing as a Welsh vote, then some Welsh Cooke voters might conceivably decide to go for Calzaghe. Still this is unlikely to account for very much. Someone on Betfair forum has been ramping Andrew Murrays chances, by alluding to a Scottish national vote. It may exist, but given that Murray's odds are still available at around 80 on Betfair, there isn't much evidence of a Scottish block vote in this market.

Calzaghe has also put in some media appearances - apparently he was on daytime TV yesterday or today, on the BBC. Lots of newspapers have been running pieces on him. Even the Guardian, which favours the abolishment of boxing with gloves (and without for that matter), ran an article in it's sport section today on "the real sports personality of the year".

In the punters press, William Hills report having received many £10 and £20 pound bets, which they consider is more of an indication of a groundswell of support than a smaller number of large bets.

There has also been a poll on Yahoo which on a small and self-selected sample has Clarke just ahead of Calzaghe. Whether this poll is genuine or a sophisticated ramping strategy is unclear, but it if is to be believed, then Clarke and Calzaghe are clear front runners, with Clarke only a short head in front.

On the Betfair forum there has been plenty of analysis, as well as the usual ramping. One bloke banged on about how Clarke was "nailed on to win, bang out of order considering Clarke's bereavement. It's not supposed to be a crucifixion! Though there is something about Clarkes predicament here which brings biblical analogies to mind - but that's enough about that.

Perhaps most interestingly  the BBC website is emphasising Darren Clarkes statement that he does not want to win on a sympathy vote, though the BBC fall short, presumably for reasons of impartiality, of reporting another of Clarke's statements to the effect that he believes Calzaghe should win on merit.

So all in all, the market momentum is clearly with Calzaghe, and his odds should continue to come down at least until the contest goes in running on the night. Analysis of the market trends via analysis of the Betfair odds and volumes graphs shows a slight slowing of the rate at which Calzaghe is coming in. Take a look on the Betfair SPOTY winner odds screen and you'll see what I mean. If I had higher stakes to play with, I would have put more on. However, I have managed to get admittedly small amounds of money on at 50.0, 30.0, 16.0, and today a further couple of quid at 8.6. These odds cried out to be taken, even at this stage, given that the market indicators have been continuing to go Calzaghe's way.

I think he could come in a bit further yet. On Saturday night ITV1 has a fight night with Amir Khan fighting for his first title and Danny Williams and Audrey Harrison going toe-to-toe again. Scott Harrison has pulled out of his title fight as he hasn't made the weight, which means they may have a bit more time to spend talking, if he is in attendance, and/or profiling their main man, who is....... Joe Calzaghe. ITV will of course be aware that it is SPOTY the next day, and this may even be discussed. I have a sense that the BBC is doing it's best to give the public a chance not to vote for Darren Clarke, given the predicament, and I could envisage ITV sport backing this up with some Calzaghe coverage. It is also very possible that the News of the World will back Calzaghe, given that they sponsor the ITV boxing coverage (with the corny phrase "sponsored by the news of the world - big on boxing".

Having said all this, if someone gets badly hurt on Saturday night, then this would have a profound effect on the market going into the day of the award.

So it is all nicely set up for Sunday. Will there be a collective outpouring of national grief and sentiment for Clarke resulting in him receiving the award, or will people lay off voting for him given his painful personal bereavement, with the result that another nominee wins the award. You'd really need a crystal ball to sort that one out! The BBC editorial team can quite likely have a large influence on the outcome according to their edits and running orders on the night. I think Andrew Murray and Zara Phillips also have a chance of winning, and it is rumoured that Beth Tweddle will be doing some her gymnastics routine live on the night.

Unfortunately, given the aim of this fund, which is to reach a level where I can donate to charity from any winnings, I guess I will have to do the responsible thing and "green out", at least partially, before the contest goes in running on the night. Calzaghe is still an outsider to win, and I have to bear this in mind. I could make £30 quid which advances the fund a little, but it could grow by £350 if I kept everything on Calzaghe. I think that I'll hedge to get at least £20 whatever the outcome, and keep a potential £100 win riding on Calzaghe who has just got to be a good value given all the pointers. Which is probably more than you wanted to know! What would you do!?

all the best,

FT