Hello and Welcome,

much as I've loved watching Jimmy White over the years, he is currently struggling for form, so odds of 1.5 on Ronnie O Sullivan against my generation's favourite hotshot seemed like an invitation in in-play betting this evening.  An hour later the win was in the bag. No idea how many frames that was over, but given the length of the match my best guess is that it was the best of 5, and Ronnie won 3-0. Not exactly well researched that one, just a wild guess given the length of the match. Thanks Jimmy - you're a star (as usual)! I really hope that J. White and S. Davis can continue to compete with the young guns for years to come. They were both "snooker legends" and it is great to see them still competing at such a high level. Only the greatest contenders can prolong their careers in this way, and they are both truly greats of the game.

Given that I have a profitable record so far doing this staking/gambling thing, at least since I started in August 2006, I am tempted to increase the amounts that I stake. However, I am mindful of the need to keep the bank relatively safe, and so I've disciplined myself to only raise the stakes should the bank increase. This is the basic principal of "Kelly staking" (though there are other considerations in Kelly's guidelines which are not touched on here, primarily to do with identification of "value bets"). Leaving aside the value bet aspects, which rely on certain assumptions which are often unverifiable, the basic principle is to increase the unit amount staked should the bank increase, and likewise decrease the unit amount staked should the bank shrink. This basically minimises the chances of "breaking the bank" (or to personalise things, your bank).

For example, if you're bank is £100 and you're staking £2 "per unit" (staking 1/50th of your bank for a "unit"), then if your bank increases to £150, your unit stake would increase to £3 (1/50th of the bank). Similarly if you're bank decreases to £50, your unit stake size would decrease to £1. When you should increase or decrease your stake, and by how much, is therefore determined by the size of your bank at a given time. Should you have "an edge", meaning that you reliably win with the odds that you back at over the long run, then the bank should grow. Conversely, of you do not have an edge, then your bank will diminish. However, through Kelly staking your bank should survive even without an edge, though your unit stake will decrease, and ultimately fall below the minimum stake threshold offered by bookmakers, or betting exhanges.

This is all expanded on in depth in what is a "seminal" book by J. Buchdal on sports betting. He discusses staking plans in great depth, and as a recent scholar of books in this domain, that is the one that I would recommend more highly than any other I have read to date.  

I'm following the general principle of Kelly staking, so i'll need a few more quid in the bank before increasing my unit stake from £5 to £6!

Weekend football

I've placed a double unit stake on the Scunthorpe v Brighton game in League 1 this weekend. Brighton lost 0-3 last weekend, which was seen as a major disaster by exasperated local fans, and an indicator of an impending relegation battle. Brighton are away to Scunthorpe who thrashed league leaders Nottingham Forest a few days ago, and who are absolutely flying at the moment ( I think it was 1-4, though I may be wrong, but it was a game I won on, on the basis of the posts on punters lounge a few days back). I've taken the Asian Handicap at 2.0 for the Scunny game. A dedicated Brighton supporter I spoke to this week, who goe's to every home game, expected Scunthorpe to thrash Brighton 6-0 this weekend. He may have been exaggerating, but I took from the conversation that the Asian handicap bets offer good value, hence I've doubled my usual stake on this one.

There are also some games in the under/over 2.5 market in the Premiership that have attracted my attention, but I haven't researched them in detail yet. If I get round to this tomorrow, I'll post up what I'm going to do.

Todays results

Snooker: GBP2.28 Total P&L: GBP2.28 
 
 
Snooker Showing 1 - 1 of 1 markets
 
Market Open date Profit/loss (GBP)
Snooker / O Sullivan v White : Match Odds 12-Oct-06 21:30  2.28