As suspected, Joe Calzaghe has started creeping up the leaderboard for Sports Personality of the Year. He talked to the media in the past couple of days (report on BBC website) and said that he didn't expect to win the award. His public profile is increasing somewhat in the run - up to his world title fight on the 14th, and his odds have shortened a bit as a result. Assuming he wins his title defense and carries forward his tremendous unbeaten run (extending all the way back to the end of the Eubank era), all he'll need to win the SPOTY award is to do something else like swim the Atlantic (as long as it's on BBC), or win a Celebrity dancing or cooking competition (again BBC converage advised Joe). :-)

Had a bit of a disastrous day backing league 1 football yesterday (6th). Backed Swansea and Yeovil to win - neither did. I might stick clear of that league from now on as my current strike rate of 0 from 4 games in that league needs no further comment.

A potentially nail-biting few hours awaits today as the Euro qualifiers (7th Oct) have come around again and I'm in the market.

I have opted on two bets / potential trades which are pretty risky to say the least.

England are red hot favourites to beat Macedonia (1.10 to back as I write this while Macedonia can be backed at 40-50). I've layed England at 1.11 as a starting position for in-play trading on the game. My thinking is that Macedonia held England for 45 minutes in their corresponding home fixture a few weeks back. A similar performance would enable a profit to be made on the game from the opening position as the odds on the draw start to come down. On the other hand, an early England goal, and.. "goodnight Vienna" - goodbye stake. I think Wayne Rooney may well come back into form today (gulp!)...... Still, even if I lose on this one, it will mean that England are a big step closer towards qualifying for Euro 08.

Other main bet is on the Czech Republic v San Marino fixture to have more than 4.5 goals. The game San Marino national team travel on the back of a morale sapping13-0 defeat at home to Germany. Their coach has regrouped, and has responded to that crushing defeat by picking an almost completely different team for this game! The Czech team will be trying to and bolster their goal difference here by aiming to emulate what Germany achieved. The last 8 games involving San Marino average out at about 5 goals a game, with substantially more scored when facing high ranking opponents. I've taken odds of 1.5 implying a 65% probability of +4.5 goals which on the face of it looks plausible.  

An exciting, nail biting afternoon in prospect!

bye for now,

FT