Evening all,

like many others, I was following the Man Utd/Chelsea fixture, and observed the odds changing on the post-ante markets today. When Man Utd took the lead in the game, they temporarily became marginal favourites, as I had expected they would if they got into a winning position against the titleholders. Very briefly, Man Utd went to 1.99 while Chelsea when out to 2 while Man Utd were winning 1-0. Current odds reflect pretty much the status quo before the game - i.e., Chelsea about 1.7, Man Utd about 2.7.

I did not take the opportunity to "go green" on the market in play. I expected Man Utd to go on to see out the game from a leading position, so expected a more favourable trading opportunity after the game finished. In the case of this particular market, there is all still to play for,and that may or may not prove to have been the best course of action.

Chelsea are away to Bolton midweek, and there is a significant chance that they will fail to pick up all three points. Man Utd have, on paper, an easier game at Old Trafford where they "entertain" Everton. The scenario still remains of an increased Man Utd lead going into December. I still believe that the value here is on Man Utd, and not Chelsea. Foremost in my mind is that Man Utd still have a 3 point lead and a far superior goal difference, and a superior PPG (points per game) average in the past year. In my view, much depends on the results in the next month. If Manchester get through December with their lead intact, then the transfer window will afford them the opportunity to strengthen the squad.

The issue of market exit points illustrated by these events and this market,  is currently exercising my mind at the moment. Each "investor"  has their own cost-benefit criteria regarding market exit points, which if my own experience is anything to go by, is informed by how much he or she stands to win or lose by staying in, or exiting the market. I have a lot to say on this, and will post my thoughts in due course. I believe these decisions should be data driven, rather than emotional responses based on fear (of losing money), or "greed". The market does not care one bit about you, but trading/gambling can be an uncomfortable or an exhilerating experience which can lead to poor cost-benefit decisions, leading to sub-optimal (bad!), not to say irrational, market entry and exit points. I know that my own trading has been informed by emotional factors at times, when for certain, a completely rational approach would have proved more successful.

I will post more thoughts on this issue when I have formulated my thoughts further.

all  the best,

FT