Hi,

just a quick update on Sports Personality of the year. This is in my view a bit of a tragic SPOTY.  Less a celebration of sporting achievement than an outpouring of public sympathy for Darren Clarke. This years SPOTY has had some interesting twists and turns, but is becoming quite hard to follow.

As you may or may not know, Darren Clarke is strong odds on favourite for the award this year (as I write 1.5).

Today he has expressed some thoughts about being favoured for the award. See article entitle "Clarke unease over sympathy vote".

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/golf/6100420.stm

This has strong market implications, and as a consequence, there has been a bit of a run on a couple of other candidates, namely Joe Calzaghe, and Andrew Murray. Interestingly the other previously favoured candidates have not come in significantly (e.g., Ms Phillips the equestrian, or Mr Monty the cricketer or Mr Walliams, the comedian and amateur swimmer who raised loads of cash for charity).

My reading of this is that there is a strong chance that this is now a four or five horse race.

I don't think news of this has really permeated the markets fully yet, since Darren Clarke has only drifted very slightly in the market. In another article the Times newspaper apparently had an article focussing on DC (no dis to that other great sportsperson David Coulthard), which reiterated his discomfort regarding his position as favourite, and suggested that SPOTY go to a champion, namely Joe Calzaghe. I haven't read this so cannot vouch for whether the article exists or not, or whether it is just the product of some Betfair "sledging/ramping" or whatever it is called.

There has also been a recent article on the Sun newspaper website which supposedly leaks the top 10 nominees (i.e., those that have a chance of winning the award). The article suggests that  David Walliams is not on the shortlist, and that no footballer is either. If true, I think this is a real shame, since Walliams effort raised so much for charity, but apparently he is not considered a true sportsperson by the various sports editors who compiled the list. I suspect he will get some special award on the night. Neither was there mention of Jane Tomlinson, who has battled against a serious illness and inspirationally engaged in superb feats of endurance.

My own opinion, is that the field is narrowing to four candidates.

Darren Clarke, Joe Calzaghe, Andrew Murray, and Zara Phillips, with the possibility of Monty Panesar coming up on the rails if he captures a few wickets in the next test. Beth Tweddle may also come in with a late run, as I know she appeals to a lot of younger female athletes.

Of these, I would suggest that Darren Clarke is possibly overestimated as favourite, especially given his ambivalence about receiving the award. Zara Phillips, is probably also overestimated, though historical factors may come into play, and there is a certain symmetry about her receiving an award that her mother attained back in the day. Also, Gary Linecker would probably prefer to be interviewing her rather than Calzaghe or Murray! On sporting prowess, I would suggest that Murray and Calzaghe are the prime contenders. Murray, the excellent up and coming tennis player, one of only two players to beat the world's best Federer, is likely to receive the Scottish vote, which is not to be underestimated, as followers of the X-factor market will testify (those dancing and singing brothers have sure displayed great stickability).

Then there is Joe Calzaghe, who if sporting prowess were to be the sole criteria would surely be the favourite. I have talked about him before in early posts so won't bore you further with the details of his accomplishments. On news of the Darren Clarke interviews, Calzaghe has come in from 80 or 90 to 30 decimal odds. Even 30 seems too high to me.

He and Murray are the market steamers currently. What is strange is that there has been no significant slippage in Darren Clarke's odds. This may be the market being slow to react, or maybe the British public are going to foist the award upon him regardless.

As a fellow human being who has suffered close bereavements of my own. I would hope for him that he is left to his own devices and is able to regroup his life on  his own terms, and without the weight of the media intrusion. And then that he can regroup, rebound, win one of the really big titles, and be lauded on merit, rather than sympathy.

While it is admirable that he is receiving support from the British public, he should be allowed to "retire not out", and regroup at his own pace. Hopefully this can be arranged in a dignified way by the beeb, should this be his preference. A further negative aspect is that the remaining candidates, if they win, may feel that it was by default, in spite of their own achievements.

I would like to say sorry for the downbeat nature of this post.. I just had to get it off my chest, given my own experience of bereavements.

regards,

FT 

p.s., to declare my interests, My bank will grow a little if any of the candidates win (£10 if DC wins, more so if any of the other candidates win, especially Calzaghe or Murray (though if they do come down in price sufficiently I would trade out of those positions to  try and boost the total winnings to £20 - wow!). However, my noting of them as steamers is currently correct, and there is no intention of "ramping" here. If that were the intent I'd post on the Betfair forums where such practices occur every day, and which are presumably read by thousands of people.  To be honest, I feel  a bit ambivalent about being in this market at all now!