Hello and good evening / morning / afternoon,

Sometimes it is possible to recoup the situation when things are not going to plan, without having to resort to Martindale type tactics, by juggling your in-play liabilities, and paying very close attention to the game, and trading accordingly. When this happens, I think there is value in "going red" across the board (to minimise losses so far accumulated in play), and then taking up a new trading position, and relying mostly on "keeping your eye on the ball", during in play, and acting accordingly.

tonight's trading was frenetic.... The gory details are posted at the bottom of this post, but are not recommended viewing. They reveal a number of blind alleys, also, a reluctance to accept defeat. Being able to minimise, or even sometimes turn around losses is, I think, an important advantage of  in-play betting, as compared to traditional fixed-odds betting.

This is easier to achieve when you can actually watch the game (without Sky TV, something I can currently only do in about 20% of my plays). I find I can't get the same results from just following radio commentary and web-site stats. The visibility of the event is important - without it I find it more difficult to change positions in play on football matches.

I was trading on the Celtic v Man Utd game, and initially backed Man Utd to win.

This was all looking well for the first 30 minutes or so, but the odds on the draw were steadily creeping down, and it was starting to look like a loss for the evening. However, I managed to turn it round in play to come out with a winning position.

Total profit and loss for last 3 months

Boxing: -GBP10.60 | Horse Racing: GBP7.74 | Motor Sport: -GBP30.00 | Snooker: GBP2.28 | Soccer: GBP142.65 | Tennis: -GBP2.65 Total P&L: GBP109.42

I guess I was somewhat fortunate to have turned this trade around. The second half became something of a blur, interrupted by not 1 but 2 dropped wireless connections that required disabling and then re-enabling a driver. In each case that was 3 minutes off line in which anything could have happened, and my stake was completely vulnerable - not good. I must invest in a very long ethernet cable, and sort out the DIY cabling.

With regard to the strategy to "claw back" the stake, I was aware that I needed primarily to cover the draw, so the general strategy was to (painfully, and at ever decreasing odds) buy into the draw, which meant going into the red on all three positions, but trying to weight the losses according to current expectations of what the result would be. However, the win, such as it was, was achieved by laying the draw when either team was in high penetration positions on the field. All of this was done within a window of maximum liability that extended to a maximum loss at one point of £15. This was more than I would have cared to lose, but I was careful not to exceed that limit. Luckily, there was a goal scored during a period when the draw had been laid (about 3-5 seconds previously), and from then on it was easy to "go green" on each of the three match outcomes.

After the goal was scored, and with Celtic then 1-0 up, I laid Celtic, whose price obviously came in dramatically, to obtain an "all green" position. At this point this would have meant about +£4 for a Celtic win, +£6 for the draw, and +£25 for the Man Utd win. Once "in the green", then it all becomes easy, in contrast to the sinking feeling that comes from trying to minimise one's losses. In the event I only came out with the £2 quid or so win, as I thought a draw was likely, and laid Celtic further, which would have meant at least £6 if Man Utd equalised (and they nearly did with the penalty miss).

I missed "a sitter", when the Man Utd penalty came. For at least 30 seconds or so, there was doubt as to whether the stoppage would lead to a penalty. When the commentator suggested that a penalty would be awarded to Man Utd, there was still a 10 second or so gap before the market was suspended. I could have kicked myself about that, as I failed to capitalise by backing the draw at odds of 5.0. In the event the penalty was missed by Saha, so it turned out ok, from the point of view of the trading outcome, but given that more penalties are scored than missed, that was a definate "missed sitter" from a trading point of view.

The frenetic in-play strategy with frequent changing of positions is a strategy I've used to good effect before, but without Sky TV, as mentioned earlier, it is something I'm restricted to using only in a minority of games with terrestrial TV coverage. I am still, however, reluctant to get in Sky Sports, and this would ramp up the trading/gambling, which is something I'm not sure about. Also, the delay in receipt of transmissions puts me off a bit.

I've posted the full, unexpedited log of the evening's activities! Not pleasant viewing, and full of speculative cock-ups, and desperate ploys!

all the best, and good luck..

FT

p.s., I'd appreciate knowing whether anyone reads my posts, so if you do, then by all means feel free to make a comment.

The too much detail section

The following represents only a portion of the game, as there were many other bets, but it gives a flavour of the high level of activity involved in me trying to not lose on the game. I've just noticed it doesn't come out on the page, so sorry about that.. though you really don't need to see it anyway. Well, if you really want to then a right click and "view source" will reveal it.

2006-11-21 21:36 2735760491 2006-11-21 21:33 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds Comm Charged 5.02% On Net winnings of GBP2.39 - - - (0.12)   484.29 2006-11-21 21:36 2735726796 2006-11-21 21:22 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / The Draw Lay 15.00 1.42 Won   15.00 484.41 2006-11-21 21:36 2735725462 2006-11-21 21:22 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / The Draw Back 3.00 1.39 Lost (3.00)   469.41 2006-11-21 21:36 2735705133 2006-11-21 21:15 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / The Draw Back 3.00 1.61 Lost (3.00)   472.41 2006-11-21 21:36 2735675587 2006-11-21 21:07 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / The Draw Back 2.00 1.85 Lost (2.00)   475.41 2006-11-21 21:36 2735672289 2006-11-21 21:05 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / The Draw Back 3.00 1.94 Lost (3.00)   477.41 2006-11-21 21:36 2735579249 2006-11-21 20:34 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / The Draw Back 2.00 2.42 Lost (2.00)   480.41 2006-11-21 21:36 2735576001 2006-11-21 20:33 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / The Draw Back 3.00 2.40 Lost (3.00)   482.41 2006-11-21 21:36 2735555698 2006-11-21 20:27 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / The Draw Back 3.00 2.64 Lost (3.00)   485.41 2006-11-21 21:36 2735425662 2006-11-21 19:47 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / The Draw Lay 5.00 3.20 Won   5.00 488.41 2006-11-21 21:36 2735760491 2006-11-21 21:33 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / Celtic Lay 4.00 1.07 Lost (0.28)   483.41 2006-11-21 21:36 2735742495 2006-11-21 21:27 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / Celtic Lay 5.00 1.21 Lost (1.05)   483.69 2006-11-21 21:36 2735732042 2006-11-21 21:25 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / Celtic Lay 12.00 1.24 Lost (2.88)   484.74 2006-11-21 21:36 2735666508 2006-11-21 21:03 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / Celtic Back 3.00 6.20 Won   15.60 487.62 2006-11-21 21:36 2735715554 2006-11-21 21:19 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / Man Utd Lay 3.00 4.30 Won   3.00 472.02 2006-11-21 21:36 2735714593 2006-11-21 21:18 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / Man Utd Back 3.00 4.00 Lost (3.00)   469.02 2006-11-21 21:36 2735710590 2006-11-21 21:17 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / Man Utd Lay 3.00 4.10 Won   3.00 472.02 2006-11-21 21:36 2735707204 2006-11-21 21:16 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / Man Utd Back 5.00 3.80 Lost (5.00)   469.02 2006-11-21 21:36 2735686758 2006-11-21 21:10 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / Man Utd Lay 2.00 3.50 Won   2.00 474.02 2006-11-21 21:36 2735683500 2006-11-21 21:09 Fixtures 21 November Celtic v Man Utd / Match Odds / Man Utd Lay 2.00 3.40 Won   2.00 472.02

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