Hello, and Welcome again...

Bad news on the fenlandtiger front tonight.....

Battle lost, lesson learnt! Southend 1 - Manchester United 0

Man Utd top of Premiership lose to Southend bottom of the Championship.

Was the tiger on.. yes he was.    

And, as it turns out, on the wrong end of skinny odds with a larger than normal stake... Profits from last month gained through scrimping and scratching, wiped out in one foul swoop. 

Lessons learnt: Seasoned league ("coca cola") cup punters have learnt through experience to beware backing the favourite in these matches, and to look out for potential upsets, and back those.

Man Utd seemed  a safe bet at 1.4, and  normal stakes were trebled. Compounding this leap of faith, failure to get out of the market when Man Utd went behind, expecting them to come back and win. Even though Man Utd's attacking stats (shots, corners) suggested they would eventually prevail, Southend held out and Man Utd lost. A months profits lost, and back almost to square one. The goal of reaching £1000 and helping charitable causes through the fund suffered a major setback.

In hindsight, upping the stakes at this point was not a good idea. Hopefully similar mistakes will not be made again.

The Coca Cola cup

In the "Coca Cola" cup, the premiership teams often field weakened sides. It looked today as if Man Utd had fielded a strong enough side to win, as they fielded 9 or so internationals, including Ronaldo and Rooney. However, even though 8 out of 10 times maybe that team would have been strong enough, tonight it was not to be. I think it is important that compared to their regular Premiership team, they were still missing several of the more experienced players (Neville, Scholes and Giggs). Fielding a team that doesn't play together under the spotlights regularly is risky. The play can come down to the level of the underdog, for whom the occasion is their own "cup final".

Therefore, the value on these occasions is often on the underdog. Several seasoned punters on Punters Lounge take this approach to the "2cnd Cup", and with the mighty Man Utd losing tonight, and FT being stung, I understand why, the hard way. If betting on the "Coca Cola" (League) cup, a small wager on the underdog is possibly better value than a large wager on the odds on favourite. Maybe avoiding the temptation altogether is better still.

Interestingly, even the famous tipster Giovanni tipped Man Utd tonight, but it was "one of those nights". Maybe on another night Man Utd would have been 2 up inside 15 minutes.

Well done to Southend Utd.

The Southend fans must be deleriously happy this evening, and a big well done to Southend for holding out and securing a famous result from a great goal by Eastwood. Some prem teams will probably be eyeing him up, and also their winger, but hopefully Southend can hold on to them and their other best players and make a good project of staying in the Championship.

And what of fenlandtiger?

fenlandtiger retreats,  licks his wounds, and assesses damage done. As he retreats to his den will he decide he has had enough? Will he regroup and come back to the fray with renewed optimism, as his motto implies?! Is he actually just Basil Brush in disguise? Tune in next week to find out.

regards,

fenlandtiger