Hello and welcome,

The weekends football In play betting

In play betting on Denmark v Northern Ireland was not so good for the nerves since my basic strategy was to lay Denmark at fairly low odds and then back them when they looked like they might score (which was often!). The Danish team were hotter than a spicy Vindaloo in a sauna. They frequently turned defence to attack in a few seconds, and on another day might have netted several times. Reminiscent of the fine Danish team of the eighties, I would expect them to be strong challengers in their qualification group. Well done Northern Ireland though for holding out. A fighting rearguard performance.

My main two bets, were based on the twin inferences that England would not perform as well as their pre-match odds suggested, and that the Czech Republic v San Marino match would produce a lot of goals. Both worked out with less nail biting than expected. For the San Marino game the odds were on my side, as they tend to concede heavily against the higher ranked European teams. The England match was also fairly easy on the nails, with England lacking penetration in the last third. In play betting was easy, as they lacked pace. Unfortunately, I ended up playing in-running with only one quarter of the stake I'd originally intended to risk, having taken off the rest prior to the start of the game. I felt Rooney might well get back to top form, and didn't feel I could justify a higher proportion of my bank, but he is still not back to his magical best.

Also had a bit of a disaster in play when I had multiple screens open. Mistakenly submitted a lay bet on Czech republic when I had multiple windows running. I'd hypothetically examined the liability for laying a large amount at low odds, but at an exciting moment in-play actually submitted the bet. Luckily only lost £5 on that..phew!  

Wayne's form

Unfortunately for England Rooney still looks out of sorts, and there is all sorts of speculation in the media about why this is. One possibility that has not been aired is that he "has peaked", at least in his current attacking role.

I played quite a lot of football back in the day, and saw quite a few times that the some of the most talented players often did not ultimately have the physique to carry them through over the long run against vastly inferior talents with blessed with more athletic physiques. Once the initial blast of bull-like strength conferred by the teenage growth spurt begins to subside, some highly talented sportsmen, in terms of their vision and creativity, and marksmanship can falter. 

Rooney looks like he's carrying some excess pounds, and his general shape and the way he plays suggests to me that he will pick up more than his fair share of injuries, and may not in future years maintain the level of athleticism needed to continue operating at the level he has been. I hope to be wrong about that. Perhaps he would be better off in a league where the emphasis was more on skill than athleticism. Rooney is the treasure of the England lineup, our best player by far. It would be a real shame if he did not play for the England team for many years to come. I see him ultimately not as an attacking midfielder, but as a creative defensive midfield player along the lines of some of the Brazillian players like Dunga who played great creative football without necessarily needing to be tremendous athletes.

Yet more on J.C. and SPOTY

J.Calzaghe. gave an interview on Five Live today about his place in boxing history, his title defence on Saturday and even mentioned SPOTY! (they "don't like winners"). It is pretty difficult to see him winning SPOTY, though a continuation of his climb up the leaderboard is still a strong possibility during the next week. I lost count of the number of times he referred to his opponents and fights where he talked about (not verbatim) "beating the bloke up". It's a tough game all right. All credit to Joe for being such a tremendous champ, but a little humility, and perhaps some media coaching might help endear him to the public even more. I reckon if his fights hadn't pretty much all been on Sky until recently, he would be much more widely known and supported.

It would be quite amusing to see him interviewed by Sue Barker (or Gary Lineker).

Sue Barker: "Well Joe, it's been a fantastic year for you, what was the highlight for you?"

J.C.: "Well the highlight has to be against Lacey in the nth. I had him on the ropes and I caught him right on the temple, and followed it up with a sharp smack to the ribs, and I could see I'd really hurt him and knocked all the fight out of him. Then I couldn't wait to finish him off.  See that's why I'm the best in the world, see because I hit my opponents hard right where it hurts. And it's all down to my dad.

Sue Barker: I see. Well well done Joe. And your future plans?

J.C.: Well I'd like to fight Bernard Hopkins. See me and him are both the top fighters in our division, though I am obviously better than him, and it's a fight I'd love to have because I am the best and I think I could beat him up easily. And of course it would be a great fight for the  public.

Sue Barker: Right... err, Some day Joe, after this massively successful career you've had, you'll eventually hang up the gloves. What will Joe Calzaghe be doing then?

J.C.: Well Sue, I may be hanging up the gloves, but I'm sure Joe Calzaghe will continue to beat people up.

Sue Barker: I see. Well there you have it. Thank you Joe.

J.C.: What are you looking at Lineker. You can wipe that smirk off your face right now or I'll wipe it off for you.

The acorn bank

Across the games this weekend I risked about £100 of my bank, so a return close to 25% for the weekend is satisfying. Given all the time I've spent, I could have earned more per hour working at McDonalds, but that to me is not the point. The point of the "small stakes gambler" exercise is to take a small fund, make it grow, and if successful donate a third of the winnings. Someone once said "From small acorns mighty oaks do grow" (or something like that) - to which one obvious reply is, "some do, most don't". To give mine the best chance possible it needs to be nurtured carefully in it's early months.

bye for now,

FT

Results

For last 3 months.

Boxing: -GBP7.00 | Horse Racing: GBP7.74 | Motor Sport: -GBP32.50 | Soccer: GBP164.39 | Tennis: -GBP4.65 Total P&L: GBP127.98

For this weekend.

Soccer: GBP23.12 Total P&L: GBP23.12  
 
Soccer Showing 1 - 9 of 9 markets
 
Market Open date Profit/loss (GBP)
Soccer / Brighton v Blackpool : Over/Under 1.5 Goals                 2.75
Soccer / Brighton v Blackpool : Match Odds                                0.52
Soccer / Italy v Ukraine : Match Odds                                          0.76
Soccer / Denmark v N Ireland : Match Odds                                3.92
Soccer / England v FYR Macedonia : Match Odds                       7.60
Soccer / Scotland v France : Match Odds                                   -0.10
Soccer / Czech Republic v San Marino : Match Odds                 -5.00
Soccer / Czech Republic v San Marino : Over/Under 4.5 Goals  17.57
Soccer / Wales v Slovakia : Match Odds                                    -4.90