Hello and welcome,

After last weeks losses, compounded by ignoring my own staking rules, it has, I confess, been difficult to get back in the saddle.

Over the weekend, I missed some good opportunities through reticence.... I guess things go this way when betting confidence diminishes, for whatever reason. In the positive side, I guess it means that you don't lose more, but on the negative side, opportunities can pass you by. And I missed some very good value this weekend!

Case 1: I heard on Five Live on Saturday morning of a pivotal horse race in which the favourite, Detroit City was expected to win. If the horse did win, then his/her odds on the Champion Hurdle would steam (go down), affording an opportunity to profit in the market. So I tuned in to the radio commentary of the race, and simultaneously set up a bet on the Champion Hurdle post ante market. In running, Detroit City took a clear and ultimately decisive lead, but unfortunately I acted to late. I was too concerned about the horse winning, in spite of the fact that a place would probably have been enough to shorten the odds for the Champion Hurdle. By the time I went to place my bet, seconds after Detroit City came home in first place, everything from 10 thru 6 to 1 had been taken! Missed opportunity there. Get on early, or miss the boat! In hindsight though, I think that qualifies as a valuable learning experience.

Case 2: The Reading v Spurs game. The pre-match odds made Spurs favourites, and when they took the lead, Reading were available to back at 15.0. This looked extremely good value to me, given Reading's excellent start to the season, tempered by playing several top teams in the last few games, and Spurs poor start to the season. I set-up a £2 bet for Reading, but delayed because the confidence had gone out of my betting. Instead I wimped out and went to check the tables in the "Definitive guide to the betting exchanges" section on in-running football betting. By the time, I'd convinced myself that the 15.0 was indeed very good value at that early stage of the game, and was about to place my bet, the "suspended" graphic comes up. Reading had scored! I intrinsically knew those odds were a bargain, but was reluctant to get on because of the previous weeks experience. Another missed opportunity, but a good learning experience. I did, however later lay Reading in the premiership relegation market. They are a solid mid-table team, not relegation candidates. The match of the day highlights highlighted their attacking prowess, and I am confident that this bet will succeed. What's more, the shrewdie bloke in the pub who spends hours looking at league tables, agrees! I think laying Reading at 7.0 or thereabouts is still a sound bet.

Case 3: The Arsenal v Liverpool game. I fancied over 2.5 goals here, and backed +2.5 just after half-time. Because of last weeks indisciple, I forced myself to lay 2.5 if the odds went out to the extent that I could retrieve 30% of my stake. Annoyingly, when the ref got injured, and play was delayed, of course the odds on the 2.5 continued to lengthen. By the time the ref was back on his feet, it was time for me to exit the market. 1 minute after settling for a loss on the game, Arsenal scored their third goal! Grrrr!

I guess the moral of the tale is that the market cares not for whether you won or lost last week. It is important to try and retain as objective a view as possible of the market terrain, and not let winning or losing cloud your judgement. On a winning streak, I would have had no hesitation in my staking on these three outcomes, but because I was on a losing streak, it made a difference to my edge - a negative one. Getting out of the over 2.5 market was probably sensible, but the other 2 were definately missed opportunities where I did not take value when it was there to be had.

regards, and good luck in retaining your own objectivity!

FT